Tue 14 Nov 2017


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  • Today at the stock market Opinion
  • The portfolio today Opinion
  • News
  • flag_japan Japan Update
  • flag_china China Update
  • Today at the stock market

    bull/bearU.S. stock indexes fell on Tuesday as General Electric shares plunged for a second straight day and a drop in crude oil prices hit energy stocks.

    GE fell 5.9% to $17.90 in the largest daily volume in 2 years as investors wondered if a massive overhaul of the company by new Chief Executive John Flannery will be enough to revive the industrial conglomerate. The stock touched $17.46, its lowest in nearly 6 years.

    Energy was the largest decliner among the 11 S&P 500 sectors as oil prices fell the most in a month. The International Energy Agency forecast rising U.S. crude output and had a gloomy outlook for global demand growth. Exxon fell 0.8% and ConocoPhillips fell 2.5%, while the S&P 500 energy sector fell 1.5%, the most in more than 4 months.

    • The S&P 500 index lost 5.97 points, or 0.23%, to 2,578.87. This was the third fall in the last four sessions, but the S&P500 index remains within 1% of a record closing high hit last week.
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 30.23 points, or 0.13%, to end at 23,409.47
    • The Nasdaq Composite index dropped 19.72 points, or 0.29%, to 6,737.87.
    • Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.47-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.23-to-1 ratio favored decliners.
    • The S&P 500 posted 45 new 52-week highs and 11 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 64 new highs and 87 new lows.
    • About 6.73 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, roughly in line with the daily average over the last 20 sessions.

    Stocks favored by investors seeking yield, the so-called bond proxies, were the best performers as the yield curve, or the gap between short- and long-term U.S. government bond yields, remained near its flattest in a decade. Utilities and consumer staples, sectors that pay relatively high dividends, were the best performers on the day. Utilities rose 1.2% for a 2.4% gain since Friday’s close, the largest 2-day percentage gain since late Feb 2017.

    “People are looking for yield across the globe so potentially there’s foreign flows going into bond proxies,” said Paul Zemsky, chief investment officer, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions at Voya Investment Management in New York. He said the outperformance of stocks in the utilities and consumer staples sectors could also be due to investors getting more defensive “after growth sectors and the overall market have been doing so well this year.”

    TV streaming device maker Roku snapped a 3-day winning streak after hitting a record high of $48.80, ending down 13.5% at $36.95.

    Advance Auto Parts soared 16.3% to $95.72 after it affirmed its full-year profit forecast and beat quarterly profit estimates.Reuters

    Market indices

    Market indices
    ^ Market indices today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: Google Finance

    Index Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 16 YTD
    S&P 500 SPX (INX) 2,578.87 -0.24% 2,238.83 +15.18%
    DJIA INDU 23,409.47 -0.13% 19,762.60 +18.45%
    NASDAQ IXIC 6,737.87 -0.30% 5,383.12 +25.16%

    Portfolio Indices

    USD and AUD denominated indices over the past 52 weeks (Chart: Bunting)
    ^ USD and AUD denominated indices over the past 52 weeks Chart: Bunting

    Index values

    Index Currency Today Change 31 Dec 16 YTD
    USD-denominated Index USD 3.074 -0.93% 2.105 +46.05%
    Valuation Rate USD/AUD 0.76805 +0.04% 0.72663 +5.70%
    AUD-denominated Index AUD 4.004 -0.98% 2.895 +38.29%

    Portfolio stock prices

    :-) Amazon closed on a record high of $1,136.84, beating its 8 Nov 2017 record of $1,132.88.
    :-) VMware closed on a record high of $122.47, beating its 10 Nov 2017 record of $122.15.

