Wed 9 Aug 2017


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In Portfolioticker today

Today at the stock market

bull/bearU.S. stocks ended little changed, while Treasuries pared gains as American government officials tried to ease concerns the country was headed for armed conflict with North Korea. Crude fell on a jump in gasoline stockpiles.

The S&P 500 Index almost erased losses in the final hour of trading and the CBOE Volatility Index pared an advance as Secretary of State Rex Tillerson signaled military confrontation was not imminent. He was one of several officials in the Trump administration who sought to fine-tune the message on how it will address North Korean threats.

Trump’s statement Tuesday that could unleash “fire and fury” against Kim Jong Un’s regime sparked demand for haven assets from the JPY to Treasuries. Those trades began reversing late Wednesday as investors grew more confident the situation wouldn’t escalate. Still, emerging-market shares fell the most since Jun 2017 and gold jumped to an 8-week high Wednesday. The 10-year Treasury yield fell as much as 5 basis points before trimming that to a single point.

  • The S&P 500 Index lost 0.04% to close at 2,474.02, all but erasing losses that had reached 0.5%.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index lost 0.17%% to close at 22,048.70.
  • The NASDAQ Composite Index lost 0.28% to close at 6,352.33.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index rose 3%, well off its session high of a 15% spike.
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.7%.
  • The MSCI All-Country World Index fell 0.4%.
  • The MSCI Emerging Market Index fell 1%, the biggest dip in almost 8 weeks.

“Trump in his reactions is something new for all of us,” Geraldine Sundstrom, portfolio manager at Pimco Europe, said in an interview on Bloomberg TV. “Given the nature of the threats, given the players are new, it makes the situation a little bit unusual,” said Sundstrom, who recommended safe haven trades and minimizing risks through duration. Bloomberg

Market indices

Index Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 16 YTD
S&P 500 SPX (INX) 2,474.02 -0.04% 2,238.83 +10.50%
DJIA INDU 22,048.70 -0.17% 19,762.60 +11.56%
NASDAQ IXIC 6,352.33 -0.29% 5,383.12 +18.00%

The portfolio today

USD and AUD denominated indices over the past 52 weeks (Chart: Bunting)
^ USD and AUD denominated indices over the past 52 weeks Chart: Bunting

Index values

:-) Our USD-denominated index closed at a record 2.841, up 0.26% on yesterday’s record 2.834.

Index Currency Today Change 31 Dec 16 YTD
USD-denominated Index USD 2.840 +0.26% 2.105 +34.96%
Valuation Rate USD/AUD 0.7936 -0.36% 0.72663 +9.21%
AUD-denominated Index AUD 3.582 +0.61% 2.895 +23.73%

Portfolio stock prices

:-) Apple closed on a record high of $161.06, up 0.61% on yesterday’s record of $160.08.

Stock Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 16 YTD
Alphabet A GOOGL $940.08 -0.44% $792.45 +18.62%
Alphabet C GOOG $922.90 -0.42% $771.82 +19.57%
Apple AAPL $161.06 +0.61% $115.82 +39.06%
Amazon AMZN $982.01 -0.79% $749.87 +30.95%
Ebay EBAY $36.08 -0.77% $29.69 +21.52%
Facebook FB $171.18 -0.03% $115.05 +48.78%
PayPal PYPL $59.67 +0.32% $39.47 +51.17%
Twitter TWTR $16.14 -0.06% $16.30 -0.99%
Visa V $100.97 -0.29% $78.02 +29.41%
VMware VMW $92.93 -0.50% $78.73 +18.03%

FX: USD/AUD

USD

DXY movements
^ Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (DXY) movements today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: Bloomberg

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (DXY) was little changed.
The EUR rose less than 0.1% to USD 1.1757, the weakest in almost 2 weeks.
Britain’s GBP rose 0.1% to USD 1.3001, the first advance in a week.
South Africa’s ZAR fell 0.6% to 13.455 per USD, the weakest in more than 4 weeks.
Bloomberg

