Monthly Archives: May 2012

Thursday 31 May 2012

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MAY 2012

The end of an awful month! Looking at June the worry is that the causes of May’s downturn (failed performance of Southern European economies, with consequences for growth in China and USA) have not been fixed. G20 opinion (including IMF and ECB) is that the problems affecting the eurozone can only be addressed by eurozone leaders.

EUROPE

Eurozone

Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank considers the current structure of the eurozone to be “unsustainable”, criticising political leaders for indecision, procrastination and half measures. [More].

Spain

The drain of deposits from Southern European banks continues. Spain’s central bank has reported that investors withdrew EUR66bn in Mar 2012, twice the previous monthly record of EUR34bn in Dec 2011. [More].

USA MARKET

Economy

  • Private Sector Job Growth: ADP Payrolls estimate that 133,000 private sector jobs were created in May 2012, below the expectation of 150,000.
  • Unemployment: Initial jobless claims rose to 383,000 last week from 373,000 the week before. Official unemployment numbers will be released tomorrow.

Commodities

  • Gold Futures (Jun): down $0.80 to $1,563/oz
  • Oil Futures (WTI LSC Jul): down $1.29 to $86.53/barrel.

Treasury yields

Yields continue to fall to record lows:

  • 30-year: 2.65%, down from 2.71% yesterday
  • 10-year: 1.56% – new record low, down from 1.62% yesterday
  • 5-year: 0.66%, down from 0.69 yesterday

Market moving news

  • JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley had a terrible month, down 22.9% and 22.7% respectively.

Share market indices

  • S+P 500: 1,310 -0.22%
  • DJIA: 12,394 -0.21%
  • NASDAQ: 2,827 -0.35%

Tech stock price movements

  • Substantial rises (more than 2.0%)
    • Zynga [NASDAQ:ZNGA]: up 6.64% to $6.26
    • Facebook [NASDAQ:FB]: up 5.00% to $29.60
  • Substantial falls (more than 2.0%)
    • Netflix [NASDAQ:NFLX]: down 5.79% to $63.44
    • Groupon [NASDAQ:GRPN]: down 4.14% to $10.64
    • Micron [NASDAQ:MU]: down 2.50% to $5.84
    • Linkedin [NYSE:LNKD]: down 2.18% to $95.99
    • Rackspace [NYSE:RAX]: down 2.08% to $49.37

PORTFOLIO

Portfolio Index

  • Portfolio Index (USD): 1.024 -0.31%
  • AUD 1.00 = USD 0.9780 +0.15%
  • Portfolio Index (AUD): 1.047 -0.46%

Tech stock news

  • Facebook [NASDAQ:FB] reached a post IPO low of $26.30 today, down 30.8% from its IPO price of $38 just 9 days ago (18 May 2012). FB bounced off that floor to close UP 5% at $29.60. Zynga [NASDAQ:ZNGA] rose with FB, up 6.64% to $6.26.

NASDAQ

  • Apple [AAPL] $577.73 -0.25%
  • Amazon [AMZN] $212.91 +1.76%
  • Google [GOOG] $580.86 -1.25%

NYSE

  • Linkedin [LNKD] $96.10 -2.07%
  • VMware [VMW] $93.01 -1.79%

Wednesday 30 May 2012

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EUROPE

Spain

Bank depositors are withdrawing their money from Spanish banks as risks increase. European organisations have offered support, but the concern is that there are no solutions – just passing problems around Europe.

USA MARKET

Commodities

  • Gold Futures (Jun): up $14.70 to $1,563/oz
  • Oil Futures (WTI LSC Jul): down $2.94 to $87.82/barrel.
  • The average pump price of unleaded petrol has fallen to $3.63/gallon, down from $3.82/gallon last month. This is a timely relief for consumers as the summer holiday/driving commences.

Treasury yields

As fear about the debt and banking crisis in Southern Europe (esp Spain, Portugal and Greece) grows, investors have been buying US Treasury bonds, with a sharp fall in yields today. The day’s low of 1.61% for the 10-year bond is a record low yield:

  • 30-year: 2.71%, down from 2.85% yesterday
  • 10-year: 1.62%, down from 1.75% yesterday
  • 5-year: 0.69%, down from 0.78% yesterday

Share market indices

The Southern European debt crisis continues to worry investors, who are also looking for consistent signs of a US recovery. Lower pending home sales data counters last month’s rises in sales of new and existing homes.

