Wed 25 Oct 2017


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  • Today at the stock market

    bull/bearU.S. stocks fell on Wednesday, with the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 indexes suffering their worst day in 7 weeks, on a batch of soft quarterly earnings and a rise in bond yields. Selling was broad, with all 11 major S&P sectors in negative territory.

    Also, for the first time since late Aug 2017, more NYSE stocks made 52-week lows than highs.

    • The S&P 500 index fell 11.98 points, or 0.47%, to 2,557.15.
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 112.3 points, or 0.48%, to end at 23,329.46.
    • The Nasdaq Composite index fell 34.54 points, or 0.52%, to 6,563.89.
    • Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.96-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.07-to-1 ratio favored decliners.
    • About 7.3 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, well above the 5.91 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.

    Downbeat earnings from AT&T sent shares in the United States’ second-largest wireless carrier down 3.9%, pulling down other telecom stocks Verizon and CenturyLink.

    Boeing, off 2.8%, surprised investors by revealing a $329-million charge for its troubled KC-46 aerial refueling tanker program in quarterly results.

    AMD shares tumbled 13.5% after the chipmaker flagged competitive pressures with a forecast that pointed to a drop in revenue in Q4/2017 from Q3/2017.

    Chipotle plunged 14.6% after the burrito chain posted disappointing sales and earnings, adding to a raft of bad news for the company this year.

    Equities pared losses as yields retreated, following a Fox Business interview with Trump in which he said he was still considering keeping current Fed Chair Janet Yellen in the position. The 10-year was last down 9/32 in price to yield 2.4371%.

    “It is possible the market may be taking some solace that Yellen is still in the mix. The market may be saying, maybe one of the more hawkish, (John) Taylor or (Kevin) Warsh, is off the table,” said Mike Beale, senior managing director at U.S. Bank Private Wealth Management in Portland, Oregon.

    Low interest rates have been a driving factor in the 8-year bull market, with investors pushed into equities as other lesser-yielding instruments are viewed as unattractive by comparison.

    Earnings season so far has been largely positive, with 72.1% of the 165 S&P 500 companies that have reported to date topping expectations, matching the average for the past four quarters. However, with U.S. indexes at record levels, investors have scrutinized earnings to see if they justify stretched valuations.

    Also weighing on sentiment: President Trump and the U.S. House of Representatives’ top tax law writer reopened the door on Wednesday to changes in the 401(k) retirement savings program, just days after Trump seemed to rule out such a step. The debate could present another hurdle to a tax reform deal.Reuters

    Market indices

    Market indices
    ^ Market indices today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: Google Finance

    Index Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 16 YTD
    S&P 500 SPX (INX) 2,557.15 -0.47% 2,238.83 +14.21%
    DJIA INDU 23,329.46 -0.48% 19,762.60 +18.04%
    NASDAQ IXIC 6,563.89 -0.53% 5,383.12 +21.93%

    Portfolio Indices

    USD and AUD denominated indices over the past 52 weeks (Chart: Bunting)
    ^ USD and AUD denominated indices over the past 52 weeks Chart: Bunting

    Index values

    Index Currency Today Change 31 Dec 16 YTD
    USD-denominated Index USD 2.821 -0.31% 2.105 +34.01%
    Valuation Rate USD/AUD 0.77484 -1.05% 0.72663 +6.63%
    AUD-denominated Index AUD 3.642 +0.73% 2.895 +25.80%

    Portfolio stock prices

    :-) PayPal closed on a record high of $71.01 beating its 20 Oct 2017 record of $70.97.
    :-) Visa closed on a record high of $109.49 beating its 13 Oct 2017 record of $108.66.

