In Portfolioticker today
- How did we go today?
- Today at the stock market
- The portfolio today
- Energy: Oil and Gas Futures
- EU: Job Vacancy Rate. Q2/2017
- EU: International Trade in Goods. Jul 2017
- EU: Annual Growth in Labour Costs. Q2/2017
- US: Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services (Advance Estimate). Aug 2017
- US: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales. Jul 2017
- US: Consumer Confidence Index (Preliminary). Sep 2017
- US: Industrial Production. Aug 2017
- Japan Update
- China Update
Today at the stock market
“U.S. stocks capped the best week since Jan 2017, with the S&P 500 Index climbing above 2,500 for the first time, as investors showed resilience in the face of a North Korean missile test. The dollar weakened after an unexpected decline in Aug 2017 retail sales raised concern over the economy’s strength.
Investors largely shrugged off the latest rise in tensions on the Korean peninsula and a terrorist attack in London, with haven assets from the yen to gold declining. The S&P 500 took the round-number milestone in the final minutes of trading to end the week with a 1.6% advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also closed at a record. The USD pared its biggest weekly gain since Feb 2017 as the Bank of England’s hawkish shift bolstered the pound. Oil ended near $50/barrel to cap its best week since Jul 2017. Yields on 10-year Treasuries topped 2.2%.
With economic themes back in the foreground, markets are showing signs of becoming conditioned to provocative actions from North Korea, which has launched more than a dozen missiles this year and tested a nuclear device. The Aug 2017 decline in sales and downward revisions to the prior months make it more likely that consumption, the biggest part of the economy, will be hard-pressed to match the 3.3% growth pace of the prior quarter.
“Retail sales were weak but some of that is built in because you caught a piece of the hurricanes,” said Andrew Brenner, the head of international fixed income at Natalliance Securities. “Central banks trump everything else right now. They’re going to become much more important in the next wave of where markets move.”
Volume was unusually high Friday because of a quarterly event known as quadruple witching, when futures and options contracts on indexes and individual stocks expire.” Bloomberg
The S&P500 closed on a record 2,500.23, up 0.18% on its 13 Aug 2017 record of 2,498.37.
The DJIA closed on a record 22,268.34, up 0.29% on yesterday’s record of 22,203.48.
^ Market indices today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: Google Finance
|Index||Ticker||Today||Change||31 Dec 16||YTD|
|S&P 500||SPX (INX)||2,500.23||+0.18%||2,238.83||+11.67%|
^ USD and AUD denominated indices over the past 52 weeks Chart: Bunting
|Index||Currency||Today||Change||31 Dec 16||YTD|
Portfolio stock prices
Ebay closed on a record $38.36, up 0.13% on yesterday’s record of $38.31.
|Stock||Ticker||Today||Change||31 Dec 16||YTD|
^ Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (DXY) movements today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: Bloomberg
“The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%.
The EUR rose 0.2% to USD 1.1941.
Britain’s GBP gained 1.3% to USD 1.3568, the strongest in almost 15 months.
Japan’s JPY dipped 0.6% to 110.92 per USD.” Bloomberg
^ AUD movements against the USD today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: xe.com
Oil and Gas Futures
“West Texas Intermediate rose 0.1% to $49.93/barrel. Prices rose almost 5% in the week, buoyed by higher demand forecasts” Bloomberg
Prices are as at 15:49 ET
- NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI): $49.95/barrel +0.12% Chart
- ICE (London) Brent North Sea Crude: $55.57/barrel +0.18% Chart
- NYMEX Natural gas futures: $3.03/MMBTU -1.17% Chart
EU: Job Vacancy Rate. Q2/2017
Press Release Extract [ser_eu_vacancies]
“The job vacancy rate in the euro area (EA19) was 1.9% in the second quarter of 2017, stable compared with the previous quarter and up from 1.7% in the second quarter of 2016, according to figures published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the EU28, the job vacancy rate was 2.0% in the second quarter of 2017, up from 1.9% recorded in the previous quarter and from 1.8% in the second quarter of 2016.
In the euro area, the job vacancy rate in the second quarter of 2017 was 1.6% in industry and construction, and 2.2% in services. In the EU28, the rate was 1.7% in industry and construction, and 2.3% in services.
