Mon 7 Aug 2017


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In Portfolioticker today

Today at the stock market

bull/bearU.S. stocks gained modestly Monday with the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average continuing their record runs, as strength in technology and consumer staples balanced out weakness in energy. Oil dropped amid speculation that an abundance of supply will weigh on the market.

  • The S&P 500 rose 0.16% to a record high of 2,480.91.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.12% to a record high of 22,118.42. This was the DJIA’s 10th straight gain and 9th straight record close.
  • The Nasdaq 100 Index rose 0.51% to 6,383.77.
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.1%.
  • U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index rose 0.3% to the highest in 2 months.
  • Germany’s DAX Index fell 0.3%.
  • Japan’s Topix index rose 0.5%. Toyota Motor Corp. jumped 2% after it beat first-quarter profit estimates and raised its full-year forecast on Friday.
  • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Indexrose 0.9% with miners and banks advancing.
  • South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.1%.
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.5%.
  • The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index added 0.5% to its highest since Dec 2007.
  • The MSCI All-Country World Index rose 0.3%.

European equities slipped after a report showed German industrial data unexpectedly fell in Jun 2017, with declines in travel and leisure shares offsetting advances for ArcelorMittal and Anglo American Plc after iron ore and steel prices increased.

West Texas Intermediate crude sat below $50/barrel as producers gathered in Abu Dhabi to address oversupply issues. The S&P 500 Energy Index was down 1%, making it the worst performing group in the broader gauge.

The EUR remained resilient as investors show increasing confidence in European growth amid disappointment over U.S. President Donald Trump’s failure get tax reform and infrastructure spending plans off the ground. Monday’s report from Germany is unlikely to mark a turning point for either the nation’s economy or the wider bloc, which has successfully navigated a series of political challenges while expansion accelerates.Bloomberg

Trading volume was relatively light as investors had little reason to make big bets with the U.S. Congress and President Donald Trump on vacation and a stronger-than-expected earnings season drawing to a close.

“Today there’s a lack of conviction either way. There’s no reason to be a seller yet and there’s no reason to be a buyer at these levels as earnings season winds down and you don’t have much in the way of economic news this week,” said Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Boston Private Wealth in New York.

Some investors were looking into underperforming sectors, including retail, anticipating a lift from in-store back-to-school shopping, according to Rick Meckler, president of LibertyView Capital Management in Jersey City, New Jersey. “What you’re really seeing is very minor sector rotation,” said Meckler.

Robust Jun 2017 quarter earnings have boosted the broader market in recent weeks and a strong Jul 2017 employment report on Friday added to positive sentiment.

Analysts, on average, expect S&P 500 earnings to have expanded 12% in the Jun 2017 quarter and project earnings up 9.3% for the Sep 2017 quarter, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. However, the recent run-up has also sparked concerns about stretched valuations.

The S&P 500, which is up about 11% this year, is trading at 18 times expected earnings, compared to its 10-year average of 14, according to Thomson Reuters Datastream.Reuters

Lloyd says: Comparing P/E for our portfolio stocks to the S&P500 P/E of 18 (as of last Friday):

  • Stocks with a P/E below 18 include: EBAY (5.38), AAPL (17.77)
  • Stocks with a P/E above 18 include: VMW (31.34), GOOGL (34.33), V (37.51), FB (38.64), PYPL (47.09), AMZN (251)

Market indices

:-) The S&P500 closed on a record high of 2,480.91 beating its 26 Jul 2017 record of 2,477.83.
:-) The DJIA closed on a record high of 22,118.42, up 0.12% on Friday’s record of 22,092.81 (9th straight record close).