    Stock Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 16 YTD
    Alphabet A GOOGL $991.46 +0.30% $792.45 +25.11%
    Alphabet C GOOG $973.33 +0.29% $771.82 +26.10%
    Apple AAPL $156.41 -0.44% $115.82 +35.04%
    Amazon AMZN $972.91 -0.31% $749.87 +29.74%
    Ebay EBAY $36.68 -0.16% $29.69 +23.54%
    Facebook FB $170.60 -0.70% $115.05 +48.28%
    PayPal PYPL $71.02 +1.15% $39.47 +79.93%
    Twitter TWTR $17.14 -0.64% $16.30 +5.15%
    Visa V $109.49 +1.00% $78.02 +40.33%
    VMware VMW $118.90 -0.61% $78.73 +51.02%

    FX: USD/AUD

    USD

    DXY movements
    ^ Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (DXY) movements today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: Bloomberg

    The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (DXY) slipped on Wednesday, struggling to post further gains tied to speculation the next chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve will steer policy in a more hawkish direction. The DXY was down 0.1% at 93.696, holding below a 2½ week high of 94.017 set on Monday. A pullback in U.S. bond yields, with 2-year Treasury yields retreating from a near 9-year peak, also stoked some selling in the USD.

    “There’s nothing concrete so that encouraged some profit-taking,” Kathy Lien, managing director at BK Asset management in New York said of President Donald Trump’s nominee for Fed chief.

    Profit-taking on the USD occurred even in the wake of surprisingly strong data on durable goods orders and new home sales in Sep 2017, analysts said.

    Among other major currencies, Britain’s GBP climbed almost 1% to an 8-day high of USD 1.3271 after stronger-than-expected U.K. growth data cemented expectations the Bank of England will raise interest rates next week.

    Canada’s loonie tumbled to CAD 1.2816 to the USD, its weakest since 12 Jul 2017, after the Bank of Canada as expected left key overnight rates unchanged.

    The USD climbed to JPY 114.245, its highest since 11 Jul 2017, following Sunday’s victory for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whose ultra-loose monetary policy should keep pressure on the yen. It was down 0.2% at JPY 113.70 in late trading.

    The EUR gained 0.4% at USD 1.181 before Thursday’s European Central Bank policy meeting, prompted by expectations it would announce the start of trimming its monthly asset purchases to EUR 40 billion from EUR 60 billion in Jan 2018.

    Despite Wednesday’s pullback, the DXY has gained 0.6% in the past week on hopes for a tax-cut plan and in the aftermath of reports that Stanford University economist John Taylor impressed Trump in his interview for the Fed’s top post. Taylor favors a rule-based approach to setting interest rates and is seen as someone who may put the Fed on a path of faster rate hikes compared with Fed Chair Janet Yellen, whose term expires in Feb 2018.

    Trump’s other possible nominees to head the Fed include Yellen, Fed Governor Jerome Powell, his economic adviser Gary Cohn and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh.

    On Wednesday, a senior administration official said Trump was not likely to pick Cohn due to his key role on tax reform, while Trump told Fox Business Network that he thinks Yellen is “terrific” but suggested he would like make his “own mark” for a Fed chair. Trump is expected to announce his Fed chair candidate before his Asian trip in early November.Reuters

    AUD

    The AUD fell to an intra-day low of USD 0.76919 on Wednesday from USD 0.7775 in the previous trading session. Historically, the Australian Dollar reached an all time high of USD 1.10 in Jul 2011 and a record low of USD 0.48 in Apr 2001.TradingEconomics

    AUD movements
    ^ AUD movements against the USD today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: xe.com

    Oil and Gas Futures

    Futures prices

    Stocks of crude oil in the United States increased by 0.856 million barrels in the week ended 20 Oct 2017, following a 5.731 million decline in the previous period and compared with market expectations of a 2.578 million drop. It is the first increase in crude oil inventories in 5 weeks. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories went down by 5.465 million, following a rise of 0.908 million in the previous week and much worse than market expectations of a 0.017 million decrease.

