Daily Archives: May 5, 2012

Weekly Review: 4 May 2012

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OUTLOOK

USA: The outlook for the 6 month period from April – September looks weak, picking up in October.

Tech: The Facebook IPO in 2 weeks will hopefully provide a lift to tech stock investors.

Europe: This weekend may see new instability in France and Greece with elections decided on 6 May 2012. A key issue in both elections is the conflict between reduction of fiscal deficit and public debt and their impact on economic growth and further consequences for employment.

Australia: On Tuesday 8 May 2012 Australian Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan is expected to present his first balanced budget.

USA MARKET

Economy

  • Public debt (3 May 2012): $15,671.202bn, up $46.856bn from $15,624.346bn (26 Apr 2012).
  • Unemployment (Apr 2012): 8.1%

US market indices

  • S+P 500: 1,369 – down 2.5% from 1,404. Rises: 1, Falls: 4
  • DJIA: 13,038 – down 1.4% (190 points) from 13,228. Rises: 1, Falls: 4
  • NASDAQ: 2,959 – down 3.6% from 3,069. Rises: 2, Falls: 3

PORTFOLIO

Apple

  • Friday close: $565.25, down 6.3% from $603.00.
  • Market value: $527bn down 6.2% from $562bn
  • P/E (historical): 13.78, down from 14.7
  • P/E (1 year fwd): 12.50, down from 13.29
  • Target (1 year): consensus $730, range $500 – $910.

Amazon

  • Friday close: $223.99, down 1.2% from $226.85.
  • Market value: $101.9bn, down 1.3% from $103.2bn
  • P/E (historical): 185, down from 187
  • P/E (1 year fwd): 193, up from 144
  • Target (1 year): consensus $250, range $210 – $285. All targets increased: consensus up from $222.5, range up from $180 – $250.

Google

  • Friday close: $596.97, down 2.9% from $614.98.
  • Market value: $154bn, down 3.1% from $159bn
  • P/E (historical): 18.11, down from 18.66
  • P/E (1 year fwd): 16.40, down from 16.52
  • Target (1 year): consensus $750, range $645 – $850.

LinkedIn

  • Friday close: $117.30, up 6.9% from $109.72.
  • Market value: $4.81bn, up 3.0% from $4.67bn
  • P/E (historical): 1,173, up from 1,097
  • P/E (1 year fwd): 497, up from 439
  • Target (1 year): consensus $102.5, range $87 – $134. Consensus raised from $100, range raised from $75 – $134.

VMware

  • Friday close: $108.02, down 3.9% from $112.41.
  • Market value: $13.7bn, down 2.8% from $14.1bn
  • P/E (historical): 59.35, down from 61.76
  • P/E (1 year fwd): 57.67, up from 56.88
  • Target (1 year): consensus $122, range $95 – $135. Range raised from $90 – $135

USD/AUD

The rate for valuation of the portfolio was AUD 1.00 = USD 1.0312 (incl fx), down from 1.0420 on 27 Apr 2012.