Thu 2 Nov 2017


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  • Today at the stock market Opinion
  • The portfolio today Opinion
  • News
  • flag_japan Japan Update
  • flag_china China Update
  • Today at the stock market

    bull/bearWall Street’s Dow industrials climbed to a record high on Thursday while losses in Facebook kept the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq in check as investors assessed the long-awaited tax cut plan unveiled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s fellow Republicans.

    The bill called for slashing the corporate tax rate to 20% from 35% but also ending certain tax breaks for companies and individuals.

    While many market watchers have pointed to a corporate tax cut as further fuel for a record-setting run for equities, investors said the bill was just a starting point with significant negotiations likely ahead. “The message from the market is there are still a lot of unknowns out there,” said William Delwiche, investment strategist at Baird in Milwaukee. “It’s kind of hard to draw too many conclusions at this point from what exactly the bill will end up being.”

    • The S&P 500 index gained 0.49 points, or 0.02%, to 2,579.85
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average index rose 81.25 points, or 0.35%, to 23,516.26
    • The Nasdaq Composite index dropped 1.59 points, or 0.02%, to 6,714.94
    • Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.06-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.29-to-1 ratio favored advancers
    • About 7.4 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, well above the 6.2 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.

    Gains in shares of industrial stalwarts Boeing and 3M and bank Goldman Sachs helped boost the Dow.

    Facebook shares fell 2.0% as investors shrugged off strong quarterly results and worried about the social media company’s spending. The stock was the biggest drag on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

    Tesla Inc shares dropped 6.8% after the carmaker pushed back its production target for its Model 3 sedan and reported its biggest quarterly loss ever. Story

    Blue Apron shares tumbled 18.6% after the meal-kit delivery company reported a bigger quarterly loss than expected.

    In after-hours trade, shares of Dow component Apple gained as the iPhone maker’s revenue forecast for the holiday shopping quarter was largely above market expectations.

    In the regular session, U.S. housing sector stocks tumbled amid concerns over the tax plan’s cap on deductions for mortgages.

    The PHLX Housing index fell 1.1%, with Toll Brothers down 6.1% and MDC Holding down 12.0%. Shares of home improvement retailers also fell. Lowe’s dropped 4.1% and Home Depot fell 1.6%, weighing on the Dow.

    Trump officially nominated Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell to head the U.S. central bank, a pick that had been widely anticipated. Powell has supported current Chair Janet Yellen’s general direction in setting monetary policy and has been viewed as relatively dovish on interest rates. Story

    “I think he was a dovish choice, which probably gave a greater comfort level to investors on Wall Street, although I think his selection had already been baked into the market,” said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services in Hammond, Indiana.

    Third-quarter earnings season was also in focus, with investors citing corporate profit growth as supporting the market’s rally in 2017. With more than three-fourths having reported, S&P 500 companies are expected to have increased profits by 7.7% in Q3/2017, up from an expectation of 5.9% at the start of Oct 2017, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.Bloomberg

    Market indices

    Market indices
    ^ Market indices today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: Google Finance

    Index Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 16 YTD
    S&P 500 SPX (INX) 2,579.85 +0.01% 2,238.83 +15.23%
    DJIA INDU 23,516.26 +0.34% 19,762.60 +18.99%
    NASDAQ IXIC 6,714.94 -0.03% 5,383.12 +24.74%

    Portfolio Indices

    USD and AUD denominated indices over the past 52 weeks (Chart: Bunting)
    ^ USD and AUD denominated indices over the past 52 weeks Chart: Bunting

    Index values

    Index Currency Today Change 31 Dec 16 YTD
    USD-denominated Index USD 3.022 +0.23% 2.105 +43.58%
    Valuation Rate USD/AUD 0.77686 +0.61% 0.72663 +6.91%
    AUD-denominated Index AUD 3.892 -0.37% 2.895 +34.43%

    Portfolio stock prices

    :-) Alphabet closed on a record high of $$2,068.55, up 45 cents on yesterday’s record of $2,068.10.
    :-) Class A shares (GOOGL) closed on a record high of $1,042.97, up 0.04% on yesterday’s record of $1,042.60.
    :-) Class C shares (GOOG) closed on a record high of $1,025.58, up 0.01% on yesterday’s record of $1,025.50.