Index Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 16 YTD
S&P 500 SPX (INX) 2,480.91 +0.16% 2,238.83 +10.81%
DJIA INDU 22,118.42 +0.11% 19,762.60 +11.92%
NASDAQ IXIC 6,383.77 +0.50% 5,383.12 +18.58%

The portfolio today

USD and AUD denominated indices over the past 52 weeks (Chart: Bunting)
^ USD and AUD denominated indices over the past 52 weeks Chart: Bunting

Index values

Index Currency Today Change 31 Dec 16 YTD
USD-denominated Index USD 2.818 +1.10% 2.105 +33.88%
Valuation Rate USD/AUD 0.79606 -0.27% 0.72663 +9.55%
AUD-denominated Index AUD 3.543 +1.37% 2.895 +22.37%

Portfolio stock prices

:-) Apple closed on a record high of $158.59 beating its 2 Aug 2017 record of $157.14
:-) Visa closed on a record high of $101.49 beating its 2 Aug 2017 record of $101.28

Stock Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 16 YTD
Alphabet A GOOGL $945.75 0.00% $792.45 +19.34%
Alphabet C GOOG $929.36 +0.15% $771.82 +20.41%
Apple AAPL $158.59 +1.41% $115.82 +36.92%
Amazon AMZN $992.27 +0.47% $749.87 +32.32%
Ebay EBAY $36.11 +1.38% $29.69 +21.62%
Facebook FB $171.98 +1.39% $115.05 +49.48%
PayPal PYPL $59.62 +1.29% $39.47 +51.05%
Twitter TWTR $16.40 +0.68% $16.30 +0.61%
Visa V $101.49 +0.59% $78.02 +30.08%
VMware VMW $93.42 +0.35% $78.73 +18.65%

FX: USD/AUD

USD

DXY movements
^ Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (DXY) movements today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: Bloomberg

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (DXY) rose 0.1%, extending its gains from Friday.
The EUR rose 0.2% to USD 1.1794.
Britain’s GBP fell 0.1% to USD 1.3031, the weakest in 2 weeks.
Japan’s JPY dipped 0.1% to 110.74 per USD.
Bloomberg

AUD

AUD movements
^ AUD movements against the USD today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: xe.com

Oil and Gas Futures

Futures prices

Prices are as at 15:46 ET

  • NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI): $49.35/barrel -0.46% Chart
  • ICE (London) Brent North Sea Crude: $52.29/barrel -0.25% Chart
  • NYMEX Natural gas futures: $2.80/MMBTU +1.05% Chart

flag_usa US: Consumer Credit. Jun 2017

Press Comment: Washington Post

American consumers increased their borrowing at a slower pace in June, as the category that includes auto and student loans posted the smallest gain in a year.

The Federal Reserve said Monday that overall consumer credit expanded by $12.4 billion in June, down from May’s $18.3 billion increase and less than economists had been expecting.

The credit report is closely watched for clues about the direction of consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of economic activity.

Non-revolving credit, which includes auto and student loans, rose $8.3 billion, down from an $11.4 billion jump in May and the smallest amount since a $7 billion increase in June 2016. The category that includes credit cards climbed $4.1 billion, down from May’s $6.9 billion gain.

The June increase brought consumer credit to a fresh record of $3.86 trillion. The Fed’s monthly credit report does not include mortgages or other debt secured by real estate, including home-equity loans.

The U.S. economy rose at a solid 2.6 percent annual pace from April through June on a healthy increase in consumer spending. The job market also looks good. Employers last month added 209,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate fell to a 16-year low 4.3 percent.Washington Post

Press Release: US Federal Reserve

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4½ percent during the second quarter. Both revolving and nonrevolving credit increased at similar annual rates. In June, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 4 percent.

US Federal Reserve, “Consumer Credit – G.19. Jun 2017“, 7 Aug 2017 More

flag_japan Japan update

Currency: USD/JPY

JPY movements
^ JPY movements against the USD over the past month (mouseover for inverse) Chart: xe.com

Stockmarket: Nikkei 225

N225 movements
^ Nikkei N225 movements over the past week Chart: Google Finance

flag_china China update

Currency: USD/CNY

CNY movements
^ CNY movements against the USD over the past month (mouseover for inverse) Chart: xe.com

Stockmarket: CSI300

CSI300 movements
^ Shanghai CSI300 movements over the past week Chart: Google Finance