AUD

AUD movements
^ AUD movements against the USD today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: xe.com

Oil and Gas Futures

Futures prices

Prices are as at 15:47 ET

  • NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI): $49.56/barrel +0.79% Chart
  • ICE (London) Brent North Sea Crude: $52.70/barrel +1.07% Chart
  • NYMEX Natural gas futures: $2.88/MMBTU +1.88% Chart

flag_australia AU: Housing Finance, June 2017

Press Release Extract [ser_abs1]

DWELLINGS FINANCED

Value of Dwellings Financed

The total value of dwelling commitments excluding alterations and additions (trend) was flat in June 2017 compared with May 2017, while the seasonally adjusted series rose 0.8% in June 2017.

The total value of owner occupied housing commitments (trend) rose (up $110m, 0.5%) in June 2017. Rises were recorded in commitments for the purchase of new dwellings (up $21m, 1.9%), commitments for the construction of dwellings (up $36m, 1.9%) and commitments for the purchase of established dwellings (up $53m, 0.3%). The seasonally adjusted series for the total value of owner occupied housing commitments rose 0.3% in June 2017.

The total value of investment housing commitments (trend) fell (down $106m, 0.9%) in June 2017 compared with May 2017. A fall was recorded in commitments for the purchase of dwellings by individuals for rent or resale (down $150m, 1.5%), while rises were recorded in commitments for the purchase of dwellings by others for rent or resale (up $7m, 0.6%) and commitments for the construction of dwellings for rent or resale (up $37m, 3.3%). The seasonally adjusted series for the total value of investment housing commitments rose 1.6% in June 2017.

au_housing_chart1_20170809

Number of Owner Occupied Dwellings Financed

The number of owner occupied housing commitments (trend) fell 0.2% in June 2017, following a fall of 0.3% in May 2017. Falls were recorded in commitments for the refinancing of established dwellings (down 218, 1.3%) and commitments for the purchase of established dwellings excluding refinancing (down 26, 0.1%), while rises were recorded in commitments for the purchase of new dwellings (up 38, 1.3%) and commitments for the construction of dwellings (up 113, 1.9%). The seasonally adjusted series for the total number of owner occupied housing commitments rose 0.5% in June 2017.

Number of Owner Occupied Dwellings Financed – State

Between May 2017 and June 2017, the number of owner occupied housing commitments (trend) fell in New South Wales (down 43, 0.3%), South Australia (down 42, 1.2%), Western Australia (down 17, 0.3%), Tasmania (down 2, 0.2%) and the Northern Territory (down 1, 0.4%), while rises were recorded in Queensland (up 8, 0.1%), Victoria (up 10, 0.1%) and the Australian Capital Territory (up 11, 1.0%).

The seasonally adjusted estimates rose in the Australian Capital Territory (up 22, 2.0%), the Northern Territory (up 23, 8.1%), Victoria (up 142, 0.9%) and Queensland (up 291, 2.8%), while falls were recorded in New South Wales (down 153, 0.9%), South Australia (down 24, 0.7%) and Tasmania (down 17, 1.6%) with Western Australia being flat.

First Home Buyer Commitments

In original terms, the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments rose to 15.0% in June 2017 from 14.0% in May 2017. Between May 2017 and June 2017, the average loan size for first home buyers fell $600 to $317,400. The average loan size for all owner occupied housing commitments fell $3,800 to $376,200 for the same period.

Number of Owner Occupied Dwellings Financed Excluding Refinancing

The number of owner occupied housing commitments excluding refinancing (trend) rose 0.3% in June 2017, following a rise of 0.4% in May 2017. The seasonally adjusted series rose 1.9% in June 2017, following a rise of 0.2% in May 2017.