  • S+P 500: 1,313 -1.43%
  • DJIA: 12,420 -1.28%
  • NASDAQ: 2,837 -1.17%

Tech outlook

Tech stock news

  • Apple [NASDAQ:AAPL] CEO Tim Cook has confirmed his “intense interest” in developing the Apple TV, which will wirelessly interface with the iPhone and iPad. Analysts forecast an announcement late this year with a product release in 2013. [More]
  • Following yesterday’s forecast of a trading loss this quarter, Research in Motion [NASDAQ:RIMM] began the day with a low price of $9.92. its lowest price since 2003.

Tech stock price movements

  • Substantial falls (more than 2.0%)
    • RIM [NASDAQ:RIMM]: down 7.83% to $10.35
    • Groupon [NASDAQ:GRPN]: down 5.85% to $11.10
    • Advanced Micro Devices [NYSE:AMD]: down 4.80% to $6.15
    • Ebay [NASDAQ:EBAY]: down 4.58 to $39.59
    • Zynga [NASDAQ:ZNGA]: down 3.61% to $5.87
    • Yelp [NYSE:YELP]: down 3.34% to $16.50
    • Salesforce [NYSE:CRM]: down 3.20% to $141.03
    • Netflix [NASDAQ:MU]: down 3.02% to $67.34
    • Rackspace [NYSE:RAX]: down 2.57% to $50.43
    • Amazon [NASDAQ:AMZN]: down 2.27% to $209.23
    • Facebook [NASDAQ:FB]: down 2.25% to $28.19
    • Micron [NASDAQ:MU]: down 2.12% to $5.99

PORTFOLIO

Portfolio Index

The AUD fell to USD0.97101 at AEST 0800 31 May 2012 – this is the AUD’s lowest exchange rate since late Nov 2011.

  • Portfolio Index (USD): 1.027 +0.66%
  • AUD 1.00 = USD 0.9765 -1.23%
  • Portfolio Index (AUD): 1.052 +1.91%

NASDAQ

  • Apple [AAPL] $579.17 +1.21%
  • Amazon [AMZN] $209.23 -2.57%
  • Google [GOOG] $588.23 -1.03%

NYSE

  • Linkedin [LNKD] $98.13 -1.81%
  • VMware [VMW] $94.71 -0.18%

Tuesday 29 May 2012

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USA MARKET

US economy

  • The Conference Board index of consumer confidence fell for the third consecutive month to 64.9 (lowest level since the peak in Jan 2012). This is out of synch with other measures and indicators which indicate rising consumer confidence.
  • There is more evidence of an improvement in the housing market. The S&P Case/Shiller index of capital city home prices shows a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.1% for Mar 2012, positive, but lower than the 0.2% achieved in Feb 2012.

    Previously reported housing market news for Apr 2012:

    • New home sales: up 3.3% (average price $235,700)
    • Existing home sales: up 3.4% (average price $177,400)
    • Leading indicator: pending home sales index: down to 95.5 (released 30 May 2012)

Commodities

  • Gold Futures (Jun): down $20.20 to $1,549/oz
  • Oil Futures (WTI LSC Jul):down $0.10 to $90.76/barrel.

Treasury yields

  • 30-year: 2.85%
  • 10-year: 1.75%
  • 5-year: 0.78%

Share market indices

  • S+P 500: 1,332 +1.11%
  • DJIA: 12,581 +1.01%
  • NASDAQ: 2,871 +1.18%

Tech news

  • Research in Motion [NASDAQ:RIMM] has warned it will produce an operating loss in the Jun 2012 quarter. RIMM’s problem is its inability to compete with Apple and Android smartphone platforms and apps. Blackberry’s share of the smartphone market has fallen from 44% in 2009 to 10% in 2011. WedBush Securities (via NBR interview) expects RIMM to go the way of Palm unless it joins another ecosystem by partnering or absorption. RIMM is down more than 75% over the last 12 months, from $42.90 a year ago to below $10 today.