    Stock Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 16 YTD
    Alphabet A GOOGL $1,042.97 +0.03% $792.45 +31.61%
    Alphabet C GOOG $1,025.58 +0.00% $771.82 +32.87%
    Apple AAPL $168.11 +0.73% $115.82 +45.14%
    Amazon AMZN $1,094.22 -0.86% $749.87 +45.92%
    Ebay EBAY $37.34 -0.54% $29.69 +25.76%
    Facebook FB $178.92 -2.05% $115.05 +55.51%
    PayPal PYPL $72.25 -0.18% $39.47 +83.05%
    Twitter TWTR $19.71 -4.37% $16.30 +20.92%
    Visa V $110.98 -0.09% $78.02 +42.24%
    VMware VMW $118.90 -0.19% $78.73 +51.02%

    FX: USD/AUD

    USD

    DXY movements
    ^ Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (DXY) movements today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: Bloomberg

    The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (DXY) fell 0.3% to 1,181.30.
    The EUR climbed 0.3% to USD 1.1651, the strongest in more than a week.
    Britain’s GBP decreased 1% to USD 1.311, the weakest in almost 4 weeks on the biggest tumble in almost 21 weeks.
    Japan’s JPY was unchanged at 114.18 per USD, the strongest in about 6 months.
    Bloomberg

    AUD

    AUD movements
    ^ AUD movements against the USD today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: xe.com

    Oil and Gas Futures

    Futures prices

    Oil prices edged up on Thursday, steadying near two-year highs as the outlook remained upbeat as OPEC-led supply cuts have tightened the market and drained inventories.

    • Brent crude settled up 13 cents, or 0.2%, at $60.62/barrel. The benchmark hit $61.70 on Wednesday, its highest intraday level since July 2015. The contract is up by more than a third from its 2017-lows in June.
    • U.S. crude ended 24 cents, or 0.4%, higher at $54.54/barrel, almost 30% above its 2017-lows in June.

    Confidence has been fueled by an effort this year lead by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia to hold back about 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in oil production to tighten markets.

    Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said supply and demand balances were tightening and oil inventories falling, while compliance with the OPEC-led pact to curb supplies had been “excellent”.

    “Compliance as a whole for OPEC [ended] up being rather strong,” said Mark Watkins, regional investment manager at U.S. Bank. “Now that we’ve flipped the calendar to November we have the OPEC meeting at the end of the month. There’s expectation that there will be positive comments about extending the cuts past March.”

    The pact to withhold supplies runs to March 2018, but there is growing consensus to extend the deal to cover all of next year.

    Iraq’s oil minister said that OPEC’s second-largest producer supports keeping curbs on global oil supply to bolster prices, adding $60 per barrel would be an acceptable target price for his country.

    The energy ministers of Russia and Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil producers, were expected to travel to Tashkent, Uzbekistan, on Thursday night, two sources told Reuters. Both said the ministers were expected to give a briefing.

    Oil was also supported by falling U.S. commercial crude inventories despite rising output.

    U.S. crude oil inventories fell 2.4 million barrels last week despite a 46,000 bpd increase in production to 9.55 million bpd.

    Goldman Sachs said it expected year-on-year U.S. oil production growth of 0.8 million to 0.9 million bpd at year-end 2017. That would put end-2017 output at 9.6-9.7 million bpd, close to its highest for at least three decades.

    Traders said this was due to U.S. crude trading at a wide discount to Brent, making exports attractive.

    U.S. independent oil producer Pioneer Natural Resources said it expected to export 2.3 million barrels of oil in Q4/2017.Reuters

    Prices are as at 15:49 EDT

    • NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI): $54.76/barrel +0.85% Chart
    • ICE (London) Brent North Sea Crude: $60.80/barrel +0.51% Chart
    • NYMEX Natural gas futures: $2.94/MMBTU +1.73% Chart

    Apple earnings report for the Sep 2017 Quarter

    Earnings Report Press Release

    Apple today announced financial results for its fiscal 2017 fourth quarter ended September 30, 2017. The Company posted quarterly revenue of $52.6 billion, an increase of 12 percent from the year-ago quarter, and quarterly earnings per diluted share of $2.07, up 24 percent. International sales accounted for 62 percent of the quarter’s revenue.

    “We’re happy to report a very strong finish to a great fiscal 2017, with record fourth quarter revenue, year-over-year growth for all our product categories, and our best quarter ever for Services,” said Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO. “With fantastic new products including iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus, Apple Watch Series 3, and Apple TV 4K joining our product lineup, we’re looking forward to a great holiday season, and with the launch of iPhone X getting underway right now, we couldn’t be more excited as we begin to deliver our vision for the future with this stunning device.”

