Fri 10 Nov 2017


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  • Today at the stock market Opinion
  • The portfolio today Opinion
  • News
  • flag_japan Japan Update
  • flag_china China Update
  • Today at the stock market

    bull/bearWall Street ended marginally lower on Friday, with losses in Intel and Apple as investors worried about the future of promised corporate tax cuts following duelling plans unveiled by Republican lawmakers.

    The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week lower for the first time in nine weeks:

    • The S&P 500 index fell 0.09% to 2,582.3. Today the S&P 500 on Friday stood at 18.1 times expected earnings, the highest since 2004, according to Thomson Reuters Datastream. For the week the S&P 500 was down 0.21%.
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.17% to end at 23,422.21. For the week the Dow was down 0.5%.
    • The Nasdaq Composite index edged up 0.01 percent to 6,750.94.
    • Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.31-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.08-to-1 ratio favored advancers.
    • About 6.4 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, below the 6.6 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.

    Intel fell 1.55% and Apple fell 0.33%, both accounting more than any other companies for the S&P 500’s decline.

    Seven of the 11 major S&P sectors fell, with the energy index’s 0.81% dip leading the decliners as oil prices fell.

    Nvidia rose 5.27% and hit a record high after the chipmaker’s revenue forecast for the current quarter topped estimates.

    A rise in media stocks also helped limit the slide.

    Disney rose 2.05%as the promise of a new “Star Wars” trilogy overshadowed its weak quarterly results.

    Time Warner Inc jumped 4.08% while News Corp climbed 5.15%.

    U.S. Senate Republicans released a tax plan on Thursday that differed from a version put forth by the House of Representatives on several key fronts, including putting off corporate tax cuts for a year.

    Expectations of lower taxes, one of President Donald Trump’s key campaign promises, have helped drive the S&P 500 up 20 percent since the 2016 presidential election.

    Failure to cut corporate taxes would increase concerns about Trump’s ability to pass legislation and could shake markets that have been banking on lower tax rates to boost company earnings.

    Arrow Funds Director of Research John Serrapere put the chances of successfully passing meaningful tax cuts at 50%, and he warned that failing could trigger a correction of as much as 15%. “There’s not a lot of confidence. I‘m not pessimistic, but there are a lot of pieces that need to be put together,” Serrapere said.Reuters

    Market indices

    Market indices
    ^ Market indices today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: Google Finance

    Index Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 16 YTD
    S&P 500 SPX (INX) 2,582.30 -0.09% 2,238.83 +15.34%
    DJIA INDU 23,422.21 -0.17% 19,762.60 +18.51%
    NASDAQ IXIC 6,750.94 +0.01% 5,383.12 +25.40%

    Portfolio Indices

    USD and AUD denominated indices over the past 52 weeks (Chart: Bunting)
    ^ USD and AUD denominated indices over the past 52 weeks Chart: Bunting

    Index values

    Index Currency Today Change 31 Dec 16 YTD
    USD-denominated Index USD 3.111 -0.51% 2.105 +47.80%
    Valuation Rate USD/AUD 0.7712 -0.24% 0.72663 +6.13%
    AUD-denominated Index AUD 4.036 -0.28% 2.895 +39.39%

    Portfolio stock prices

    :-) VMware closed on a record high of $122.15, beating its 27 Oct 2017 record of $120.97.

    Stock Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 16 YTD
    Alphabet A GOOGL $1043.90 -0.32% $792.45 +31.73%
    Alphabet C GOOG $1027.99 -0.31% $771.82 +33.19%
    Apple AAPL $174.67 -0.66% $115.82 +50.81%
    Amazon AMZN $1125.35 -0.30% $749.87 +50.07%
    Ebay EBAY $35.95 +0.72% $29.69 +21.08%
    Facebook FB $178.45 -0.48% $115.05 +55.10%
    PayPal PYPL $73.98 -0.17% $39.47 +87.43%
    Twitter TWTR $20.32 +2.11% $16.30 +24.66%
    Visa V $111.88 -0.24% $78.02 +43.39%
    VMware VMW $122.15 +0.97% $78.73 +55.15%

    FX: USD/AUD

    USD

    DXY movements
    ^ Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (DXY) movements today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: Bloomberg

    The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (DXY) rose 0.2%.
    The EUR was little changed at USD 1.1659.
    Britain’s GBP fell 0.7% to USD1.3106, after touching the weakest in more than a week on the largest fall in more than a week.
    Bloomberg

    AUD

    AUD movements
    ^ AUD movements against the USD today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: xe.com

    Oil and Gas Futures

    Futures prices

    Prices are as at 15:47 ET

    • NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI): $56.85/barrel -0.56% Chart
    • ICE (London) Brent North Sea Crude: $63.61/barrel -0.50% Chart
    • NYMEX Natural gas futures: $3.21/MMBTU +0.44% Chart

    TransPacific Partnership Meeting Abandoned

    A planned meeting of leaders of the 11 countries in the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) to decide on the fate of the trade pact did not take place on Friday, amid disagreements over how to take it forward without USA.