    Crude Oil Stocks Change in the United States averaged 0.07 BBL/1Million from 1982 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 14.42 BBL/1Million in Oct 2016 and a record low of -15.22 BBL/1Million in Jan1999.TradingEconomics

    Prices are as at 15:47 EDT

    • NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI): $52.10/barrel -0.53% Chart
    • ICE (London) Brent North Sea Crude: $58.43/barrel +0.17% Chart
    • NYMEX Natural gas futures: $2.93/MMBTU -1.61% Chart

    Visa Q4/2017 and Full year 2017 Earnings

    Press Release Extract [ser_visa]

    Visa Inc today announced financial results for the Company’s fiscal fourth quarter and full year 2017, ended September 30, 2017.

    Fiscal Fourth Quarter:

    • GAAP net income of $2.1 billion or $0.90 per share
    • Net operating revenues of $4.9 billion, an increase of 14%, driven by continued growth in payments volume, cross- border volume and processed transactions
    • Payments volume growth, on a constant dollar basis and excluding Europe co-badge volume, was 10% over the prior year
    • Cross-border volume growth, on a constant dollar basis, was 10% over the prior year
    • Total Visa processed transactions increased 13% over the prior year
    • Returned approximately $2.1 billion of capital to shareholders in the form of share repurchases and dividends

    Fiscal Full Year:

    • GAAP 2017 net income of $6.7 billion or $2.80 per share and adjusted full-year net income of $8.3 billion or $3.48 per share
    • 2017 net operating revenues of $18.4 billion, an increase of 22%, driven by inclusion of Visa Europe and continued growth in payments volume, cross-border volume and processed transactions
    • Payments volume growth, on a constant dollar basis and excluding Europe co-badge volume, was 30% over the prior year, or 11% inclusive of Visa Europe in prior year’s results
    • Cross-border volume growth, on a constant dollar basis, was 80% or 11% inclusive of Visa Europe in prior year’s results
    • Total Visa processed transactions increased 34% over the prior year, or 13% inclusive of Visa Europe in prior year’s results
    • Returned approximately $8.5 billion of capital to shareholders in the form of share repurchases and dividends

    “Visa ended our fiscal year as we began, with strong growth across payments volume, cross-border volume and processed transactions, which was bolstered by the addition of Visa Europe,” said Alfred F. Kelly, Jr., Chief Executive Officer of Visa Inc. “We’re very pleased with our progress in Europe and will continue to make strategic investments that will further strengthen our franchise there and globally. As we look ahead to fiscal 2018, we are positioned for sustained growth and remain confident in our ability to continue delivering strong shareholder value.”

    Dividend

    On October 17, 2017, the board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.195 per share of class A common stock (determined in the case of class B and C common stock and series B and C convertible participating preferred stock on an as-converted basis) payable on December 5, 2017 to all holders of record of the Company’s common and preferred stock as of November 17, 2017.

    Financial Outlook for Fiscal Full-Year 2018:

    Visa Inc. provides its financial outlook for the following metrics for fiscal full-year 2018:

    • Annual net revenue growth of high single digits on a nominal dollar basis, with approximately 0.5 to 1 ppt of positive foreign currency impact;
    • Client incentives as a percentage of gross revenues: 21.5% to 22.5% range;
    • Annual operating expense growth: Mid-single digits adjusted for special items in fiscal 2017;
    • Annual operating margin: High 60s;
    • Effective tax rate: About 29%; and
    • Annual diluted class A common stock earnings per share growth: Mid-40′s on a GAAP nominal dollar basis and high end of mid-teens on an adjusted, non-GAAP nominal dollar basis, both including approximately 1 to 1.5 ppts of positive foreign currency impact.
    • Note: The financial outlook for fiscal full-year 2018 includes Visa Europe integration expenses of approximately $60 million for the full-year. Annual operating expense growth is derived from adjusted full-year 2017 operating expenses of $6.0 billion. Annual adjusted diluted class A common stock earnings per share growth is derived from adjusted full- year 2017 earnings per share results of $3.48.

    Visa, “Visa Inc. Reports Strong Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2017 Results“, 25 Oct 2017 More

    flag_australia AU: CPI. September Quarter 2017

    Press Release Extract [ser_au_cpi]

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6 per cent in the September quarter 2017, the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures reveal. This follows a rise of 0.2 per cent in the June quarter 2017.