    “Apple’s year-over-year revenue growth rate accelerated for the fourth consecutive quarter and drove EPS growth of 24 percent in the September quarter,” said Luca Maestri, Apple’s CFO. “We also generated strong operating cash flow of $15.7 billion and returned $11 billion to investors through our capital return program.”

    Apple is providing the following guidance for its fiscal 2018 first quarter:

    • revenue between $84 billion and $87 billion
    • gross margin between 38 percent and 38.5 percent
    • operating expenses between $7.65 billion and $7.75 billion
    • other income/(expense) of $600 million
    • tax rate of 25.5 percent

    Apple’s board of directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.63 per share of the Company’s common stock. The dividend is payable on 16 Nov 2017 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on 13 Nov 2017.

    Apple, “Revenue Up 12% and EPS Up 24% to New September Quarter Records, Services Revenue Reaches All-Time High“, 2 Nov 2017 More

    Market Reaction

    aapl_20171102

    Market Comment (Reuters)

    Apple Inc forecast revenue for the holiday shopping-quarter largely above market expectations, helping allay investor concerns about production delays and supply constraints for the iPhone X, which it will start shipping on Friday.

    Apple opened pre-orders for the iPhone X on Oct. 27 and has said demand has been “off the charts,” although some analysts expressed concern about supply chain issues that might make it hard for Apple to make enough phones to satisfy demand.

    Apple Chief Financial Officer Luca Maestri told Reuters on Thursday the company was “quite happy” with how manufacturing of the iPhone X was progressing, noting that “production is growing every week, and that’s very, very important during a ramp period.

    Analysts have been eager to see whether Apple will be able to balance supply and demand for the iPhone X during the crucial holiday quarter, with most saying it will likely take Apple until next year or early spring to do so.

    “Where the demand curve and supply curve are going to intersect, we do not know. It does not have a predecessor product,” Maestri told Reuters.

    Apple forecast fiscal first-quarter revenue of $84 billion to $87 billion. Analysts on average were expecting $84.18 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

    Apple said it sold 46.7 million iPhones in the fourth quarter ended Sept. 30, above analysts’ estimates of 46.4 million, according to financial data and analytics firm FactSet.

    The company’s net income rose to $10.71 billion, or $2.07 per share, in the quarter, from $9.01 billion, or $1.67 per share, a year earlier. That beat the average estimate of $1.87 per share.

    The $28.85 billion revenue from iPhone sales accounted for nearly 55 percent of total revenue, which rose 12.2 percent to $52.58 billion.

    Analysts on average were expecting total revenue of $50.7 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

    Apple also said it returned to revenue growth in China, bringing in $9.8 billion versus $8 billion a year ago. Maestri also told Reuters the company had doubled its revenue in India during the fiscal fourth quarter, though he did not give any details.”Reuters

    flag_australia AU: Dwelling Approvals. Sep 2017

    Press Release Extract [ser_au_housing]

    The number of dwellings approved rose 1.8 per cent in September 2017, in trend terms, and has risen for eight months.

    Dwelling approvals increased in September in the Australian Capital Territory (7.9 per cent), Northern Territory (6.5 per cent), Tasmania (4.5 per cent), New South Wales (3.4 per cent), Western Australia (2.0 per cent), South Australia (1.5 per cent) and Victoria (0.7 per cent), but decreased in Queensland (0.5 per cent) in trend terms.

    In trend terms, approvals for private sector houses rose 0.7 per cent in September. Private sector house approvals rose in Queensland (1.8 per cent), South Australia (1.2 per cent), Victoria (0.6 per cent) and New South Wales (0.5 per cent), but fell in Western Australia (0.9 per cent).

    In seasonally adjusted terms, dwelling approvals increased by 1.5 per cent in September, driven by a rise in private dwellings excluding houses (2.6 per cent), while private house approvals rose 0.6 per cent.

    The value of total building approved rose 1.3 per cent in September, in trend terms, and has risen for nine months. The value of residential building rose 1.5 per cent while non-residential building rose 1.0 per cent.

    “The value of non-residential building approvals have risen for the past eight months, in trend terms, reaching a record high in September 2017.” Bill Becker, the Assistant Director of Construction Statistics at the ABS, said.