PURPOSE OF FINANCE (OWNER OCCUPATION)

Construction of dwellings

The number of finance commitments for the construction of dwellings for owner occupation (trend) rose 1.9% in June 2017, following a rise of 1.9% in May 2017. The seasonally adjusted series rose 3.6% in June 2017, following a rise of 2.7% in May 2017.

Purchase of new dwellings

The number of finance commitments for the purchase of new dwellings for owner occupation (trend) rose 1.3% in June 2017, following a rise of 1.4% in May 2017. The seasonally adjusted series rose 3.5% in June 2017, following a rise of 4.4% in May 2017.

Purchase of established dwellings (including refinancing across lending institutions)

The number of finance commitments for the purchase of established dwellings for owner occupation (trend) fell 0.5% in June 2017, following a fall of 0.6% in May 2017. The seasonally adjusted series fell 0.1% in June 2017, after a rise of 0.7% in May 2017.

Refinancing

The number of refinancing commitments for owner occupied housing (trend) fell 1.3% in June 2017, following a fall of 1.7% in May 2017. The seasonally adjusted series fell 2.4% in June 2017, after a rise of 3.1% in May 2017.

TYPE OF LENDER (OWNER OCCUPATION)

Banks

The number of commitments for owner occupied dwellings financed by banks (trend) fell 0.2% in June 2017, following a fall of 0.3% in May 2017. The seasonally adjusted series rose 0.4% in June 2017, following a rise of 1.1% in May 2017.

Non-banks

The number of commitments for owner occupied dwellings financed by non-banks (trend) was flat in June 2017, after a rise of 0.2% in May 2017. The seasonally adjusted series rose 2.4% in June 2017, following a rise of 0.8% in May 2017. The number of commitments for owner occupied dwellings financed by permanent building societies (trend) rose 3.1% in June 2017, following a rise of 3.8% in May 2017.

HOUSING LOAN OUTSTANDINGS

At the end of June 2017, the value of outstanding housing loans financed by Authorised Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) was $1,607b, up $9b (0.6%) from the May 2017 closing balance. Owner occupied housing loan outstandings financed by ADIs rose $7b (0.7%) to $1,047b and investment housing loan outstandings financed by ADIs rose $2.3b (0.4%) to $560b.

Bank housing loan outstandings rose $10b (0.6%) during June 2017 to reach a closing balance of $1,570b. Owner occupied housing loan outstandings of banks rose $7b (0.7%) to $1,017b and investment housing loan outstandings of banks rose $2.4b (0.4%) to $552b.

Australian Bureau of Statistics, “5609.0 Housing Finance, Australia, June 2017“, 9 Aug 2017 More

flag_usa US: Productivity and Costs. Q2/2017

Press Release Extract

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 0.9 percent during the second quarter of 2017, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 3.4 percent and hours worked increased 2.5 percent. From the second quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2017, productivity increased 1.2 percent, reflecting a 2.7-percent increase in output and a 1.5-percent increase in hours worked.

us_prod_20170809

Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of hours worked by all persons, including employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers.

Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 0.6 percent in the second quarter of 2017, reflecting a 1.6-percent increase in hourly compensation and a 0.9-percent increase in productivity. Unit labor costs decreased 0.2 percent over the last four quarters.

us_costs_20170809

Manufacturing sector labor productivity increased 2.5 percent in the second quarter of 2017, as output increased 1.6 percent and hours worked decreased 0.9 percent. Output per hour increased 3.8 percent in the durable goods manufacturing sector and edged down 0.1 percent in the nondurable goods sector. Over the last four quarters, manufacturing sector productivity increased 1.0 percent, as output increased 1.5 percent and hours worked increased 0.4 percent. Unit labor costs in manufacturing decreased 0.3 percent in the second quarter of 2017 and rose 0.1 percent from the same quarter a year ago.