    The leaders were set to meet on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Vietnam to discuss how to push ahead with TPP.

    Their meeting was preceded by conflicting comments from their delegations on Thursday, when the trade ministers met to firm up a plan to present to the leaders. Japan had said an agreement in principle had been reached, but Canada disputed that.

    The spat highlighted the continuing challenge to reviving a pact whose survival was thrown into doubt when President Donald Trump ditched it, in one of his first acts in office, in favour of bilateral deal-making by the United States.

    The leaders’ meeting had been scheduled for 0145 local time (0645 GMT), but Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau failed to show up, according to people familiar with the matter.

    “The meeting did not happen, work remains to be done and that’s what’s happening now. We need to get this right and that will take the time it takes. We have to remember, the task officials had going into this week was to present options,” a Canadian official said.

    Even before the planned meeting, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had told the president of Peru – a TPP member – that he welcomed a broad agreement reached at the TPP ministerial meeting.

    Canada, whose economy is the second biggest among the TPP-11 after Japan, said on Wednesday it would not be rushed into a revived TPP deal. Like Mexico, its position is further complicated by renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the Trump administration.Reuters

    flag_usa US: UOM Consumer Confidence Index (Prelim). Nov 2017

    Press Release Extract [ser_11]
    Index Nov 17 Oct 17 Nov 16 M-M% Y-Y%
    Index of Consumer Sentiment 97.8 100.7 93.8 -2.9% +4.3%
    Current Economic Conditions 113.6 116.5 107.3 -2.5% +5.9%
    Index of Consumer Expectations 87.6 90.5 85.2 -3.2% +2.8%

    Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin

    Consumer sentiment declined slightly in early November due to widespread losses across current and expected economic conditions. The losses were quite small as the Sentiment Index remained at its second highest level since January. Overall, the Sentiment Index has remained trendless since the start of the year, varying by less that 4.0 Index-points around its 2017 average of 96.8. Consumers (and policy makers) have four key concerns: prospective trends in jobs, wages, inflation, and interest rates. An improving labor market was spontaneously mentioned by a record number of consumers in early November, and anticipated wage gains recorded their highest two-month level in a decade. These favorable trends were countered by a slight rise in year-ahead inflation expectations and a growing consensus that interest rates will increase during the year ahead. Needless to say, the preliminary November data is hardly sufficient to indicate that the persistent strength in the labor market has finally prompted higher inflation. Moreover, consumers anticipated that the size of the changes would be rather small, leaving economic conditions largely unchanged at favorable levels. While the expected Fed rate hikes seem to be the right preemptive action, the critical issue is whether income gains will be sufficient to outweigh rate hikes in home and vehicle purchase decisions. Overall, the data are consistent with a 2.7% rise in personal consumption spending in 2018.

    University of Michigan, “UOM Consumer Confidence Index (Prelim). Nov 2017“, 10 Nov 2017 (10:00) More

    flag_japan Japan update

    Currency: USD/JPY

    JPY movements
    ^ JPY movements against the USD over the past month (mouseover for inverse) Chart: xe.com

    Stockmarket: Nikkei 225

    N225 movements
    ^ Nikkei N225 movements over the past week Chart: Google Finance

    The Nikkei 225 lost 187 points or 0.8% to close at 22681 on Friday, extending losses for the third day after the US Senate Republicans unveiled a tax plan on Thursday that is different from the House of Representatives’ version, raising uncertainty about the US tax reform. It dampened investors’ sentiment and sent the JPY higher. Dai Nippon Printing (-8.8%), Bridgestone (-7.7%) and Unitika (-5.3%) were among the biggest losers. On the week, the Nikkei 225 gained 0.6%. Historically, the Japan NIKKEI 225 Stock Market Index reached an all time high of 38915.87 in Dec 1989 and a record low of 85.25 in Jul 1950.TradingEconomics

    flag_china China update

    Currency: USD/CNY

    CNY movements
    ^ CNY movements against the USD over the past month (mouseover for inverse) Chart: xe.com

    Stockmarket: CSI300

    CSI300 movements
    ^ Shanghai CSI300 movements over the past week Chart: Google Finance