    “The strength in non-residential building has been driven by approvals in Victoria, where a number of office and education buildings have been approved in recent months.”

    Australian Bureau of Statistics, “8731.0 – Building Approvals, Australia, Sep 2017“, 2 Nov 2017 More

    flag_europe EU: Eurozone Manufacturing PMI. Oct 2017

    Press Release Extract [ser_eu_pmi]

    Key findings:

    • Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 58.5 in October (Flash: 58.6, September Final: 58.1)
    • Strong new order inflows test capacity and lead to survey-record jobs growth
    • All nations covered record increases in output, new orders and employment

    eu_pmi_20171102

    The eurozone manufacturing sector started the final quarter on a strong footing. Growth of both output and new orders remained elevated, while the pace of job creation accelerated to a survey-record high.

    The final IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® rose to an 80-month high of 58.5 in October, up from 58.1 in September and slightly below the earlier flash estimate of 58.6. The headline PMI has signalled expansion in each month since July 2013.

    The upturn was again led by a strong-performing core of Germany, the Netherlands and Austria. PMI readings were unchanged in Germany and Austria, while the Netherlands PMI rose to its highest level since February 2011. The expansions in Italy (80- month record) and Spain (29-month high) both accelerated, while the France PMI held steady at September’s 77-month high.

    Growth was also recorded in Ireland and Greece, meaning all of the nations covered registered expansions for the fifth straight month. However, Ireland and Greece both saw their respective rates of increase slow since the prior survey month.

    Looking at the components of the headline PMI, the rate of growth in euro area manufacturing production eased from September’s high, whereas the pace of increase in new work received remained robust and gathered pace to its best in 80 months.

    Job creation was also a solid contributor, with employment rising at a new survey-record rate. The trends in stocks of purchases and supplier delivery times also had stronger positive contributions than one month ago.

    Staffing levels have now risen for 38 successive months. October saw companies expand capacity in response to rising new order inflows and a further solid increase in backlogs of work. Employment increased at sharper rates in Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Ireland, Austria and Greece. Only France failed to register stronger jobs growth.

    Outstanding business rose at the joint-fastest pace in the series history, as capacity was tested by improved inflows of new work from both domestic and export clients. The level of new export business* rose at a quicker pace, reflecting increases across all of the nations covered by the survey.

    Capacity pressures also impacted on supply chains during October, as reflected by a further substantial lengthening in vendor lead times. Delivery times increased to the greatest extent in six-and-a-half years, with especially severe lengthening signalled in Germany, France, Austria and the Netherlands.

    Robust demand for raw materials and associated shortages of certain inputs both contributed to the latest increase in vendor lead times. The development of sellers’ markets for a number purchased items also led to an increase in their cost. Average input prices rose at the fastest pace in six months, with stronger inflation signalled in almost all of the nations covered (the exception being Ireland).

    Part of the increase in purchasing costs was passed on to clients in the form of higher selling prices. Output charges rose for the thirteenth successive month, with the rate of inflation rising to its highest since June 2011. The steepest increase in selling prices was in Germany, despite it being one of only two nations covered (the other being Ireland) to see slower inflation than in September.

    The outlook for the euro area manufacturing sector also remained positive in October. Companies reported that (on average) they expect production volumes to be higher in 12 months’ time. However, the overall degree of positive sentiment dipped slightly from September’s three-month high.

    Commenting on the final Manufacturing PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

    ‘Eurozone factories started the fourth quarter with increased vigour, with the sector’s growth spurt showing no sign of abating.

    ‘October’s PMI was the highest since February 2011 and the second-highest in over 17 years. The overall performance of the manufacturing sector so far this year has been the strongest since 2000.

    ‘It’s especially encouraging to see employment growing at a survey-record pace as firms seek to boost capacity in response to fuller order books. Export order growth remains encouragingly solid, suggesting little impact from the strengthening of the euro this year, and domestic demand continues to improve across the region.

    ‘However, with inflows of new work rising at an increased pace, factories and their suppliers are struggling to meet demand. Outstanding orders rose to a degree never before exceeded in the series’ 15-year history and supply chains are being stretched to the greatest extent since 2011, suggesting that pricing power is shifting towards a sellers’ market. Factory input costs and selling prices consequently rose at faster rates.

    ‘With output, demand and price pressures all rising, the survey data support the ECB’s recent shift in policy towards lower asset purchases in 2018.’