    Stock Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 16 YTD
    Alphabet A GOOGL $1041.97 +0.07% $792.45 +31.48%
    Alphabet C GOOG $1026.29 +0.09% $771.82 +32.97%
    Apple AAPL $171.32 -1.53% $115.82 +47.91%
    Amazon AMZN $1136.84 +0.70% $749.87 +51.6%
    Ebay EBAY $35.22 -1.71% $29.69 +18.62%
    Facebook FB $178.04 -0.42% $115.05 +54.75%
    PayPal PYPL $74.49 +0.63% $39.47 +88.72%
    Twitter TWTR $20.05 -0.6% $16.30 +23.00%
    Visa V $111.98 +0.52% $78.02 +43.52%
    VMware VMW $122.47 +0.51% $78.73 +55.55%

    FX: USD/AUD

    USD

    DXY movements
    ^ Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (DXY) movements today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: Bloomberg

    The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (DXY) decreased 0.5%, touching lowest in almost 3 weeks on the largest dip since 7 Sep 2017
    The EUR climbed 1.1% to USD 1.1794, reaching the strongest in almost 3 weeks on its 5th consecutive advance.
    Britain’s GBP gained 0.4% to USD 1.3168.
    Bloomberg

    AUD

    AUD movements
    ^ AUD movements against the USD today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: xe.com

    Oil and Gas Futures

    Oil prices eased for a third day on Tuesday as traders and investors questioned how much the prospect of further rises in U.S. output might overshadow some of the optimism that OPEC-led production cuts would tighten the balance between crude supply and demand.

    Traders said they were cautious about betting on further price rises.

    “Prices … are starting to look like a pause or pullback is needed,” said Greg McKenna, chief market strategist at futures brokerage AxiTrader.

    This sentiment comes in part on the back of rising U.S. oil output, which has grown by more than 14% since mid-2016 to a record 9.62 million barrels per day (bpd).

    The U.S. government said on Monday U.S. shale production in Dec 2017 would rise for a 12th consecutive month, increasing by 80,000 bpd.

    “The recent price support, namely the tension in the Middle East has been swept aside as rising rig counts and US shale output (are) in the focus of traders,” PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga said.

    Fitch Ratings said in its 2018 oil outlook that it assumed 2018 “average oil prices will be broadly unchanged year-on-year and that the recent price recovery with Brent exceeding $60 per barrel may not be sustained”.

    So far in 2017, Brent has averaged $54.5 per barrel.

    Despite the cautious sentiment, traders said oil prices were unlikely to fall far, largely due to supply restrictions led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia, which have helped reduce excess stockpiles.

    The International Energy Agency on Tuesday delivered a more cautious outlook for oil demand.

    In a monthly report, the Paris-based agency cut its oil demand forecast by 100,000 bpd for this year and next, to an estimated 1.5 million bpd in 2017 and 1.3 million bpd in 2018.

    The IEA said warmer temperatures could cut consumption, while sharply rising production from outside OPEC might mean the global market tilts back into surplus in the first half of 2018.

    “You cannot have the same forecast at $60 as you have at $40. You need to address that and the IEA is starting to make that adjustment,” Petromatrix strategist Olivier Jakob said.Reuters

    Futures prices

    Prices are as at 15:47 ET

    • NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI): $55.60/barrel -2.04% Chart
    • ICE (London) Brent North Sea Crude: $62.04/barrel -1.77% Chart
    • NYMEX Natural gas futures: $3.08/MMBTU -2.65% Chart

    IEA Oil Market Report

    OMR Extract [ser_iea_omr]

    Highlights (14 November 2017)

    • Higher prices and relatively mild early winter temperatures contributed to a downward revision to our demand forecast. Growth has been revised down by 0.1 mb/d for both 2017 and 2018 and we now see increases of 1.5 mb/d in 2017 (or 1.6%), to 97.7 mb/d, and 1.3 mb/d in 2018 (or 1.3%) to 98.9 mb/d.
    • Global oil supply rose 100 kb/d in October to 97.5 mb/d on higher flows from non-OPEC countries. Production was 470 kb/d below a year ago, with OPEC supply sharply down from high 4Q16 levels. Non-OPEC supply is expected to rise by 0.7 mb/d in 2017 and 1.4 mb/d next year, led by higher US output.
    • OPEC crude output fell 80 kb/d in October due mainly to lower supply from Algeria, Iraq, and Nigeria. Output of 32.53 mb/d, the lowest since May, was down 830 kb/d from the record rates seen a year ago. The compliance rate with supply cuts in October was 96% and for the year-to-date it was 87%.