Tech stock price movements

  • Substantial rises (more than 2.0%)
    • Advanced Micro Devices [NYSE:AMD]: up 3.70% to $6.45
    • Ebay [NASDAQ:EBAY]: up 2.83% to $41.49
    • Micron [NASDAQ:MU]: up 2.68% to $6.12
    • CSC [NYSE:CSC]: up 2.55% to $27.30
    • Hewlett-Packard [NYSE:HPQ]: up 2.10% to $22.80
    • RIM [NASDAQ:RIMM]: up 2.09% to $11.23 – but fell more than 10% (from open price) to $9.50 in after hours trading.
  • Substantial falls (more than 2.0%)
    • Pandora [NASDAQ:P]: down 10.26% to $10.58
    • Facebook [NASDAQ:FB]: down 9.62% to $28.84
    • Zynga [NASDAQ:ZNGA]: down 7.87% to $6.09
    • Yelp [NYSE:YELP]: down 6.16% to $17.07
    • Groupon [NASDAQ:GRPN]: down 2.16% to $11.79

PORTFOLIO

Portfolio Index

  • Portfolio Index (USD): 1.020 +1.56%
  • AUD 1.00 = USD 0.9887 -0.20%
  • Portfolio Index (AUD): 1.032 +1.77%

NASDAQ

  • Apple [AAPL] $572.27 +1.77%
  • Amazon [AMZN] $214.75 +0.87%
  • Google [GOOG] $594.34 +0.48%

NYSE

  • Linkedin [LNKD] $99.94 +1.44%
  • VMware [VMW] $94.89 +0.93%

Monday 28 May 2012

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USA MARKET

Markets closed for the Memorial Day holiday.

We honour all who have served in the defence of their country.

Share market indices

  • S+P 500: 1,318
  • DJIA: 12,455
  • NASDAQ: 2,838

PORTFOLIO

Portfolio Index

  • Portfolio Index (USD): 1.005
  • AUD 1.00 = USD 0.9907
  • Portfolio Index (AUD): 1.014

NASDAQ

  • Apple [AAPL] $562.29
  • Amazon [AMZN] $212.89
  • Google [GOOG] $591.53

NYSE

  • Linkedin [LNKD] $98.52
  • VMware [VMW] $94.02

Weekly Review: 25 May 2012

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OUTLOOK

Continuing concerns

  • The Southern European economic crisis, the possibility of a Greek exit from the eurozone, and concerns about reduced economic growth in China continue to fuel US investor uncertainty.
  • The US CBO alert on the “fiscal cliff” coming up at the end of 2012 is also a concern – especially the sunset of tax breaks on capital gains and dividends.

Europe: Greece

Whilst eurozone leaders indicate support for Greece remaining in the scheme, their governments are facing the reality that the 17 Jun 2012 election may deliver a coalition government that is not prepared to deliver on the commitments Greece has made to its lenders. Discussion on the process and impact of a return to the drachma concludes that the impacts on Greece will be terrible, and for the remainder of the community it will be expensive, but affordable. In the meantime Greek depositors continue to export their funds from Greek banks – around 25% of Greek bank deposits have been exported over the past 2 years.

Europe: Spain

The poor condition of Spanish banks has been represented by the request by Bankia for a government bailout of EUR19bn. Bankia has revised its 2011 earnings from a profit of EUR0.3bn to a loss of EUR2.98bn.

USA MARKET

Economy

  • The upcoming week has 4 trading days, commencing with the Memorial Day long weekend which starts the Summer driving season.
  • Public debt (24 May 2012): $15.712 trillion, down a little from $15.713 trillion (17 May 2012). The statutory borrowing limit is $16.4 trillion.
  • Treasury yields:
    • 30-year: 2.85%, up 5 basis points from 2.80%
    • 10-year: 1.75%, up 3 basis points from 1.72%
    • 5-year: 0.76%, up 1 basis point from 0.75%
  • Gold Futures (Jun): $1,569/oz down 1.4% from $1,592/oz last Friday.
  • Oil Futures (WTI LSC Jul): $90.86/barrel down 0.7% from $91.48/barrel last Friday.

US market indices

NBR reports that the number of “down days” in May 2012 is the worst since 1903.

  • S+P 500: 1,318 – up 1.78% from 1,295. Up 4, down 1
  • DJIA: 12,455 – up 0.70% from 12,369. Up 2, down 3
  • NASDAQ: 2,838 – up 2.12% from 2,779. Up 2, down 3

PORTFOLIO

Portfolio index

The Portfolio index is a weighted portfolio performance index based on the composition of our portfolio, using official end of week stock prices reported by NASDAQ.