Nonfarm business sector productivity increased 0.1 percent in the first quarter of 2017—similar to the previously reported estimate (0.0 percent)—the combined effect of a small upward revision to output and a small downward revision to hours. A large upward revision to first-quarter unit labor costs—from an increase of 2.2 percent to an increase of 5.4 percent—reflected a 3.3- percentage point upward revision to hourly compensation and a 0.1-pecentage point upward revision to productivity. Real hourly compensation increased 2.3 percent after revision, rather than the previously published decrease of 0.9 percent.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Productivity and Costs, Second Quarter 2017, Preliminary“, 9 Aug 2017 (08:30)
More

flag_japan Japan update

Currency: USD/JPY

JPY movements
^ JPY movements against the USD over the past month (mouseover for inverse) Chart: xe.com

Stockmarket: Nikkei 225

N225 movements
^ Nikkei N225 movements over the past week Chart: Google Finance

flag_china China update

Producer Price Index (PPI). Jul 2017

Preview: TradingEconomics

The producer price index increased by 5.5 percent from a year earlier, the same in the preceding two months. The figure was in line with estimates and marking the eleventh straight month of increase in producer prices. Inflation was steady for: means of production (7.3 percent, namely extraction: 15.8 percent, raw materials: 9.3 percent and processing: 5.8 percent); consumer goods (0.5 percent, namely food production: 0.4 percent, clothing: 1.2 percent and daily use goods: 0.6 percent). Meanwhile, prices of consumer durable goods were unchanged, after gaining 0.1 percent in June. On a monthly basis, producer prices rose 0.2 percent and marking the first increase in four months. Producer Prices Change in China averaged 1.11 percent from 1995 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 13.47 percent in July of 1995 and a record low of -8.20 percent in July of 2009.TradingEconomics

Press Release Extract [ser_112]

In July 2017, Producer Price Index (PPI) for manufactured goods increased 5.5 percent year-on-year, and increased 0.2 percent month-on-month. The purchasing price index for manufactured goods increased 7.0 percent year-on-year, and remained at the same level month-on-month (the amount of change was 0, similarly hereinafter). On average from January to July, the PPI increased 6.4 percent year-on-year, the purchasing price index for manufactured goods went up by 8.5 percent year-on-year.

1. Year-on-Year Changes of Prices of Different Categories

The year-on-year change of producer prices for means of production increased 7.3 percent, meaning 5.4 percentage points increase in the overall price level. Of which, producer prices for mining and quarrying industry increased 15.8 percent; that of raw materials industry increased 9.3 percent; that of manufacturing and processing industry increased 5.8 percent. Producer prices for consumer goods increased 0.5 percent year-on-year, meaning 0.1 percentage point increase in the overall price level. Of which, producer prices for foodstuff increased 0.4 percent, that of clothing increased 1.2 percent, that of commodities went up by 0.6 percent, and that of durable consumer goods remained at the same level.

cn_ppi_20170809

The year-on-year purchaser price indices for ferrous metal materials increased 14.1 percent, non-ferrous metal materials and wires went up by 13.2 percent, fuel and power increased 10.7 percent, building materials and non-metallic went up by 9.3 percent.

cn_pupi_20170809

2. Month-on-Month Changes of Prices of Different Categories

The producer prices for means of production increased 0.2 percent month-on-month, meaning 0.2 percentage points increase in the overall price level. Of the total, producer prices for mining and quarrying industry decreased 1.1 percent, that of raw materials industry decreased 0.2 percent, that of manufacturing and processing industry increased 0.5 percent. Producer prices for consumer goods remained at the same level month-on-month. Of which, producer prices for foodstuff increased 0.1 percent, that of clothing and durable consumer goods both remained at the same level, that of commodities decreased 0.1 percent.

The month-on-month purchaser price indices for non-ferrous metal materials and wires went up by 1.0 percent, ferrous metal materials increased 0.7 percent, fuel and power went down by 1.2 percent.