    • Hurricane Harvey contributed to OECD industry stocks falling by 40 mb in September to below 3 000 mb for the first time in two years. Global stocks dropped by 63 mb in 3Q17, only the second quarterly draw since 2014. In October, stocks drew in the US and likely in China, but rose elsewhere.
    • Benchmark crude prices increased by $1-2/bbl in October versus September and pushed higher in early November, buoyed by tensions in the Middle East. Oil product markets weakened relative to crude following the return of US refineries to higher throughput levels.
    • For 4Q17, our refining throughput forecast is revised marginally lower to 80.8 mb/d, but refined product inventories are forecast to build as demand seasonally slows down. Relatively robust refining activity level continues into January and February 2018, with runs forecast to grow 1.1 mb/d y-o-y.
    • Our analysis of global oil balances implies oversupplied crude oil markets in 4Q17 and 1Q18. While refined product inventories are also forecast to increase, the main oil stock draws are expected from increased seasonal demand for LPG.

    omr_20171114

    Another New Normal?

    The events in Saudi Arabia have added extra momentum to the rally that has driven oil prices from lows of $45/bbl (Brent) in late June to around $63/bbl recently. To date, we have not seen any impact on the Saudi energy sector. However, we have seen real interruptions in Iraq where shipments from the north fell by an estimated 170 kb/d in October, as well as lower production in Algeria, Nigeria and Venezuela. In recent weeks, we also saw lower-than-expected production in the US, Mexico and the North Sea. These supply disruptions, geopolitical concerns, a growing expectation that the OPEC/non-OPEC output accord will be extended through 2018 at the end of the month, and with demand growth still robust, largely explain firmer prices.

    Does it mean the market has found a “new normal” where the accepted floor might have moved from $50/bbl to $60/bbl? This might be a tempting view, assuming supply disturbances will continue and tensions in the Middle East will not ease. However, if these problems do prove to be temporary, a fresh look at the fundamentals confirms the view we expressed last month that the market balance in 2018 does not look as tight as some would like, and there is not in fact a “new normal”.

    This month’s Report backs this up. We have reduced our demand numbers by 50 kb/d for 2017 and by 190 kb/d for 2018. The 2017 revision is not very large, although it includes a more significant downward revision in 4Q17 of 311 kb/d. This is partly because of northern hemisphere heating degree day numbers for the early winter season, revised demand data for some Middle East countries e.g. Iraq and Egypt, and modest changes elsewhere. We have also taken general account of prices rising, in broad terms, by about 20% since early September. For 2018, our demand outlook has been adjusted to reflect a lower estimate for heating degree days in the early months plus some impact from higher prices. (See: Oil demand response to prices).

    For the overall market balance, our changes to demand growth, which remains robust, and supply largely cancel each other out. Using a scenario whereby current levels of OPEC production are maintained, the oil market faces a difficult challenge in 1Q18 with supply expected to exceed demand by 0.6 mb/d followed by another, smaller, surplus of 0.2 mb/d in 2Q18. The reality is that even after some modest reductions to growth, non-OPEC production will follow this year’s 0.7 mb/d growth with 1.4 mb/d of additional production in 2018 and next year’s demand growth will struggle to match this. This is why, absent any geopolitical premium, we may not have seen a “new normal” for oil prices.