    The most significant price rises this quarter are electricity (+8.9%), tobacco (+4.1%), international holiday travel and accommodation (+4.1%) and new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+0.8%). These rises are partially offset by falls in vegetables (-10.9%), automotive fuel (-2.3%) and telecommunication equipment and services (-1.5%).

    The CPI rose 1.8 per cent through the year to September quarter 2017 having increased to 1.9 per cent in the June quarter 2017.

    Chief Economist for the ABS, Bruce Hockman, said “Utilities prices rose strongly in the September quarter 2017. The most significant rises relate to electricity and gas prices, with increases in wholesale prices being passed on to consumers. Increases in wholesale prices have been observed across the National Electricity Market (NEM), with the most significant rises this quarter in electricity being observed in Adelaide; Sydney; Canberra and Perth.”

    MAIN CONTRIBUTORS TO CHANGE

    HOUSING GROUP (+1.9%)

    The main contributors to the rise in the housing group this quarter are electricity (+8.9%), new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+0.8%), gas and other household fuels (+5.2%) and property rates and charges (+2.6%). The rise in electricity is due to higher wholesale prices. The rise in new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers is driven by increases in input prices being flowed through following a pick up in demand. The rise in gas and other household fuels is driven by increases in wholesale prices.

    Over the last twelve months, the housing group rose 3.3%. The main contributors to the rise are new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+3.1%) and electricity (+11.5%).

    In seasonally adjusted terms, the housing group rose 0.9% this quarter. The main contributors to the rise is electricity (+4.6%) and new dwellings purchase by owner-occupiers (+0.8%).

    Utilities Sub-Group: September quarter 2017

    Electricity, gas and water price increases in the utilities sub-group was 6.8% this quarter, driven by rises in electricity (+8.9%), gas and other household fuels (+5.2%); and water and sewerage (+3.2%). Rises in electricity and gas are due to rises in wholesale prices.

    The most significant quarterly rises in utilities were observed in Adelaide (+14.2%), driven by electricity; followed by Canberra (+12.3%), driven by gas; Perth (+7.5%), driven by electricity; and Brisbane (+3.5%), driven by electricity. Rises this quarter are mainly driven by increases in wholesale prices. Increases in wholesale prices have been observed across the National Electricity Market (NEM).

    For the current CPI series, the utilities sub-group has a weight of 3.61% to the All groups CPI, of which electricity made up 1.99%, gas and other household fuels 0.72%, and water and sewerage 0.90%.

    Utilities Sub-Group: June quarter 2014 to September quarter 2017

    The period from June quarter 2014 to September quarter 2017 commences with the removal of carbon pricing. For this period the utilities sub-group rose 9.3%. This was driven by gas and other household fuels (+12.7%), followed by electricity (+10.8%) and water and sewerage (+2.9%).

    Looking specificially between the period June quarter 2014 and June quarter 2016, utilities prices have been falling, on average 0.9% annually compared to the All groups CPI which has been rising 1.5% (Jun Qr/2014-Jun Qr/2016). The fall was driven by electricity (-2.6%) and is due to the removal of carbon pricing as well as the Australian Energy Regulator’s decision to lower network charges for some States and Territories.

    From September quarter 2016 to September quarter 2017, utilities prices have, on average, increased 5.1% annually compared to the All groups CPI which has been rising 1.8% (Sep Qr/2016 – Sep Qr/2017). Rises in utilities during this period are driven by electricity (+7.9%) and are due to increases in wholesale prices.

    ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO GROUP (+2.2%)

    The main contributor to the rise in the alcohol and tobacco group this quarter is tobacco (+4.1%). The rise in tobacco is due to the effects of the 12.5% federal excise tax increase effective from 1 September 2017.

    Over the last twelve months, the alcohol and tobacco group increased 7.0%. The main contributor to the rise is tobacco (+14.1%).

    In seasonally adjusted terms, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 2.3% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is tobacco (+4.5%).