Among the Member States for which comparable data are available (see country notes), the highest job vacancy rates in the second quarter of 2017 were recorded in the Czech Republic (3.6%), Belgium (3.3%), Germany (2.7%), the Netherlands, Austria and the United Kingdom (all 2.6%) as well as Sweden (2.5%). In contrast, the lowest rates were observed in Greece (0.7%), Bulgaria, Spain and Cyprus (all 0.8%) as well as Portugal (0.9%).
Compared with the same quarter of the previous year and among the Member States for which data are comparable over time, the job vacancy rate in the second quarter of 2017 rose in nineteen Member States, remained stable in four and fell in Cyprus (-0.2 percentage points), Bulgaria, Greece and Slovakia (all -0.1 percentage points). The largest increases were registered in the Czech Republic (+0.7 percentage points), the Netherlands and Austria (both +0.6 percentage points), Belgium and Slovenia (both +0.5 percentage points).“
Eurostat, “Second quarter of 2017: Euro area job vacancy rate at 1.9%, EU28 rate at 2.0%“, 15 Sep 2017 More
EU: International Trade in Goods. Jul 2017
Press Release Extract [ser_eu_trade]
The first estimate for euro area (EA19) exports of goods to the rest of the world in July 2017 was €177.7 billion, an increase of 6.1% compared with July 2016 (€167.6 bn). Imports from the rest of the world stood at €154.6 bn, a rise of 8.2% compared with July 2016 (€142.8 bn). As a result, the euro area recorded a €23.2 bn surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world in July 2017, compared with +€24.8 bn in July 2016. Intra-euro area trade rose to €145.6 bn in July 2017, up by 5.6% compared with July 2016.
In January to July 2017, euro area exports of goods to the rest of the world stood at €1 265.1 bn (an increase of 7.7% compared with January-July 2016) and imports at €1 135.0 bn (an increase of 11.2% compared with January- July 2016). As a result, the euro area recorded a surplus of €130.2 bn, compared with +€154.1 bn in January-July 2016. Intra-euro area trade rose to €1 074.0 bn in January-July 2017, up by 7.3% compared with January-July 2016.
The first estimate for extra-EU28 exports of goods in July 2017 was €155.8 billion, up by 9.7% compared with July 2016 (€142.1 bn). Imports from the rest of the world stood at €146.9 bn, up by 5.6% compared with July 2016 (€139.1 bn). As a result, the EU28 recorded a €8.8 bn surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world in July 2017, compared with +€3.0 bn in July 2016. Intra-EU28 trade rose to €260.3 bn in July 2017, +5.3% compared with July 2016.
In January to July 2017, extra-EU28 exports of goods stood at €1 087.3 bn (an increase of 9.6% compared with January-July 2016) and imports at €1 076.5 bn (an increase of 10.1% compared with January-July 2016). As a result, the EU28 recorded a surplus of €10.8 bn, compared with +€14.0 bn in January-July 2016. Intra-EU28 trade rose to €1 938.3 bn in January-July 2017, +6.9% compared with January-July 2016.”
Eurostat, “July 2017: Euro area international trade in goods surplus €23.2 bn, €8.8 bn surplus for EU28“, 15 Sep 2017 More
EU: Annual Growth in Labour Costs. Q2/2017
Press Release Extract [ser_eu_wages]
“Hourly labour costs rose by 1.8% in the euro area (EA19) and by 2.2% in the EU28 in the second quarter of 2017, compared with the same quarter of the previous year. In the first quarter of 2017, hourly labour costs increased by 1.4% and 1.6% respectively. These figures are published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.
The two main components of labour costs are wages & salaries and non-wage costs. In the euro area, wages & salaries per hour worked grew by 2.0% and the non-wage component by 0.8%, in the second quarter of 2017 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. In the first quarter of 2017, the annual changes were +1.3% and +1.6% respectively. In the EU28, hourly wages & salaries rose by 2.4% and the non-wage component by 1.6% in the second quarter of 2017. In the first quarter of 2017, annual changes were +1.5% and +1.9% respectively.