  • Portfolio Index (USD): 1.005
  • AUD 1.00 = USD 0.9855
  • Portfolio Index (AUD): 1.020

Apple

  • Friday close: $562.29, up 6.0% from $530.38.
  • Market value: $524bn up 5.9% from $495bn
  • P/E (historical): 13.71, up from 12.93
  • P/E (1 year fwd): 12.03, up from 11.26
  • Target (1 year): consensus $740, range $500 – $910.

Amazon

  • Friday close: $212.89, down 0.4% from $213.85.
  • Market value: $96.9bn, down 0.4% from $97.3bn
  • P/E (historical): 176, down from 177
  • P/E (1 year fwd): 186, up from 184
  • Target (1 year): consensus $250, range $210 – $285.

Google

  • Friday close: $591.53, down 1.5% from $600.40.
  • Market value: $153bn, down 1.3% from $155bn
  • P/E (historical): 17.95, down from 18.22
  • P/E (1 year fwd): 16.18, down from 16.73
  • Target (1 year): consensus $750, range $645 – $850.

LinkedIn

  • Friday close: $98.52, down 0.5% from $99.02.
  • Market value: $6.14bn, down 0.5% from $6.17bn
  • P/E (historical): 821 down from 825,
  • P/E (1 year fwd): 494, down from 525
  • Target (1 year): consensus $132.5, range $92 – $145.

VMware

  • Friday close: $94.02, down 4.0% from $97.90.
  • Market value: $12.0bn down 4.0% from $12.5bn
  • P/E (historical): 51.66, down from 53.79
  • P/E (1 year fwd): 48.20, down from 50.74
  • Target (1 year): consensus $123, range $95 – $135.

CHIEF HAPPINESS OFFICERS

Diogenes

Diogenes is a 14-year old Jack Russell terrier employed as the Chief Happiness Officer of Bunting Pty Ltd. In mid May 2012 Xrays, ultrasound scans, biopsy and blood tests confirmed that our CHO has malignant T-cell alimentary lymphoma (cancer) [More], and a painful decision was made not to commence a program of chemotherapy. Instead, the response has focused on maximising our CHO’s quality of life – his own happiness.

Felix

Felix is a 7-year old cat employed as Chief Happiness Officer at eGov Pty Ltd since Jan 2007. When not at work, Felix is a fearless street fighter and rat catcher. Last week Felix was diagnosed with advanced, chronic kidney disease [More].

CHO scores

We have developed a happiness score for each CHO. The scores are assessed at the end of each week by the CEO of each company, and represents the CEOs’ assessments of the quality of life of each CHO. We’ll include CHO scores as long as they are > 0. The initial CHO scores are:

  • Diogenes: 7/10
  • Felix: 7/10

Friday 25 May 2012

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EUROPE

Greece

About 25% of deposits has been withdrawn and transferred out of the country over the last 2 years.

Spain

One of Spain’s largest banks, Bankia, has sought funding support from the government as deposits have fallen and the bad quality of the bank’s assets becomes evident.

USA MARKET

US economy

The Thomson Reuters, University of Michican index of consumer sentiment indicates that consumers are more confident in May 2012 (index = 79.3) than in Apr 2012 (index = 76.4). This is the highest level since the start of the GFC in 2007. The increase in sentiment measured by the index is consistent with the increase in new and existing home sales.

Commodities

  • Gold Futures (Jun): up $11.40 to $1,569/oz
  • Oil Futures (WTI LSC Jul): up $0.20 to $90.86/barrel. The average pump price per gallon for gasoline (petrol) is $3.67 – down from $3.94 in early Apr 2012.

Treasury yields

  • 30-year: 2.85%
  • 10-year: 1.75%
  • 5-year: 0.76%

Share market indices

  • S+P 500: 1,318 -0.22%
  • DJIA: 12,455 -0.60%
  • NASDAQ: 2,838 -0.07%

Tech stock news

  • The Motley Fool has set out its assessment of the top 7 big tech stocks that have produced the best price performance so far this year (2012) [More]. Our portfolio includes 2 of the top 5 (excluding Visa and EMC):
    • Salesforce.com [NYSE:CRM] +44.9%   Lloyd says: I don’t like the high P/E: 1,625!
    • Apple [NASDAQ:AAPL] +38.8%   Lloyd says: Apple’s comparable P/E is 12.
    • eBay [NASDAQ:EBAY] +33.0%
    • VMware [NYSE:VMW] +13.0%
    • Microsoft [NASDAQ:MSFT] +11.9%

    We’ve excluded Visa (which we don’t classify as a tech company) – and we’ve excluded EMC (because we’re not into component manufacturers, and EMC owns 80% of VMware (which we do have) anyway).