    Alongside this Report, the IEA is also releasing its World Energy Outlook 2017, whose horizon extends well beyond the five-year horizon contained in our Oil Report 2017, and which examines multiple potential long-term pathways for oil. Each of these scenarios responds to different assumptions about future policies and technologies. One is the “Low Oil Price Case” that examines what it might take to keep prices in a $50/bbl to $70/bbl range all the way through to 2040. The main conditions are: a high resource assumption for US tight oil; widespread up-take of digital and other technologies that help keep a lid on upstream costs; exceptionally rapid growth in the electric car fleet; and a favourable assumption about the ability of the main resource owners to weather the storm of lower revenues.

    One of the findings of this WEO-2017 “Low Oil Price Case” is that even a rapid growth in the electric car fleet is unlikely to have a substantial impact on oil consumption for passenger transport until the mid-2020s. Indeed, in the absence of a major switch in policy direction, there is likely to be continued robust growth in other sectors, including trucks, aviation, maritime transport and petrochemicals. This is a continuation of the strong demand growth we are seeing in our short term oil market analysis.

    International Energy Agency. “Oil Market Report“, 14 Nov 2017 More

    IEA World Energy Outlook 2017

    WEO 2017 Extract [ser_iea_weo]

    The resurgence in oil and gas production from the United States, deep declines in the cost of renewables and growing electrification are changing the face of the global energy system and upending traditional ways of meeting energy demand, according to the World Energy Outlook 2017. A cleaner and more diversified energy mix in China is another major driver of this transformation.

    Over the next 25 years, the world’s growing energy needs are met first by renewables and natural gas, as fast-declining costs turn solar power into the cheapest source of new electricity generation. Global energy demand is 30% higher by 2040 – but still half as much as it would have been without efficiency improvements. The boom years for coal are over — in the absence of large-scale carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) — and rising oil demand slows down but is not reversed before 2040 even as electric-car sales rise steeply.
    WEO-2017, the International Energy Agency’s flagship publication, finds that over the next two decades the global energy system is being reshaped by four major forces: the United States is set to become the undisputed global oil and gas leader; renewables are being deployed rapidly thanks to falling costs; the share of electricity in the energy mix is growing; and China’s new economic strategy takes it on a cleaner growth mode, with implications for global energy markets.

    Solar PV is set to lead capacity additions, pushed by deployment in China and India, meanwhile in the European Union, wind becomes the leading source of electricity soon after 2030.

    “Solar is forging ahead in global power markets as it becomes the cheapest source of electricity generation in many places, including China and India,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director. “Electric vehicles (EVs) are in the fast lane as a result of government support and declining battery costs but it is far too early to write the obituary of oil, as growth for trucks, petrochemicals, shipping and aviation keep pushing demand higher. The US becomes the undisputed leader for oil and gas production for decades, which represents a major upheaval for international market dynamics.”

    These themes – as well as the future role of oil and gas in the energy mix, how clean-energy technologies are deploying, and the need for more investment in CCUS – were among the key topics discussed by the world’s energy leaders at the IEA’s 2017 Ministerial Meeting in Paris last week.

    This year, WEO-2017 includes a special focus on China, where economic and energy policy changes underway will have a profound impact on the country’s energy mix, and continue to shape global trends. A new phase in the country’s development results in an economy that is less reliant on heavy industry and coal.

    At the same time, a strong emphasis on cleaner energy technologies, in large part to address poor air quality, is catapulting China to a position as a world leader in wind, solar, nuclear and electric vehicles and the source of more than a quarter of projected growth in natural gas consumption. As demand growth in China slows, other countries continue to push overall global demand higher – with India accounting for almost one-third of global growth to 2040.

    The shale oil and gas revolution in the United States continues thanks to the remarkable ability of producers to unlock new resources in a cost-effective way. By the mid-2020s, the United States is projected to become the world’s largest LNG exporter and a net oil exporter by the end of that decade.

