Fri 4 Aug 2017


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In Portfolioticker today

Today at the stock market

bull/bearThe USD surged by the most in six weeks and Treasuries fell after hiring data from last month came in stronger than forecast, underpinning the case for tighter monetary policy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose a 9th straight day to close at a record.

  • The S&P 500 rose 0.19% to close at 2,476.83, finishing higher by that amount over the 5 days.
  • The Dow rose 0.30% to close at 22,092.81.
  • The Nasdaq Composite Index rose +0.18% to close at 6,351.56 on Friday to pare its loss in the week to 0.3%.
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1%, pushing its gain in the 5 days to 1.1%.
  • The MSCI All-Country World Index was little changed Friday, and up 0.4% for the week.
  • Emerging-market shares added 0.3%.

The USD averted a fourth straight weekly slide after government figures showed employers added workers at a solid clip and wage growth picked up in Jul 2017. The S&P 500 Index ended one point below an all-time high to cap a weekly gain, while the Dow’s winning streak is the longest since Feb 2017, as the weak USD boosts megacaps. The 10-year Treasury yield rose as the notes pared a weekly advance. Oil trimmed a weekly loss, while gold slumped.

Broad-based hiring in Jul 2017 along with stronger household incomes and buoyant consumer confidence may give the Federal Reserve reason to raise interest rates later this year as it seeks to normalize monetary policy. The USD’s bounce propelled it higher from the lowest since 2015 as investors sought faster growth in economies outside the U.S.

Markets meanwhile continued to shrug at mounting signs that President Donald Trump’s policy agenda has run aground, with assets from stocks to the USD largely looking past reports Thursday that Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into Russia’s meddling in the 2016 election has intensified.Bloomberg

Market indices

:-) The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record 22,092.81, up 0.30% on yesterday’s record of 22026.10 (8 straight records).

Index Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 16 YTD
S&P 500 SPX (INX) 2,476.83 +0.18% 2,238.83 +10.63%
DJIA INDU 22,092.81 +0.30% 19,762.60 +11.79%
NASDAQ IXIC 6,351.56 +0.17% 5,383.12 +17.99%

The portfolio today

USD and AUD denominated indices over the past 52 weeks (Chart: Bunting)
^ USD and AUD denominated indices over the past 52 weeks Chart: Bunting

Index values

:-) Our USD-denominated index closed on a record weekly close of 2.787 after reaching a record daily close of 2.799 on 2 Aug 2017.

Index Currency Today Change 31 Dec 16 YTD
USD-denominated Index USD 2.787 +0.47% 2.105 +32.41%
Valuation Rate USD/AUD 0.79816 -0.22% 0.72663 +9.84%
AUD-denominated Index AUD 3.495 +0.68% 2.895 +20.72%

Portfolio stock prices

Stock Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 16 YTD
Alphabet A GOOGL $945.79 +0.58% $792.45 +19.35%
Alphabet C GOOG $927.96 +0.47% $771.82 +20.23%
Apple AAPL $156.39 +0.53% $115.82 +35.02%
Amazon AMZN $987.58 +0.07% $749.87 +31.70%
Ebay EBAY $35.62 -0.25% $29.69 +19.97%
Facebook FB $169.62 +0.61% $115.05 +47.43%
PayPal PYPL $58.86 +0.75% $39.47 +49.12%
Twitter TWTR $16.29 +0.68% $16.30 -0.07%
Visa V $100.89 +0.30% $78.02 +29.31%
VMware VMW $93.09 +0.71% $78.73 +18.23%

FX: USD/AUD

USD

DXY movements
^ Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (DXY) movements today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: Bloomberg

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (DXY) rose 0.5%, putting it up 0.3% on the week.
The EUR fell 0.8% to USD 1.1773.
Britain’s GBP fell 0.8% to $1.3039.
Japan’s JPY fell 0.5% to 110.64 per USD.
Bloomberg

AUD

AUD movements
^ AUD movements against the USD today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: xe.com

Oil and Gas Futures

Futures prices

West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 0.9% to $49.48/barrel, paring a decline for the week that had reached more than 2%.Bloomberg

Prices are as at 15:49 ET

  • NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI): $48.48/barrel +0.92% Chart
  • ICE (London) Brent North Sea Crude: $52.31/barrel +0.58% Chart
  • NYMEX Natural gas futures: $2.78/MMBTU -0.64% Chart

flag_australia AU: Retail Trade. Jun 2017

Press Release Extract [ser_72]

Australian retail turnover rose 0.3 per cent in June 2017 in seasonally adjusted terms, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures, following a rise of 0.6 per cent in May 2017.