  • Piper Jaffray’s Eugene Munster foresees an Apple TV announcement in Dec 2012 for release in the first half of 2013 (based on information from component manufacturers), The TV would be controlled by iPad or iPhone and would include Siri. [More]

Tech stock price movements

  • Substantial rises (more than 2.0%)
    • Advanced Micro Devices [NYSE:AMD]: up 3.32% to $6.22
    • RIM [NASDAQ:RIMM]: up 2.71% to $11.00
    • Hewlett-Packard [NYSE:HPQ]: up 2.57% to $22.33
  • Substantial falls (more than 2.0%)
    • Facebook [NASDAQ:FB]: down 3.39% to $31.91
    • Google [NASDAQ:GOOG]: up 2.01% to $591.53
    • Yelp [NYSE:YELP]: down 3.71% to $18.19
    • Zynga [NASDAQ:ZNGA]: down 2.79% to $6.61

PORTFOLIO

NASDAQ

  • Apple [AAPL] $562.29 -0.54%
  • Amazon [AMZN] $212.89 -1.09%
  • Google [GOOG] $591.53 -2.01%

NYSE

  • Linkedin [LNKD] $98.52 -0.28%
  • VMware [VMW] $94.02 -1.48%

AUSTRALIAN CURRENCY

Portfolio valuation rate: AUD1.00 = USD 0.9800

Australian exchange rates

Date Time AEST USD/AUD EUR/AUD GBP/AUD CAD/AUD
26 May 2012 06:35 0.97537 0.77930 0.62279 1.00497
25 May 2012 20:50 0.97884 0.77822 0.62434 1.00373
25 May 2012 06:05 0.97660 0.77885 0.62310 1.00273

Thursday 24 May 2012

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EUROPE

UK economy

GDP has fallen for 2 consecutive quarters, and the UK is officially back in recession. GDP fell 0.3% in the Dec 2011 and Mar 2011 quarters. [More]

CHINA

Manufacturing growth fell in May 2012, probably because of the impacts of the European debt crisis on demand.

USA MARKET

Commodities

  • Gold Futures (Jun): up $9.10 to $1,558/oz
  • Oil Futures (WTI LSC Jun): up $0.785 to $90.66/barrel

Treasury yields

  • 30-year: 2.88%
  • 10-year: 1.78%
  • 5-year: 0.79%

Share market indices

  • S+P 500: 1,321 +0.14%
  • DJIA: 12,520 +0.27%
  • NASDAQ: 2,839 -0.36%

Tech stock price movements

  • Substantial rises (more than 2.0%)
    • Pandora [NASDAQ:P]: up 11.71% to $11.54
    • Facebook [NASDAQ:FB]: up 3.22% to $33.03
    • Hewlett-Packard [NYSE:HPQ]: up 3.13% to $21.74
  • Substantial falls (more than 2.0%)
    • VMware [NYSE:VMW]: down 6.14% to $95.29
    • LinkedIn [NYSE:LNKD]: down 4.77% to $98.62
    • Zynga [NASDAQ:ZNGA]: down 3.82% to $6.80
    • RIM [NASDAQ:RIMM]: down 3.43% to $10.71
    • Salesforce [NYSE.CRM]: down 3.05% to $146.01
    • Netflix [NASDAQ:NFLX]: down 2.28% to $70.27
    • Oracle [NASDAQ:ORCL]: down 2.10% to $26.12

PORTFOLIO

NASDAQ

  • Apple [AAPL] $565.32 -0.91%
  • Amazon [AMZN] $215.24 -0.93%
  • Google [GOOG] $603.66-0.95%

NYSE

  • Linkedin [LNKD] $98.73 -4.66%
  • VMware [VMW] $95.32 -6.11%

AUSTRALIAN CURRENCY

Portfolio valuation rate: AUD1.00 = USD 0.9821

Australian exchange rates

Date Time AEST USD/AUD EUR/AUD GBP/AUD CAD/AUD
25 May 2012 06:05 0.97660 0.77885 0.62310 1.00273
25 May 2012 05:00 0.97284 0.77646 0.62148 1.00036
25 May 2012 04:00 0.97226 0.77579 0.62105 1.00068
24 May 2012 20:25 0.97855 0.77776 0.62358 1.00194
24 May 2012 11:50 0.97436 0.77500 0.62097 0.999439

