In Portfolioticker today
Today at the stock market
“U.S. stocks declined on Monday as each of the major Wall Street indexes retreated from a record, weighed down by a drop in technology and industrial shares. Last week, the Dow and S&P managed to close at a record high all 5 days, after a strong start to Q3/2017 earnings and on hopes President Donald Trump’s tax plans move forward after the Senate’s approval of a budget resolution on Friday. After holding near the unchanged mark for most of the session, losses accelerated late in the session on downturn in the technology index, off 0.40%.
Of the 97 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings so far, 73.2% have topped expectations, according to Thomson Reuters data, versus the 72% average for the past 4 quarters.
Industrials were off 0.8% as one of the biggest drags to the S&P of the 11 major sectors.
General Electric, down 6.3%, suffered its biggest one-day percentage decline in more than 6 years after a host of brokerages cut their price targets on the stock, citing higher chances of a dividend cut at the industrial conglomerate.
Aside from GE, the industrials group was also pulled lower by a 10.4% tumble in Arconic after the specialty metals maker missed profit estimates and announced a new chief executive.
The energy index stumbled 0.59%, driven by losses in Schlumberger, Baker Hughes and Halliburton, which reported results on Monday.
Hasbro plunged 8.6% after the toymaker’s forecast for the holiday season fell below estimates as Toys‘R‘Us bankruptcy began to hurt its operations. Shares of peer Mattel fell 3.2%.
“On the one hand, the market is very extended, overbought, on the other hand so far earnings have come through. The question becomes what happens if tax reform doesn’t happen in 2017, does the market sell off into the year-end?” said Andrew Slimmon, portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management in Chicago.
Investors are also waiting for news on the next Federal Reserve chief. Trump told reporters on Monday he is “very, very close” to making his decision on who should chair the Fed.” Bloomberg
^ Market indices today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: Google Finance
|Index||Ticker||Today||Change||31 Dec 16||YTD|
|S&P 500||SPX (INX)||2,564.98||-0.40%||2,238.83||+14.56%|
^ USD and AUD denominated indices over the past 52 weeks Chart: Bunting
|Index||Currency||Today||Change||31 Dec 16||YTD|
Portfolio stock prices
VMware closed on a record high of $119.11, up 0.65% on Friday’s record of $118.34.
|Stock||Ticker||Today||Change||31 Dec 16||YTD|
^ Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (DXY) movements today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: Bloomberg
“The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (DXY) climbed 0.1% to its highest in more than 14 weeks.
The EUR fell 0.3% to USD 1.1748, the weakest in 2 weeks.
Britain’s GBP rose 0.1% to USD 1.3198.” Bloomberg
^ AUD movements against the USD today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: xe.com
Oil and Gas Futures
Prices are as at 15:48 EDT
- NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI): $51.86/barrel +0.04% Chart
- ICE (London) Brent North Sea Crude: $57.33/barrel -0.73% Chart
- NYMEX Natural gas futures: $2.98/MMBTU +2.16% Chart
AU: 2016 Census Data Reports
Press Release Extract [ser_au_census]
“The Health Care and Social Assistance industry was the largest industry by employment in the 2016 Census of Population and Housing, reveals latest data. The industry, spanning sectors such as hospitals, GPs and aged and child care, grew by around 16%. The industry now accounts for 12.6% of Australia’s working population, increasing from 11.6% in 2011 and 10.5% in 2006.
Although the number of overall employees fell slightly, Retail Trade was our second largest industry in the Census, followed by Education and Training.
The Accommodation and Food Services industry also saw impressive growth of around 14% over the past 5 years.
Census Program Manager, Bindi Kindermann said the data released today painted a picture of the changing face of Australia’s dominant industries.
“The Health Care and Social Assistance industry, which took over as our most commonly reported industry of employment in 2011, goes from strength to strength. Conversely, the Manufacturing industry has shown a decline in numbers since 2011 with a decline of 24% in the 5 to 2016.”
The Health Care and Social Assistance industry was the largest in each of our six states with Tasmania and South Australia – the two states with the highest median ages – recording the largest proportions of the working population employed in the industry at 14.2% and 14.8% respectively.
Following a boom in employment between the 2006 and 2011 Censuses, the Mining industry has still seen a little growth, with the 2016 Census revealing a 0.6% increase in counts.
The change in size of employment in different industries also had some relationship to changes in the numbers of men and women in the labour force, Ms Kindermann said.
“Some of the traditionally male-dominated industries such as manufacturing and mining have shown little growth or some reductions in the workforce, while some of the fastest-growing fields such as health care, social assistance and education have large numbers of female workers,” Ms Kindermann said.