    RECREATION AND CULTURE GROUP (+1.3%)

    The main contributor to the rise in the recreation and culture group this quarter is international holiday travel and accommodation (+4.1%). The rise in international holiday travel and accommodation is typical of the summer peak seasons in Europe and America.

    Over the last twelve months, the recreation and culture group rose 0.6%. The main contributors to the rise are domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+2.0%) and sports participation (+3.8%). The rise is partially offset by audio, visual and computing equipment (-7.0%) and international holiday travel and accommodation (-1.6%).

    In the CPI, airfares and accommodation are collected in advance (at the time of payment), but are only used in the CPI in the quarter in which the trip is undertaken. International airfares are collected two months in advance (July for travel in September) and domestic airfares are collected one month in advance (August for travel in September).

    In seasonally adjusted terms, the recreation and culture group rose 0.5% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is audio, visual and computing media and services (+3.9%).

    FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES GROUP (-0.9%)

    The main contributor to the fall in the food and non-alcoholic beverages group this quarter is vegetables (-10.9%). Favourable growing conditions has provided an increase in the supply of vegetables having a downward impact on prices.

    Over the last twelve months, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group fell 0.7%. The main contributors to the fall are fruit (-10.3%) and vegetables (-6.5%).

    In seasonally adjusted terms, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group fell 1.1%. this quarter. The main contributors to the fall are vegetables (-8.2%) and fruit (-7.1%).

    COMMUNICATION GROUP (-1.4%)

    The main contributor to the fall in the communication group this quarter is telecommunication equipment and services (-1.5%).

    Over the last twelve months, the communication group fell 2.9%. The main contributor to the fall is telecommunication equipment and services (-3.2%).

    The communication group is not seasonally adjusted.

    CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR GROUP (-0.9%)

    The main contributors to the fall in the clothing and footwear group this quarter are garments for women (-1.2%), garments for men (-2.1%) and accessories (-0.7%) as a result of sustained periods of specialling in the retail industry.

    Over the last twelve months, the clothing and footwear group fell 3.2%. The main contributor to the fall is garments for women (-4.6%).

    In seasonally adjusted terms, the clothing and footwear group fell 0.9% this quarter. The main contributors to the fall are garments for men (-1.9%) and accessories (-1.5%).

    INSURANCE AND FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP (+0.6%)

    The main contributor to the rise in the insurance and financial services group this quarter is insurance (+1.9%).

    Over the last twelve months, the insurance and financial services group rose 1.8%. The main contributor to the rise is insurance (+3.7%).

    In seasonally adjusted terms, the insurance and financial services group rose 0.5% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is insurance (+1.6%).

    FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND SERVICES GROUP (+0.4%)

    The main contributors to the rise in the furnishings, household equipment and services group this quarter is child care (+2.2%).

    Over the last twelve months, the furnishings, household equipment and services group fell 0.8%. The main contributor to the fall is furniture (-3.8%).

    In seasonally adjusted terms, the furnishings, household equipment and services group fell 0.1% this quarter.

    HEALTH GROUP (-0.2%)

    The main contributor to the fall in the health group this quarter is pharmaceutical products (-0.8%) and medical and hospital services (-0.1%). The fall is due to the cyclical effect of a greater proportion of patients who qualify for subsidies under the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) and Medicare Benefits Scheme (MBS) which reduces the out-of-pocket expense.

    Over the last twelve months, the health group rose 3.9%. The main contributor to the rise is medical and hospital services (+5.4%).

    In seasonally adjusted terms, the health group rose 1.0% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is medical and hospital services (+1.3%).

    TRANSPORT GROUP (0.0%)

    Transport group recorded no movement in September quarter 2017. Automotive fuel fell 2.3% for the quarter with all fuel types recording falls this quarter. Automotive fuel fell in July (-4.4%) and rose in August (+2.5%) and September (+2.3%). The fall is partially offset by rises in other services in respect of motor vehicles (+2.7%).

    The following graph shows the pattern of the average daily prices for unleaded petrol for the eight capital cities over the last fifteen months.