Wednesday 23 May 2012

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USA MARKET

US economy

Sales of new homes in Apr 2012 rose 3.3% to 343,000, recovering some of the 7.3% fall to 332,000 in Mar 2012. The 3.3% new home sales rise matches the 3.4% rise for existing homes reported yesterday. The average price of a new home in Apr 2012 was $235,700, compared to the $177,400 average price for an existing home in Apr 2012.

Commodities

  • Gold Futures (Jun): down $28.20 to $1,548/oz
  • Oil Futures (WTI LSC Jun): down $1.95 to $89.90/barrel

Treasury yields

  • 30-year: 2.82%
  • 10-year: 1.74%
  • 5-year: 0.74%

It’s interesting to compare the US 10-year bond yield with Europe [More]:

  • USA: 1.74%
  • Germany: 1.38%
  • France: 2.76%
  • Greece: 29.9%

Share market indices

  • S+P 500: 1,319 +0.17%
  • DJIA: 12,496 -0.05%
  • NASDAQ: 2,850 +0.39%

Tech stock news

Facebook

Shareholders in Facebook [NASDAQ:FB] have launched at least 2 class actions over the IPO process, with defendants including

  • founder and CEO: Mark Zuckerberg
  • investors selling shares into the market (e.g. Thiel, Breyer, Andreeesen), and
  • IPO bankers/advisors/underwriters (e.g. Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan).

Regulators, including the Federal Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Massachussetts State SEC, have also commenced an investigation. The Federal case focusses on compliance with Regulation Fair Disclosure, which requires company guidance (e.g. bankers’ downgrades of Facebook) to be made available to all potential and actual investors. [More].

Mobiles cream PCs

In reporting the difficulties in controlling the 0.8% decline in its quarterly PC sales revenue, Hewlett-Packard [NYSE:HPQ] said it had faced unusually hard competition, and that customers appear to be holding off purchases. It also said customers appeared to be more interested in mobile devices, such as Apple’s [NASDAQ:AAPL] iPhone and iPad touchscreen tablet. HPQ plans to focus on cloud computing for growth. [More].

Dell [NASDAQ:DELL] has also reported the same level of decline in quarterly sales revenue, noting that consumers were putting off computer purchases, and instead focusing their attention on mobile devices, such as Apple’s [NASDAQ:AAPL] iPhone and iPad touchscreen tablet [More].

Tech stock price movements

  • Substantial rises (more than 2.0%)
    • Zillow [NASDAQ:Z]: up 8.65% to $40.19
    • Netflix [NASDAQ:NFLX]: up 6.20% to $71.91
    • Zynga [NASDAQ:ZNGA]: up 3.97% to $7.07
    • Facebook [NASDAQ:FB]: up 3.23% to $32.00
    • Apple [NASDAQ:AAPL]: up 2.44% to $570.56
    • LinkedIn [NYSE:LNKD]: down 2.20% to $103.56
  • Substantial falls (more than 2.0%)
    • Dell [NASDAQ:DELL]: down 17.18% to $12.49
    • Hewlett-Packard [NYSE:HPQ]: down 3.21% to $21.08 – HPQ rose in after hours trading following its Apr 2012 (Q2) quarterly earnings report: EPS = $0.98 (vs expected $0.91), but a long way down from $1.24 in Q2 2011. HPQ also announced plans to cut 27,000 jobs (8% of its workforce) within the next 2 years. By 17:00 HPQ was up 5.5% to $22.98. [More]
    • Intel [NASDAQ:INTC]: down 2.3% to $25.44 – This would be a consequence of the reduced PC sales performance of Dell and Hewlett-Packard
    • Microsoft [NASDAQ:MSFT]: down 2.18% to $29.11

PORTFOLIO

NASDAQ

  • Apple [AAPL] $570.56 +2.44%
  • Amazon [AMZN] $217.28 +0.90%
  • Google [GOOG] $609.46 +1.44%