    IHS Markit, “IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® – final data: Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rises to 80-month high in Oct 2017“, 2 Nov 2017 More

    flag_usa US: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

    Press Release Extract [ser_4]

    insurance

    In the week ending October 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 229,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 233,000 to 234,000. The 4-week moving average was 232,500, a decrease of 7,250 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since April 7, 1973 when it was 232,250. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 239,500 to 239,750.

    Claims taking procedures continue to be severely disrupted in the Virgin Islands. The ability to take claims has improved in Puerto Rico and they are now processing backlogged claims.

    unemployment

    The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.3 percent for the week ending October 21, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate. The previous week’s rate was revised up by 0.1 from 1.3 to 1.4 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending October 21 was 1,884,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since December 29, 1973 when it was 1,805,000. The previous week’s level was revised up 6,000 from 1,893,000 to 1,899,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,895,750, a decrease of 9,250 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since January 12, 1974 when it was 1,881,000. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,500 from 1,903,500 to 1,905,000.

    Employment and Training Administration, “Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report“, 2 Nov 2017 (08:30) More

    flag_usa US: Productivity and Costs. Q3/2017

    Press Release Extract [ser_us_productivity]

    Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 3.0 percent during the third quarter of 2017, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 3.8 percent and hours worked increased 0.8 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.)

    From the third quarter of 2016 to the third quarter of 2017, productivity increased 1.5 percent, reflecting a 2.9-percent increase in output and a 1.4-percent increase in hours worked.

    Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of hours worked by all persons, including employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers.

    Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 0.5 percent in the third quarter of 2017, reflecting a 3.5-percent increase in hourly compensation and a 3.0-percent increase in productivity. Unit labor costs decreased 0.1 percent over the last four quarters.

    Manufacturing sector labor productivity fell 5.0 percent in the third quarter of 2017, as output decreased 2.1 percent and hours worked increased 3.1 percent. The decrease in manufacturing output per hour is the largest since the first quarter of 2009, when the measure fell 16.3 percent. Productivity decreased 5.7 percent in the durable goods manufacturing sector and 4.6 percent in the nondurable goods sector in the third quarter of 2017. Over the last four quarters, total manufacturing sector productivity increased 0.1 percent, as output increased 1.2 percent and hours worked increased 1.1 percent. Unit labor costs in manufacturing increased 6.2 percent in the third quarter of 2017 and rose 0.7 percent from the same quarter a year ago.

    Revised measures

    In the second quarter of 2017, nonfarm business sector productivity increased 1.5 percent, the same as reported on September 7; both output and hours were revised down 0.1 percentage point. Unit labor costs rose 0.3 percent during the second quarter. In the manufacturing sector, productivity was revised up 0.5 percentage point to an increase of 3.4 percent, due to an upward revision to output. Unit labor costs decreased 1.0 percent rather than declining 0.4 percent as previously reported.

    Second-quarter 2017 measures of productivity and costs were revised for the nonfinancial corporate sector. Productivity increased 4.4 percent rather than 4.6 percent as previously reported. Unit labor costs decreased 2.3 percent rather than the preliminary estimate of a 2.6-percent decline.

    Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Productivity and Costs – Third Quarter 2017, Preliminary“, 27 Oct 2017 (08:30) More

    flag_usa US: Gross Domestic Product by Industry. Q2/2017

    Press Release Extract [ser_us_gdp]

    Mining; professional, scientific, and technical services; and health care and social assistance were the leading contributors to the increase in U.S. economic growth in the second quarter of 2017. According to gross domestic product (GDP) by industry statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, 17 of 22 industry groups contributed to the overall 3.1 percent increase in real GDP in the second quarter.

    • For the mining industry, real value added—a measure of an industry’s contribution to GDP—increased 28.6 percent in the second quarter, after increasing 12.1 percent in the first quarter. This was the largest increase since the fourth quarter of 2014 and primarily reflected increases in both oil and gas extraction and support activities for mining.
    • Professional, scientific, and technical services increased 5.1 percent, after increasing 0.1 percent. This was the largest increase since the third quarter of 2014.
    • Health care and social assistance increased 4.7 percent, after increasing 3.7 percent. The second quarter growth primarily reflected an increase in ambulatory health care services.