    Over the last twelve months, the transport group rose 2.7%. The main contributor to the rise is automotive fuel (+7.5%).

    In seasonally adjusted terms, the transport group fell -0.3% this quarter. The main contributor to the fall is automotive fuel (-2.3%).

    EDUCATION GROUP (0.0%)

    The education group recorded no change this quarter.

    Over the last twelve months, the education group rose 3.1%. The main contributor to the rise is secondary education (+4.1%).

    In seasonally adjusted terms, the education group rose 1.1% this quarter. The main contributors to the rise are secondary education (+1.2%) and tertiary education (+1.1%).

    INTERNATIONAL TRADE EXPOSURE – TRADABLES AND NON-TRADABLES

    The tradables component of the All groups CPI fell 0.3% this quarter. Price changes for the goods and services in this component are largely determined on the world market. The tradables component represents approximately 35% of the weight of the CPI. The tradable goods component recorded a fall of 0.6% this quarter. The most significant negative contributors are vegetables( -10.9%) and automotive fuel (-2.3%). The tradable services component recorded a rise of 3.9% this quarter. The most significant positive contributor is international holiday travel and accommodation (+4.1%).

    The non-tradables component of the All groups CPI rose 1.0% this quarter. Price changes for the goods and services in this component are largely determined by domestic price pressures. The non-tradables component represents approximately 65% of the weight of the CPI. The most significant contributors to the 2.0% rise in the non-tradable goods component are electricity (+8.9%) and tobacco (+4.1%). The rise in the non-tradable services component of 0.5% is driven by other services in respect of motor vehicles (+2.7%) and property rates and charges (+2.6%).

    Over the last twelve months, the tradables component fell 0.9% and the non-tradables component rose 3.2%. This compares to a rise of 0.4% and 2.7% respectively over the twelve months to the June quarter 2017.

    In seasonally adjusted terms, the tradables component of the All groups CPI fell 0.8% this quarter, while the non-tradables component rose 0.9%.

    SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANALYTICAL SERIES

    The All groups CPI seasonally adjusted rose 0.4% this quarter, compared to the original All groups CPI which recorded a rise of 0.6%.

    The trimmed mean rose 0.4% this quarter, compared to a rise of 0.5% in the June quarter 2017. Over the last twelve months, the trimmed mean rose 1.8%, compared to a rise of 1.8% over the twelve months to the June quarter 2017.

    The weighted median rose 0.3% this quarter, compared to a revised rise of 0.6% in the June quarter 2017. Over the last twelve months, the weighted median rose 1.9%, compared to a revised rise of 1.9% over the twelve months to the June quarter 2017.

    Australian Bureau of Statistics, “145/2017: Inflation rose 0.6 per cent in the September quarter 2017“, 9 Oct 2017 More

    flag_usa US: Advance Report on Durable Goods. Sep 2017

    Press Release Extract [ser_us_durgd]

    New Orders

    New orders for manufactured durable goods in September increased $5.1 billion or 2.2 percent to $238.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up three of the last four months, followed a 2.0 percent August increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.7 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 2.0 percent. Transportation equipment, also up three of the last four months, led the increase, $4.0 billion or 5.1 percent to $81.2 billion.

    us_durgd_20171025

    Shipments

    Shipments of manufactured durable goods in September, up four of the last five months, increased $2.4 billion or 1.0 percent to $240.5 billion. This followed a 0.7 percent August increase. Transportation equipment, up two of the last three months, led the increase, $1.1 billion or 1.4 percent to $79.7 billion.

    Unfilled Orders

    Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in September, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $2.8 billion or 0.2 percent to $1,135.1 billion. This followed a virtually unchanged August decrease. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $1.5 billion or 0.2 percent to $772.1 billion.

    Inventories
    Inventories of manufactured durable goods in September, up fourteen of the last fifteen months, increased $2.4 billion or 0.6 percent to $403.6 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent August increase. Transportation equipment, up three consecutive months, led the increase, $0.8 billion or 0.7 percent to $130.8 billion.