NYSE

  • Linkedin [LNKD] $103.56 +2.20%
  • VMware [VMW] $101.52 +0.62%

AUSTRALIAN CURRENCY

Portfolio valuation rate: AUD1.00 = USD 0.9808

Australian exchange rates

Date Time AEST USD/AUD EUR/AUD GBP/AUD CAD/AUD
24 May 2012 11:50 0.97436 0.77500 0.62097 0.999439
24 May 2012 07:05 0.97489 0.77479 0.62130 0.998823
24 May 2012 05:40 0.97568 0.77527 0.62128 0.999604
23 May 2012 17:50 0.97763 0.77132 0.62083 0.998259

Tuesday 22 May 2012

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USA MARKET

US economy

  • The Congressional Budget Office has warned that the US economy would contract at an annual rate of 1.3% in the first half of 2013 if lawmakers allow tax cuts to expire and government spending cuts to take effect in Jan 2012. This scenario, referred to as the “fiscal cliff”, is likely if the impasse in Congress continues as it did last year over the statutory borrowing limit which, by the way, will be the key topic shortly after the Nov 2012 Presidential election. Of direct concern to investors, the fiscal cliff will see a rise in tax on dividends and capital gains. [More]
  • Sales of previously occupied home rose 3.4% in Apr 2012 to an annual rate of 4.62m homes – the first rise in 3 months, and the highest level since May 2010. The median sales price also rose to $177,400, up more than 10% since last year. [More]

Commodities

  • Gold Futures (Jun): down $12.10 to $1,576/oz
  • Oil Futures (WTI LSC Jun): down $0.91 to $91.66/barrel

Treasury yields

  • 30-year: 2.87%
  • 10-year: 1.77%
  • 5-year: 0.76%

Share market indices

  • S+P 500: 1,317 +0.06%
  • DJIA: 12,503 -0.01%
  • NASDAQ: 2,839 -0.29%

Tech stock news

  • Reuters reports that the lead bankers/underwriters for the Facebook IPO (Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs) cut their forecasts during the IPO roadshow following an amended filing to the SEC on 9 May 2012. [More]. Facebook [NASDAQ:FB] continued its decline with an early morning low of $30.90, followed by buying action and then a selloff for the remainder of the day closing down 8.90% at $31.00 (down 18.4% on the $38 IPO price). Zynga [NASDAQ:ZNGA] fell 4.09% to $6.80.
  • Dell [NASDAQ:DELL] fell 12.7% to $13.16 in after hours trading following its disappointing earnings report for FY2012 (EPS $0.55) and outlook for 2013 (EPS $0.43).

Tech stock price movements

  • Tech investors were in a selling mood all day today, mainly on concerns that Greece will leave the eurozone and the consequences of that scenario. Any price rises occurred early in pre-market trading or within the first hour of trading – based on home sales and economic optimism – but solid price decline across the tech sector set in for the remainder of the day.
  • Substantial rises (more than 2.0%)
    • LinkedIn [NYSE:LNKD]: up 4.64% to $101.33
  • Substantial falls (more than 2.0%)
    • Facebook [NASDAQ:FB]: down 8.90% to $31.00
    • ClearWire [NASDAQ:CLWR]: down 8.3% to $1.30
    • Yelp [NYSE:YELP]: down 6.74% to $18.00
    • Netflix [NASDAQ:NFLX]: down 5.62% to $57.71
    • Zynga [NASDAQ:ZNGA]: down 4.09% to $6.80
    • RIM [NASDAQ:RIMM]: down 3.83% to $11.06
    • Groupon [NASDAQ:GRPN]: down 3.55% to $11.95
    • Advanced Micro Devices [NYSE:AMD]: down 2.22% to $6.16
    • Google [NASDAQ:GOOG]: down 2.17% to $600.80

PORTFOLIO

NASDAQ

  • Apple [AAPL] $556.97 -0.77%
  • Amazon [AMZN] $215.33 -1.27%
  • Google [GOOG] $600.08 -2.17%

NYSE

  • Linkedin [LNKD] $101.33 +4.64%
  • VMware [VMW] $100.89 -0.47%

AUSTRALIAN CURRENCY

Australia is the world’s happiest nation according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). This assessment is based on income, jobs, housing and health. That assessment doesn’t agree with local assessments that most Australians are worried and feel financial insecure – this sentiment driving the restraint in consumer spending and the rise in household savings ratio.