National Bureau of Statistics of China, “Producer Price Index (PPI). Jul 2017“, 9 Aug 2017 More

Consumer Price Index (CPI). Jul 2017

Preview: TradingEconomics

China’s consumer prices rose 1.4 percent year-on-year in July of 2017, following a 1.5 percent rise in June while market expected a 1.5 percent gain. It was the lowest inflation rate since April, as cost of non-food slowed and cost of food continued to fall. On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged up 0.1 percent, after declining 0.2 percent in a month earlier and slightly below estimates a 0.2 percent rise. Inflation Rate in China averaged 5.34 percent from 1986 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 28.40 percent in February of 1989 and a record low of -2.20 percent in April of 1999.TradingEconomics

Press Release Extract [ser_111]

In July 2017, the consumer price index (CPI) went up by 1.4 percent year-on-year. The prices grew by 1.5 percent in cities and 1.0 percent in rural areas. The food prices went down by 1.1 percent, and the non-food prices increased 2.0 percent. The prices of consumer goods went up by 0.5 percent and the prices of services grew by 2.9 percent. On average from January to July, the overall consumer prices were up by 1.4 percent from the same period of the previous year.

In July, the consumer prices increased 0.1 percent month-on-month. Of which, prices increased 0.1 percent in cities and remained at the same level in rural areas. The food prices went down by 0.1 percent, and the non-food prices went up by 0.2 percent. The prices of consumer goods decreased 0.2 percent, and the prices of services increased 0.6 percent.

I. Year-on-Year Changes of Prices of Different Categories

In July, prices of food, tobacco and liquor, went down by 0.1 percent year-on-year, affecting nearly 0.04 percentage points decrease in the CPI. Of which, the prices of meat, went down by 9.8 percent, affecting nearly 0.49 percentage points decrease in the CPI (price of pork was down by 15.5 percent, affecting nearly 0.46 percentage points decrease in the CPI); eggs, went down by 4.9 percent, affecting nearly 0.03 percentage points decrease in the CPI; fresh vegetables, up by 9.1 percent, affecting nearly 0.20 percentage points increase in the CPI; aquatic products, up by 4.3 percent, affecting nearly 0.08 percentage points increase in the CPI; fresh fruits, up by 1.7 percent, affecting nearly 0.03 percentage points increase in the CPI; grain, up by 1.6 percent, affecting nearly 0.03 percentage points increase in the CPI.

In July, among the prices of the other seven categories, six increased and one decreased year-on-year. Of which, the prices of health care increased 5.5 percent, residence, education, culture and recreation increased 2.5 percent, clothing, other articles and services, household articles and services, increased 1.4, 1.3 and 1.1 percent respectively, transportation and communication, decreased 0.2 percent.

II. Month-on-Month Changes of Prices of Different Categories

In July, prices of food, tobacco and liquor remained at the same level month-on-month. Of which, prices for fresh vegetables, went up by 7.0 percent, affecting nearly 0.15 percentage points increase in the CPI; eggs, up by 3.2 percent, affecting nearly 0.02 percentage points increase in the CPI; fresh fruits, went down by 9.2 percent, affecting nearly 0.16 percentage points decrease in the CPI; meat, down by 0.5 percent, affecting nearly 0.02 percentage points decrease in the CPI (price of pork was down by 0.7 percent, affecting nearly 0.02 percentage points decrease in the CPI).

Among the prices of the other seven categories, four increased and three decreased. Of which, the prices of education, culture and recreation, health care increased 1.0 and 0.5 percent respectively, residence, household articles and services, increased 0.1 percent, clothing, transportation and communication, other articles and services, decreased 0.4, 0.3 and 0.1 percent respectively.

National Bureau of Statistics of China, “Consumer Prices for July 2017“, 9 Aug 2017 More

Currency: USD/CNY

CNY movements
^ CNY movements against the USD over the past month (mouseover for inverse) Chart: xe.com

Stockmarket: CSI300

CSI300 movements
^ Shanghai CSI300 movements over the past week Chart: Google Finance