    This is having a major impact on oil and gas markets, challenging incumbent suppliers and provoking a major reorientation of global trade flows, with consumers in Asia accounting for more than 70% of global oil and gas imports by 2040. LNG from the United States is also accelerating a major structural shift towards a more flexible and globalized gas market.

    WEO-2017 finds it is too early to write the obituary of oil. Global oil demand continues to grow to 2040, although at a steadily decreasing pace – while fuel efficiency and rising electrification bring a peak in oil used for passenger cars, even with a doubling of the car fleet to two billion. But other sectors – namely petrochemicals, trucks, aviation, and shipping – drive up oil demand to 105 million barrels a day by 2040.

    While carbon emissions have flattened in recent years, the report finds that global energy-related CO2 emissions increase slightly by 2040, but at a slower pace than in last year’s projections. Still, this is far from enough to avoid severe impacts of climate change.

    International Energy Agency. “World Energy Outlook“, 14 Nov 2017 Report

    flag_australia AU: Lending Finance. Sep 2017

    From the NewYorker

    Press Release Extract [ser_au_lending]
    September Key Figures Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Change
    TREND ESTIMATES
    Housing finance for owner occupation $ 20.941 bn $ 20.985 bn +0.2%
    Personal finance $ 6.094 bn $ 6.159 bn +1.1%
    Commercial finance $ 42.460 bn $ 41.821 bn -1.5%
    Lease finance $ 0.579 bn $ 0.575 bn -0.7%
    SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
    Housing finance for owner occupation $ 21.104 bn $ 20.665 bn -2.1%
    Personal finance $ 6.186 bn $ 6.237 bn +0.8%
    Commercial finance $ 43.422 bn $ 40.017 bn -7.8%
    Lease finance $ 0.573 bn $ 0.565 bn -1.3%

    Housing Finance for Owner Occupation

    The total value of owner occupied housing commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 0.2% in trend terms while the seasonally adjusted series fell 2.1%.

    Personal Finance

    The trend series for the value of total personal finance commitments rose 1.1% in September 2017 compared with August 2017. Fixed lending commitments rose 1.5% and revolving credit commitments rose 0.4%..

    The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total personal finance commitments rose 0.8%. Fixed lending commitments rose 3.9%, while revolving credit commitments fell 4.1%.

    Commercial Finance

    The trend series for the value of total commercial finance commitments fell 1.5% in September 2017 compared with August 2017. Fixed lending commitments fell 2.2% while revolving credit commitments rose 0.8%.

    The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total commercial finance commitments fell 7.8% in September 2017, after a rise of 1.9% in August 2017. Fixed lending commitments fell 12.9%, after a rise of 1.3% in the previous month. Revolving lending commitments rose 10.9%, following a 3.8% rise in the previous month.

    The value of commitments for the purchase of dwellings by individuals for rent or resale (trend) rose 0.1% in September 2017 while the seasonally adjusted series fell 4.1%.

    au_lending_20171114

    Lease Finance

    The trend series for the value of total lease finance commitments fell 0.7% in September 2017 and the seasonally adjusted series fell 1.3%, following a 0.6% fall in August 2017.

    Australian Bureau of Statistics, “5671.0 Lending Finance, Australia, Sep 2017“, 14 Nov 2017 More

    flag_europe EU: Industrial Production. Sep 2017

    Press Release Extract [ser_eu_production]

    In September 2017 compared with August 2017, seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by 0.6% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.5% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In August 2017, industrial production rose by 1.4% in the euro area and by 1.7% in the EU28.

    eu_production_20171114

    In September 2017 compared with September 2016, industrial production increased by 3.3% in the euro area and by 3.6% in the EU28.

    Monthly comparison by main industrial grouping and by Member State

    The decrease of 0.6% in industrial production in the euro area in September 2017, compared with August 2017, is due to production of capital goods falling by 1.6%, both energy and durable consumer goods by 0.9% and intermediate goods by 0.6%, while production of non-durable consumer goods rose by 0.1%.