“In seasonally adjusted terms in June 2017, we saw rises in Household goods retailing (0.9 per cent), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.5 per cent), Clothing footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.8 per cent) and Other retailing (0.2 per cent),” said Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys. “There was a fall in Department stores (-0.3 per cent), while Food retailing (0.0 per cent) was relatively unchanged.”

In seasonally adjusted terms there were rises in New South Wales (0.5 per cent), Queensland (0.7 per cent), South Australia (0.3 per cent), Tasmania (0.6 per cent), the Northern Territory (1.2 per cent) and Western Australia (0.1 per cent). There were falls in Victoria (-0.3 per cent) and the Australian Capital Territory (-0.1 per cent).

The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.4 per cent in June 2017 following a 0.4 per cent rise in May 2017. Compared to June 2016, the trend estimate rose 3.6 per cent.

Online retail turnover contributed 4.1 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms.

In seasonally adjusted volume terms, turnover rose 1.5 per cent in the June quarter 2017, following a rise of 0.2 per cent in the March quarter 2017. The largest contributor to the rise was Household goods retailing, which rose 2.5 per cent in seasonally adjusted volume terms in the June quarter 2017.

CURRENT PRICES

  • The trend estimate rose 0.4% in June 2017. This follows a rise of 0.4% in May 2017 and a rise of 0.4% in April 2017.
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.3% in June 2017. This follows a rise of 0.6% in May 2017 and a rise of 1.0% in April 2017.
  • In trend terms, Australian turnover rose 3.6% in June 2017 compared with June 2016.
  • The following industries rose in trend terms this June 2017: Household goods (0.9%), Food retailing (0.2%), Other retailing (0.5%), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.4%), Clothing footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.2%), and Department stores (0.3%).
  • The following states and territories rose in trend terms in June 2017: New South Wales (0.5%), Victoria (0.5%), Queensland (0.2%), South Australia (0.4%), Tasmania (0.7%), Western Australia (0.1%), the Australian Capital Territory (0.5%), and the Northern Territory (0.2%).

VOLUME MEASURES

  • In volume terms, the trend estimate for Australian turnover rose 0.8% in the June quarter 2017.

TOTAL RETAIL – MONTHLY

  • In current prices, the trend estimate for Australian turnover rose 0.4% in June 2017 following a rise of 0.4% in May 2017 and a rise of 0.4% in April 2017.
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for Australian turnover rose 0.3% in June 2017 following a rise of 0.6% in May 2017 and a rise of 1.0% in April 2017.
  • The original estimate for Australian turnover rose 0.1% in June 2017. The original estimate for chains and other larger retailers rose 0.8% in June 2017. The original estimate for smaller retailers fell 1.3% in June 2017.

TOTAL RETAIL – QUARTERLY

  • In volume terms, the seasonally adjusted estimate for the June quarter 2017 rose 1.5% following a rise of 0.2% in the March quarter 2017 and a rise of 0.8% in the December quarter 2016.
  • In the June quarter 2017, the seasonally adjusted estimate rose in volume terms for Household goods (2.5%), Food retailing (1.0%), Other retailing (1.9%), Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (2.8%), Department stores (3.1%), and Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.8%).
  • The Implicit Price Deflator for Australian turnover fell 0.1% in seasonally adjusted terms in the June quarter 2017.

TOTAL RETAIL – BY STATE

  • The following states and territories rose in trend terms in June 2017: New South Wales (0.5%), Victoria (0.5%), Queensland (0.2%), South Australia (0.4%), Tasmania (0.7%), Western Australia (0.1%), the Australian Capital Territory (0.5%), and the Northern Territory (0.2%).
  • The following states and territories rose in seasonally adjusted terms in June 2017: New South Wales (0.5%), Queensland (0.7%), South Australia (0.3%), Tasmania (0.6%), the Northern Territory (1.2%), and Western Australia (0.1%). Victoria (-0.3%), and the Australian Capital Territory (-0.1%) fell in seasonally adjusted terms in June 2017.

Australian Bureau of Statistics, “8501.0 – Retail Trade. Jun 2017“, 4 Aug 2017 More

flag_usa US: International Trade in Goods and Services. Jun 2017

Press Release Extract [ser_150]

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $43.6 billion in June, down $2.7 billion from $46.4 billion in May, revised. June exports were $194.4 billion, $2.4 billion more than May exports. June imports were $238.0 billion, $0.4 billion less than May imports.

The June decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $2.1 billion to $65.2 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.6 billion to $21.6 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $26.7 billion, or 10.7 percent, from the same period in 2016. Exports increased $64.9 billion or 6.0 percent. Imports increased $91.7 billion or 6.9 percent.

Goods and Services Three-Month Moving Averages

The average goods and services deficit decreased $0.5 billion to $45.9 billion for the three months ending in June.