Portfolio valuation rate: AUD1.00 = USD 0.9846

Australian exchange rates

Date Time AEST USD/AUD EUR/AUD GBP/AUD CAD/AUD
23 May 2012 13:40 0.97576 0.77011 0.61925 0.997863
23 May 2012 05:45 0.98096 0.77349 0.62246 1.00287
22 May 2012 06:40 0.99126 0.77359 0.62600 1.00820

Monday 21 May 2012

by

EUROPE

  • Mohamed El-Erian considers a Greek exit from the eurozone is probably inevitable: “A Greek exit will be expensive and messy, but it’s probably inevitable and therefore we should plan for it.” [More]

USA MARKET

Commodities

  • Gold Futures (Jun): down $3.20 to $1,589/oz
  • Oil Futures (WTI LSC Jun): up $1.09 to $92.57/barrel

Treasury yields

  • 30-year: 2.81%
  • 10-year: 1.74%
  • 5-year: 0.74%

Share market indices

  • S+P 500: 1,316 +1.60%
  • DJIA: 12,504 +1.09% (135 points)
  • NASDAQ: 2,847 +2.46%

Tech stock news

  • Facebook [NASDAQ:FB] nosedived 13.68% to $33.00 just before 10am. Wingman Zynga [NASDAQ:ZNGA] took a similar hit of 8.11% to $6.57 at about the same time. These two companies are closely tied: Facebook makes about 19% of its revenue from Zynga (games and ads), and Zynga makes about 90% of its revenue from Facebook. Facebook closed the day down 10.99% at $34.03 and Zynga recovered to close at $7.09, down just 0.98%. Lead underwriter Morgan Stanley and NASDAQ OMX Group Inc.’s computer systems are the targets of blame and criticism for Friday’s failed launch and today’s fall [More].
    Lloyd says: Sure am glad with the decision to sit this out for a few weeks (at least).
  • Five service providers plan to develop a cable wifi network to compete with cellphone and satellite networks. The network will be up within the next few months. The companies involved are: Brighthouse, CableVision, Comcast, Cox and Time Warner.
  • Last week (14-20 May 2012) Google Chrome’s market share (32.8%) exceeded that of Internet Explorer (31.9%). Mozilla (Firefox) market share was 25%. [More]

Tech stock price movements

  • Substantial rises (more than 2.0%)
    • Apple [NASDAQ:AAPL]: up 5.83% to $561.28
    • Advanced Micro Devices [NYSE:AMD]: up 4.83% to $6.30
    • RIM [NASDAQ:RIMM]: up 4.64% to $11.50
    • Rackspace [NYSE:RAX]: up 4.24% to $50.69
    • Yelp [NYSE:YELP]: up 4.01% to $19.39
    • VMware [NYSE:VMW]: up 3.54% to $101.37
    • CSC [NYSE:CSC]: up 3.11% to $26.55
    • Ebay [NASDAQ:EBAY]: up 3.00% to $39.51
    • Micron Technology [NASDAQ:MU]: up 2.76% to $5.78
    • Oracle [NASDAQ:ORCL]: up 2.54% to $26.26
    • Netflix [NASDAQ:NFLX]: up 2.54% to $71.74
    • Salesforce [NYSE:CRM]: up 2.53% to $149.26
    • Google [NASDAQ:GOOG]: up 2.28% to $614.11
  • Substantial falls (more than 2.0%)
    • LinkedIn [NYSE:LNKD]: down 2.20% to $96.84

PORTFOLIO

NASDAQ

  • Apple [AAPL] $561.28 +5.83%
  • Amazon [AMZN] $218.11 +1.99%
  • Google [GOOG] $614.11 +2.28%

NYSE

  • Linkedin [LNKD] $96.84 -2.20%
  • VMware [VMW] $101.37 +3.54%

AUSTRALIAN CURRENCY

Portfolio valuation rate: AUD1.00 = USD 0.9961

Australian exchange rates

Date Time AEST USD/AUD EUR/AUD GBP/AUD CAD/AUD
22 May 2012 06:40 0.99126 0.77359 0.62600 1.00820
22 May 2012 05:00 0.98815 0.77261 0.62515 1.00682
21 May 2012 23:10 0.98222 0.77132 0.62212 1.00420
21 May 2012 20:30 0.98502 0.77133 0.62281 1.00458
21 May 2012 14:10 0.98570 0.77043 0.62257 1.00431
19 May 2012 08:35 0.98435 0.77020 0.62238 1.00625