    In the EU28, the decrease of 0.5% is due to production of capital goods falling by 1.4%, energy by 0.6%, both intermediate goods and non-durable consumer goods by 0.3% and durable consumer goods by 0.1%.

    Among Member States for which data are available, the largest decreases in industrial production were registered in Portugal (-6.7%), Denmark (-3.7%) and Greece (-3.6%), and the highest increases in the Netherlands (+4.3%), Sweden (+2.4%) and Estonia (+2.3%).

    Annual comparison by main industrial grouping and by Member State

    The increase of 3.3% in industrial production in the euro area in September 2017, compared with September 2016, is due to production of durable consumer goods rising by 6.9%, intermediate goods by 4.6%, capital goods by 4.5% and non-durable consumer goods by 1.5%, while production of energy fell by 1.7%.

    In the EU28, the increase of 3.6% is due to production of durable consumer goods rising by 6.6%, capital goods by 4.9%, intermediate goods by 4.7% and non-durable consumer goods by 1.6%, while production of energy fell by 0.1%.

    Among Member States for which data are available, the highest increases in industrial production were registered in Latvia (+12.9%), Slovenia (+8.6%) and Hungary (+8.0%). A decrease was observed in Ireland (-3.1%).

    Eurostat, “Industrial Production. Sep 2017“, 14 Nov 2017 More

    flag_europe EU: Flash Estimate EU and Euro Area GDP. Q3/2017

    Press Release Extract [ser_eu_gdp]

    Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.6% in both the euro area (EA19) and the EU28 during the third quarter of 2017, compared with the previous quarter, according to a flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

    eu_gdp_20171114

    In the second quarter of 2017, GDP grew by 0.7% in both zones. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 2.5% in both the euro area and the EU28 in the third quarter of 2017, after +2.3% and +2.4% respectively in the previous quarter. During the third quarter of 2017, GDP in the United States increased by 0.7% compared with the previous quarter (after +0.8% in the second quarter of 2017). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP grew by 2.3% (after +2.2% in the previous quarter).

    Eurostat, “Flash estimate for the third quarter of 2017: GDP up by 0.6% in both euro area and EU28, +2.5% in both zones compared with the third quarter of 2016 “, 14 Nov 2017 More

    flag_usa US: Producer Price Index. Oct 2017

    Press Release Extract [ser_us_ppi]

    The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.4 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.2 percent in August and edged down 0.1 percent in July. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in September, the largest rise since an advance of 2.8 percent for the 12 months ended February 2012.

    us_ppi_20171114

    us_ppi_20171114_year

    Within final demand in September, prices for final demand services rose 0.4 percent, and the index for final demand goods climbed 0.7 percent.

    Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.2 percent in September, the same as in August. For the 12 months ended in September, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 2.1 percent.

    Final Demand

    Final demand services: The index for final demand services increased 0.4 percent in September, the largest rise since moving up 0.5 percent in April. Over 60 percent of the September advance can be traced to a 0.8- percent increase in margins for final demand trade services. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) The index for final demand transportation and warehousing services jumped 1.0 percent. Prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing edged up 0.1 percent.

    Product detail: Nearly 30 percent of the increase in prices for final demand services can be attributed to margins for machinery, equipment, parts, and supplies wholesaling, which rose 1.3 percent. The indexes for apparel, footwear, and accessories retailing; health, beauty, and optical goods retailing; truck transportation of freight; deposit services (partial); and food and alcohol wholesaling also advanced. In contrast, prices for residential real estate loans (partial) fell 2.6 percent. The indexes for automobiles and automobile parts retailing and for apparel wholesaling also declined.

    Final demand goods: Prices for final demand goods rose 0.7 percent in September, the largest increase since moving up 1.0 percent in January. Over 80 percent of the September advance can be traced to the index for final demand energy, which climbed 3.4 percent. (Higher energy prices were likely the result of reduced refining capacity in the Gulf Coast area due to Hurricane Harvey.) Prices for final demand goods less foods and energy moved up 0.3 percent. The index for final demand foods was unchanged.