  • Average exports of goods and services increased $1.0 billion to $192.5 billion in June.
  • Average imports of goods and services increased $0.4 billion to $238.4 billion in June.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $4.6 billion from the three months ending in June 2016.

  • Average exports of goods and services increased $9.9 billion from June 2016.
  • Average imports of goods and services increased $14.5 billion from June 2016.

Exports

Exports of goods increased $1.7 billion to $129.0 billion in June.
Exports of goods on a Census basis increased $1.9 billion.

  • Capital goods increased $0.8 billion.
  • Foods, feeds, and beverages increased $0.7 billion.
    o Soybeans increased $0.6 billion.
  • Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines increased $0.4 billion.
  • Consumer goods decreased $0.3 billion.
    o Pharmaceutical preparations decreased $0.4 billion. Net balance of payments adjustments decreased $0.2 billion.

Exports of services increased $0.6 billion to $65.4 billion in June.

  • Travel (for all purposes including education) increased $0.3 billion.
  • Transport, which includes freight and port services and passenger fares, increased $0.1 billion.
  • Financial services increased $0.1 billion.

Imports

Imports of goods decreased $0.4 billion to $194.3 billion in June.
Imports of goods on a Census basis decreased $0.3 billion.

  • Industrial supplies and materials decreased $1.1 billion.
    o Crude oil decreased $1.4 billion.
  • Consumer goods decreased $0.7 billion.
    o Cell phones and other household goods decreased $0.9 billion.
  • Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines increased $1.0 billion.
    o Passenger cars increased $1.3 billion.
  • Net balance of payments adjustments decreased $0.1 billion.

Imports of services were nearly unchanged at $43.8 billion in June, reflecting small and offsetting changes across categories.

US Census Bureau, “International Trade in Goods and Services. Jun 2017“, 4 Aug 2017 (08:30) More

flag_usa US: Employment Situation. Jul 2017

Press Release Extract [ser_74]

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in food services and drinking places, professional and business services, and health care.

Household Survey Data

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.3 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 7.0 million, changed little in July. After declining earlier in the year, the unemployment rate has shown little movement in recent months.

us_ue_20170804

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (4.0 percent), adult women (4.0 percent), teenagers (13.2 percent), Whites (3.8 percent), Blacks (7.4 percent), Asians (3.8 percent), and Hispanics (5.1 percent) showed little or no change in July.

Among the unemployed, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.8 million in July and accounted for 25.9 percent of the unemployed.

The labor force participation rate, at 62.9 percent, changed little in July and has shown little movement on net over the past year. The employment-population ratio (60.2 percent) was also little changed in July but is up by 0.4 percentage point over the year.

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers), at 5.3 million, was essentially unchanged in July. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

In July, 1.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, down by 321,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.

Among the marginally attached, there were 536,000 discouraged workers in July, essentially unchanged over the year. Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.1 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in July had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in July. Job gains occurred in food services and drinking places, professional and business services, and health care. Employment growth has averaged 184,000 per month thus far this year, in line with the average monthly gain in 2016 (+187,000).

us_jobs_20170804

Employment in food services and drinking places rose by 53,000 in July. The industry has added 313,000 jobs over the year.

Professional and business services added 49,000 jobs in July, in line with its average monthly job gain over the prior 12 months.

In July, health care employment increased by 39,000, with job gains occurring in ambulatory health care services (+30,000) and hospitals (+7,000). Health care has added 327,000 jobs over the past year.

Employment in mining was essentially unchanged in July (+1,000). From a recent low in October 2016 through June, the industry had added an average of 7,000 jobs per month.

Employment in other major industries, including construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, and government, showed little change over the month.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.5 hours in July. In manufacturing, the workweek was also unchanged at 40.9 hours, and overtime remained at 3.3 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was 33.7 hours for the fourth consecutive month.

In July, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 9 cents to $26.36. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 65 cents, or 2.5 percent. In July, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 6 cents to $22.10.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down from +152,000 to +145,000, and the change for June was revised up from +222,000 to +231,000. With these revisions, employment gains in May and June combined were 2,000 more than previously reported. Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 195,000 per month.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, “The Employment Situation (Jobs Report). Jul 2017“, 4 Aug 2017 (08:30) More

flag_japan Japan update

Currency: USD/JPY

JPY movements
^ JPY movements against the USD over the past month (mouseover for inverse) Chart: xe.com

Stockmarket: Nikkei 225

N225 movements
^ Nikkei N225 movements over the past week Chart: Google Finance

flag_china China update

Currency: USD/CNY

CNY movements
^ CNY movements against the USD over the past month (mouseover for inverse) Chart: xe.com

Stockmarket: CSI300

CSI300 movements
^ Shanghai CSI300 movements over the past week Chart: Google Finance