    Capital Goods

    Nondefense new orders for capital goods in September increased $4.3 billion or 6.1 percent to $74.9 billion. Shipments increased $1.7 billion or 2.4 percent to $73.5 billion. Unfilled orders increased $1.3 billion or 0.2 percent to $704.8 billion. Inventories increased $1.4 billion or 0.8 percent to $179.9 billion. Defense new orders for capital goods in September increased $0.5 billion or 4.1 percent to $11.5 billion. Shipments increased $0.2 billion or 1.7 percent to $10.6 billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.9 billion or 0.7 percent to $143.9 billion. Inventories decreased $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $23.4 billion.

    Revised August Data

    Revised seasonally adjusted August figures for all manufacturing industries were: new orders, $471.8 billion (revised from $471.7 billion); shipments, $476.3 billion (revised from $475.9 billion); unfilled orders, $1,132.3 billion (revised from $1,132.6 billion) and total inventories, $655.9 billion (revised from $655.6 billion).

    U.S. Census Bureau, “Monthly Advance Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders, Sep 2017“, 25 Oct 2017 (08:30) More

    flag_usa US: FHFA House Price Index. Aug 2017

    Press Release Extract [ser_us_newressales]

    U.S. house prices rose in August, up 0.7 percent from the previous month, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (HPI). The previously reported 0.2 percent increase in July was revised upward to 0.4 percent.

    The FHFA monthly HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to, or guaranteed by, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. From August 2016 to August 2017, house prices were up 6.6 percent.

    For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly price changes from July 2017 to August 2017 ranged from -0.1 percent in the New England division to +1.4 percent in the Pacific division. The 12-month changes were all positive, ranging from +5.0 percent in the Middle Atlantic division to +9.3 percent in the Pacific division.

    Federal Housing Finance Agency, “FHFA House Price Index Up 0.7 Percent in August“, 25 Oct 2017 More

    flag_usa US: MBA Mortgage Applications. WE 20 Oct 2017

    Press Release Extract [ser_us_newressales]

    Mortgage applications decreased 4.6% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 20, 2017.

    The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent compared with the previous week and was 10 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

    The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 49.5 percent of total applications from 48.6 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 6.4 percent of total applications.

    The FHA share of total applications decreased to 9.8 percent from 10.4 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications decreased to 10.1 percent from 10.5 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications decreased to 0.7 percent from 0.8 percent the week prior.

    The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($424,100 or less) increased to 4.18 percent from 4.14 percent, with points decreasing to 0.42 from 0.44 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

    The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $424,100) decreased to 4.11 percent from 4.13 percent, with points decreasing to 0.24 from 0.32 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

    The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA increased to 4.04 percent from 4.00 percent, with points increasing to 0.41 from 0.37 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

    The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 3.48 percent from 3.45 percent, with points decreasing to 0.40 from 0.43 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

    The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs decreased to 3.29 percent from 3.31 percent, with points increasing to 0.54 from 0.40 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

    Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA), “Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey. Week Ended 20 Oct 2017“, 25 Oct 2017 More

    flag_usa US: Monthly New Residential Sales. Sep 2017

    Press Release Extract [ser_us_newressales]

    New Home Sales

    Sales of new single-family houses in September 2017 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 667,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 18.9 percent (±19.0 percent) above the revised August rate of 561,000 and is 17.0 percent (±22.4 percent) above the September 2016 estimate of 570,000.

    us_newressales_20171025

    Sales Price

    The median sales price of new houses sold in September 2017 was $319,700. The average sales price was $385,200.

    For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply

    The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September was 279,000. This represents a supply of 5.0 months at the current sales rate.

    U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, “Monthly New Residential Sales. Sep 2017“, 25 Oct 2017 (10:00) More

    flag_japan Japan update

    Currency: USD/JPY

    JPY movements
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    Stockmarket: Nikkei 225

    N225 movements
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    flag_china China update

    Currency: USD/CNY

    CNY movements
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    Stockmarket: CSI300

    CSI300 movements
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