    Product detail: Two-thirds of the September increase in the final demand goods index can be attributed to prices for gasoline, which jumped 10.9 percent. The indexes for jet fuel, motor vehicles, diesel fuel, fresh and dry vegetables, and chicken eggs also moved higher. Conversely, prices for young chickens fell 4.7 percent. The indexes for electric power and integrated microcircuits also declined.

    Intermediate Demand by Commodity Type

    Within intermediate demand in September, prices for processed goods advanced 0.5 percent, the index for unprocessed goods fell 0.4 percent, and prices for services edged up 0.1 percent.

    Processed goods for intermediate demand: The index for processed goods for intermediate demand climbed 0.5 percent in September, the largest rise since a 0.5-percent increase in April. Most of the September advance can be traced to prices for processed energy goods, which moved up 2.4 percent. The index for processed materials less foods and energy rose 0.2 percent. In contrast, prices for processed foods and feeds decreased 0.6 percent. For the 12 months ended in September, the index for processed goods for intermediate demand advanced 4.3 percent.

    Product detail: A major factor in the September increase in prices for processed goods for intermediate demand was the index for diesel fuel, which rose 4.8 percent. Prices for gasoline, jet fuel, nonferrous mill shapes, processed eggs, and nonferrous wire and cable also moved higher. Conversely, the index for young chickens fell 4.7 percent. Prices for commercial electric power and biological products also declined.

    Unprocessed goods for intermediate demand: The index for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand moved down 0.4 percent in September, the third consecutive decline. The September decrease can be traced primarily to a 1.7-percent drop in prices for unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs. The index for unprocessed energy materials fell 0.8 percent. In contrast, prices for unprocessed nonfood materials less energy advanced 2.0 percent. For the 12 months ended in September, the index for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand increased 7.0 percent.

    Product detail: Leading the September decline in the index for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand, prices for slaughter hogs dropped 18.4 percent. The indexes for natural gas, raw milk, slaughter poultry, corn, and wastepaper also moved lower. Conversely, prices for nonferrous metal ores advanced 6.5 percent. The indexes for oilseeds and crude petroleum also rose.

    Services for intermediate demand: The index for services for intermediate demand edged up 0.1 percent in September following a 0.2-percent advance in August. Leading the September increase, margins for trade services for intermediate demand rose 0.4 percent. Prices for transportation and warehousing services for intermediate demand also moved higher, climbing 0.6 percent. In contrast, the index for services less trade, transportation, and warehousing for intermediate demand inched down 0.1 percent. For the 12 months ended in September, prices for services for intermediate demand advanced 2.7 percent.

    Product detail: A 1.8-percent rise in margins for machinery and equipment parts and supplies wholesaling was a major contributor to the September increase in prices for services for intermediate demand. The indexes for deposit services (partial); food and alcohol wholesaling; securities brokerage, dealing, and investment advice; and courier, messenger, and U.S. postal services also moved higher. Conversely, prices for loan services (partial) fell 2.9 percent. The indexes for metals, minerals, and ores wholesaling; television advertising time sales; and marketing consulting services also decreased.

    Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Producer Price Index. Oct 2017“, 14 Nov 2017 (08:30) More

    flag_japan Japan update

    Currency: USD/JPY

    JPY movements
    ^ JPY movements against the USD over the past month (mouseover for inverse) Chart: xe.com

    Stockmarket: Nikkei 225

    N225 movements
    ^ Nikkei N225 movements over the past week Chart: Google Finance

    flag_china China update

    Currency: USD/CNY

    CNY movements
    ^ CNY movements against the USD over the past month (mouseover for inverse) Chart: xe.com

    Stockmarket: CSI300

    CSI300 movements
    ^ Shanghai CSI300 movements over the past week Chart: Google Finance