    Other highlights

    • Real GDP growth increased to 3.1 percent in the second quarter, from 1.2 percent in the first quarter. Professional, scientific, and technical services was the leading contributor to the acceleration in real GDP in the second quarter. The larger increase was primarily attributed to miscellaneous professional, scientific, and technical services, which includes industries like specialized design services; architectural services; and translation and interpretation services.
    • Retail trade increased 5.6 percent, after decreasing 0.3 percent, and was the second leading contributor to the acceleration.
    • Information services increased 7.0 percent, after increasing 1.6 percent. The second quarter increase was primarily attributed to the broadcasting and telecommunications industry.

    Gross output by industry

    Economy-wide, real gross output—principally a measure of an industry’s sales or receipts, which includes sales to final users in the economy (GDP) and sales to other industries (intermediate inputs)— increased 2.5 percent in the second quarter. This reflected an increase of 3.8 percent in real gross output for the private services-producing sector and 1.3 percent for the government sector, while the private goods-producing sector decreased 0.2 percent. Overall, 18 of 22 industry groups contributed to the increase in real gross output.

    • Real gross output for mining increased 20.7 percent, after increasing 39.0 percent in the first quarter.
    • Retail trade increased 2.0 percent, after increasing 0.6 percent. This primarily reflected increases in
      other retail, which includes nonstore retailers.
    • Arts, entertainment, and recreation increased 12.5 percent, after decreasing 5.1 percent.

    Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Gross Domestic Product by Industry: Second Quarter 2017; Annual Update: 2014 through First Quarter 2017“, 27 Oct 2017 (08:30) More

    Global: Manufacturing PMI. 2 Nov 2017

    Press Release Extract [ser_global_pmi]

    The upturn in the global manufacturing sector gathered pace in October. This was signalled by the J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ – a composite index produced by J.P.Morgan and IHS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – rising to a six-and-a-half year high of 53.5, up from September’s 53.3.

    global_pmi_20171102

    Business conditions improved across the consumer, intermediate and investment goods sectors. The steepest rate of expansion was signalled in the latter, with growth picking up to the highest since March 2011. An acceleration was also registered at intermediate goods producers (78-month high), whereas a deceleration was seen in the consumer goods category (four-month low).

    Developed nations continued to record (on average) stronger rates of improvement than emerging markets at the start of the final quarter. The euro area PMI rose to an 80-month high, led by a solid performing core of Germany, the Netherlands and Austria.

    US manufacturing business conditions improved at the quickest pace since January, while accelerations were also signalled for the UK, Italy, Spain and Australia. Among the larger emerging markets, the China PMI held steady at 51.0, expansions slowed in India and Russia, while a mild growth uptick was signalled in Brazil. The Mexico PMI signalled contraction.

    October saw the rate of expansion in global manufacturing production remain close to September’s six-month high. Underpinning the latest rise was slightly stronger growth of new work intakes, including a solid increase in new export orders. The continued strength of demand also tested capacity. Backlogs of work rose to the greatest extent for over six-and-a-half years.

    Global manufacturing employment increased for the fourteenth successive month in October. Moreover, the rate of jobs growth accelerated to a 77-month high. Staffing levels rose in most of the nations covered, the exceptions being China, South Korea, Mexico, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar and Thailand.

    Price pressures continued to build, with the rate of input cost inflation rising to a nine-month high. Part of the increase in purchase prices reflected supply-chain constraints, as reflected in a further marked lengthening of average vendor lead times (the sharpest since May 2011). Output charges also increased at a solid clip.

    Commenting on the survey, David Hensley, Director of Global Economic Coordination at J.P.Morgan, said:
    ‘The global manufacturing PMI points to continued robust gains in production. The output PMI was little changed at an elevated level while the index of new orders moved up. Furthermore, the PMI indicates that output growth remains broad-based across the consumer, intermediate and investment goods sectors.’

    J.P.Morgan and IHS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, “J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI™: Global Manufacturing PMI at 78-month high in October“, 27 Oct 2017 (11:00) More

    flag_japan Japan update

    Currency: USD/JPY

    JPY movements
    ^ JPY movements against the USD over the past month (mouseover for inverse) Chart: xe.com

    Stockmarket: Nikkei 225

    N225 movements
    ^ Nikkei N225 movements over the past week Chart: Google Finance

    flag_china China update

    Currency: USD/CNY

    CNY movements
    ^ CNY movements against the USD over the past month (mouseover for inverse) Chart: xe.com

    Stockmarket: CSI300

    CSI300 movements
    ^ Shanghai CSI300 movements over the past week Chart: Google Finance