Breakdown by economic activity
In the second quarter of 2017 compared with the same quarter of the previous year, hourly labour costs in the euro area rose by 1.5% in industry, by 2.0% in construction, by 2.1% in services and by 1.4% in the (mainly) non- business economy. In the EU28, labour costs per hour grew by 2.2% in industry, by 1.6% in construction, by 2.7% in services and by 1.7% in the (mainly) non-business economy
In the second quarter of 2017, the highest annual increases in hourly labour costs for the whole economy were registered in Romania (+18.6%), Hungary (+13.0%), the Czech Republic (+11.1%), Bulgaria (+11.0%) and Lithuania (+10.4%). A decrease was recorded in Finland (-0.3%).“
Eurostat, “Second quarter of 2017: Annual growth in labour costs at 1.8% in euro area, At 2.2% in EU288“, 15 Sep 2017 More
US: Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services (Advance Estimate). Aug 2017
Press Release Extract [ser_us_retail_adv]
“Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2017, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $474.8 billion, a decrease of 0.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 3.2 percent (±0.7 percent) above August 2016. Total sales for the June 2017 through August 2017 period were up 3.2 percent (±0.7 percent) from the same period a year ago. The June 2017 to July 2017 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.3 percent (±0.1 percent).
Retail trade sales were down 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from July 2017, and up 3.3 percent (±0.7 percent) from last year. Nonstore Retailers were up 8.4 percent (±1.6 percent) from August 2016, while Building Materials and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers were up 7.5 percent (±1.9 percent) from last year.”
US Census Bureau, “Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, August 2017“, 15 Sep 2017 (08:30) More
US: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales. Jul 2017
Press Release Extract [ser_us_durables]
The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for July, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,358.8 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.1 percent) from June 2017 and was up 4.9 percent (±0.4 percent) from July 2016.
Manufacturers’ and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,873.9 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.1 percent) from June 2017 and were up 3.0 percent (±0.3 percent) from July 2016.
The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of July was 1.38. The July 2016 ratio was 1.40.”
US Census Bureau, “Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales, July 2017“, 15 Sep 2017 (10:00) More
US: UOM Consumer Confidence Index (Preliminary). Sep 2017
Press Release Extract [ser_11]
Index Sep 17 Aug 17 Sep 16 M-M% Y-Y% Index of Consumer Sentiment 95.3 96.8 91.28 -1.5% +4.5% Current Economic Conditions 113.9 110.9 104.2 +2.7% +9.3% Index of Consumer Expectations 83.4 87.7 82.7 -4.9% +0.8%
“Consumer confidence edged downward in early September due to concerns over the outlook for the national economy. Consumers’ assessments of current economic conditions improved, however, with the Current Conditions Index reaching the highest level since November of 2000. The two hurricanes had a greater impact on expected economic conditions. Across all interviews in early September, 9% spontaneously mentioned concerns that Harvey, Irma, or both, would have a negative impact on the overall economy. Among those who mentioned the hurricanes, the Sentiment Index was 80.2, while among those who did not spontaneously mention either hurricane, the Sentiment Index remained unchanged from last month at 96.8. Given the widespread devastation in Texas and Florida, it is not surprising to find these very negative initial reactions, nor would it be surprising if these negative assessments last longer than following most past hurricanes. While consumers anticipated slight increases in gas prices and a slightly higher overall inflation rate, those concerns were neutralized by the best assessments of their financial situation in more than a decade. Renewed gains in incomes as well as rising home and equity values have acted to counterbalance the negative impacts from the hurricanes. Given the current resilience of consumers, recent events are unlikely to derail confidence.”
University of Michigan, “UOM Consumer Confidence Index (Preliminary). Sep 2017“, 15 Sep 2017 (10:00) More
US: Industrial Production. Aug 2017
“Industrial output in the US shrank 0.9% month-over-month in August of 2017, following an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in July and missing market expectations of a 0.1% increase. It is the first drop in industrial output since Jan 2017 and the biggest since May 2009 as Hurricane Harvey, which hit the Gulf Coast of Texas in late Aug 2017, is estimated to have reduced the rate of change in total output by roughly ¾ percentage point. Industrial Production Mom in the United States averaged 0.27% from 1919 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 16.60% in May 1933 and a record low of -10.40% in Aug 1945.” TradingEconomics
^ JPY movements against the USD over the past month (mouseover for inverse) Chart: xe.com
Stockmarket: Nikkei 225
^ Nikkei N225 movements over the past week Chart: Google Finance
^ CNY movements against the USD over the past month (mouseover for inverse) Chart: xe.com
^ Shanghai CSI300 movements over the past week Chart: Google Finance