“Alongside this, we are seeing the proportion of men in employment decrease over time while for women it is increasing.”
Census data also offers some fascinating insight into the ages of workers in certain industries, particularly Australia’s aging Agricultural sector.
The Census found that 37% of workers in the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry are aged 55 or over, the most of any industry, followed by Transport, Postal and Warehousing (25%) and Education and Training (23%).
At the other end of the age scale, 55% of workers in the Accommodation and Food Services industry are under 30, the most of any industry, followed by Retail Trade (42%) and Arts and Recreation Services (37%).”
Australian Bureau of Statistics, “Media Release 129/2017: Healthcare and Social Assistance our largest industry“, 23 Oct 2017 More
EU: Euro Area and EU28 Government Deficit and Debt
Press Release Extract [ser_eu_deficit]
“In 2016, the government deficit and debt of both the euro area (EA19) and the EU28 decreased in relative terms compared with 2015. In the euro area the government deficit to GDP ratio fell from 2.1% in 2015 to 1.5% in 2016, and in the EU28 from 2.4% to 1.7%. In the euro area the government debt to GDP ratio declined from 89.9% at the end of 2015 to 88.9% at the end of 2016, and in the EU28 from 84.5% to 83.2%.
In this release, Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, is providing government deficit and debt data based on figures reported in the second 2017 notification by EU Member States for the years 2013-2016, for the application of the excessive deficit procedure (EDP). This notification is based on the ESA 2010 system of national accounts. This release also includes data on government expenditure and revenue.
In 2016, Luxembourg (+1.6%), Malta and Sweden (both +1.1%), Germany (+0.8%), the Czech Republic (+0.7%), Greece and Cyprus (both +0.5%), the Netherlands (+0.4%) and Lithuania (+0.3%) registered a government surplus, while Latvia and Bulgaria reported a government balance. The lowest government deficits as a percentage of GDP were recorded in Estonia (-0.3%), Denmark (-0.6%), Ireland (-0.7%) and Croatia (-0.9%). Three Member States had deficits equal to or higher than 3% of GDP: Spain (-4.5%), France (-3.4%) and Romania (-3.0%).
At the end of 2016, the lowest ratios of government debt to GDP were recorded in Estonia (9.4%), Luxembourg (20.8%), Bulgaria (29.0%), the Czech Republic (36.8%), Romania (37.6%) and Denmark (37.7%). Sixteen Member States had government debt ratios higher than 60% of GDP, with the highest registered in Greece (180.8%), Italy (132.0%), Portugal (130.1%), Cyprus (107.1%) and Belgium (105.7%).
In 2016, government expenditure in the euro area was equivalent to 47.6% of GDP and government revenue to 46.1%. The figures for the EU28 were 46.3% and 44.7% respectively. In both zones, the government expenditure ratio decreased between 2015 and 2016, while the government revenue ratio decreased in the euro area and increased in the EU28.“
Eurostat, “Media Release 129/2017: Healthcare and Social Assistance our largest industry“, 23 Oct 2017 More
Election: Abe Wins
“Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s gamble on an early election may have just won him a chance to lead Japan through 2021. Abe, 63, saw his ruling coalition retain its two-thirds majority in the 465-member lower house in an election on Sunday. That boosts his chances at winning another term next year as head of his Liberal Democratic Party, which could make him Japan’s longest serving leader.
Unofficial tallies showed the LDP winning 283 seats and its coalition partner Komeito taking 29 as of 11:39 a.m. Monday in Tokyo — roughly similar to the split after the 2014 election. Five parties and independents took the rest. Four seats had yet to be called.
The landslide win, helped along by a disparate and weak opposition, paves the way for more ultra-easy monetary policy that has boosted stocks to the highest level in two decades and helped Asia’s second-biggest economy expand for six straight quarters. Yet pressure is also growing for Abe to tackle Japan’s swollen debt, increase stagnant wages and overhaul the labor market to replenish a rapidly aging workforce.
The Constitutional Democratic Party, set up only about two weeks ago by former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano after its predecessor split up, had 54 seats. Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike’s upstart Party of Hope, which briefly jumped in opinion polls last month, won 49 seats.
The JPY fell 0.2% to 113.79 per USD as of 12:38 p.m. in Tokyo, the lowest level in more than 3 months. Japanese equities advanced.” Bloomberg
^ JPY movements against the USD over the past month (mouseover for inverse) Chart: xe.com
Stockmarket: Nikkei 225
^ Nikkei N225 movements over the past week Chart: Google Finance
^ CNY movements against the USD over the past month (mouseover for inverse) Chart: xe.com
^ Shanghai CSI300 movements over the past week Chart: Google Finance