Mon 4 Dec 2017


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In Portfolioticker today

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  • Today at the stock market Opinion
  • The portfolio today Opinion
  • News
  • flag_japan Japan Update
  • flag_china China Update
  • Today at the stock market

    bull/bearThe Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a record high on Monday, with banks and retailers surging and technology companies falling as investors realigned their portfolios in hopes of benefiting from expected corporate tax cuts.

    • The S&P 500 index fell 0.11% to 2,639.44. Earlier in the session, the S&P 500 had touched a record high.
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.24% to end at 24,290.05 points.
    • The Nasdaq Composite index fell 72.22 points to end at 6,775.37.
    • Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.03-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.27-to-1 ratio favored decliners.
    • About 7.8 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, well above the 6.7 billion daily average for the past 20 trading days, according to Thomson Reuters data.

    The S&P 500 is up 18% in 2017 on strong corporate earnings and solid economic growth, as well as expectations that President Donald Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress would cut taxes and corporate regulation. The index is now trading at about 18.2 times expected earnings, its highest level since 2002, according to Thomson Reuters Datastream.

    Investors freed up money to buy banks, department stores and other stocks seen benefiting from lower taxes by selling technology stocks, which have become relatively expensive after leading the market’s gains this year.

    “People are rotating into consumer discretionary and away from technology because of tax advantages from the new bill,” said Michael Matousek, head trader at U.S. Global Investors Inc in San Antonio, Texas.

    Banks: Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo & Co and Citigroup rose over 2% after the Republican-dominated U.S. Senate approved its tax bill on Saturday. Once the Senate and House of Representatives reconcile their respective versions of the legislation, the resulting bill could cut corporate tax rates to 20% from 35%. “It will likely result in increased dividends and share repurchases, and that makes valuations more reasonable and should prolong the rally,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer of Solaris Group in Bedford Hills, New York. Also lifting financial stocks was a broad expectation that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates in Dec 2017, which makes bank lending more profitable.

    Technology: The S&P 500 information technology index has surged 34% in 2017, the market’s top performer. But after it had fallen 3% since 28 Nov 2017, investors on Monday became more concerned about the longevity of the sector’s rally. Microsoft fell 3.77%, Nvidia fell 5.57% and PayPal Holdings fell 5.75%.

    Retail: Many department stores pay high tax rates and stand to benefit from the Republican cuts. Macy’s rose 6.65% and Nordstrom rose 3.87%.

    Media: Media stocks rose after the Financial Times reported that Twenty-first Century Fox had resumed talks to potentially sell most of its assets to Walt Disney. Disney rose 4.72% and Fox rose 2.80%.

    Health: CVS Health shares fell 4.57% after the company agreed to buy Aetna for $69 billion in the year’s largest corporate acquisition. Aetna shares fell 1.44%.Reuters

    Market indices

    Market indices
    ^ Market indices today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: Google Finance

    Index Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 16 YTD
    S&P 500 SPX (INX) 2,639.44 -0.11% 2,238.83 +17.89%
    DJIA INDU 24,290.05 +0.24% 19,762.60 +22.90%
    NASDAQ IXIC 6,775.37 -1.06% 5,383.12 +25.86%

    Portfolio Indices

    USD and AUD denominated indices over the past 52 weeks (Chart: Bunting)
    ^ USD and AUD denominated indices over the past 52 weeks Chart: Bunting

    Index values

    Index Currency Today Change 31 Dec 16 YTD
    USD-denominated Index USD 3.032 -1.26% 2.105 +44.07%
    Valuation Rate USD/AUD 0.76440 -0.21% 0.72663 +5.19%
    AUD-denominated Index AUD 3.968 -1.06% 2.895 +37.06%

    Portfolio stock prices

    Stock Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 16 YTD
    Alphabet A GOOGL $1,011.87 -1.29% $792.45 +27.68%
    Alphabet C GOOG $998.68 -1.14% $771.82 +29.39%
    Apple AAPL $169.80 -0.74% $115.82 +46.60%
    Amazon AMZN $1,133.95 -2.45% $749.87 +51.21%
    Ebay EBAY $35.70 +1.42% $29.69 +20.24%
    Facebook FB $171.47 -2.08% $115.05 +49.03%
    PayPal PYPL $70.97 -5.76% $39.47 +79.80%
    Twitter TWTR $20.40 -1.50% $16.30 +25.15%
    Visa V $107.43 -2.99% $78.02 +37.69%
    VMware VMW $115.09 -7.52% $78.73 +46.18%

    FX: USD/AUD

    USD

    DXY movements
    ^ Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (DXY) movements today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: Bloomberg

    The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (DXY) rose 0.2%.
    The EUR fell 0.3% to USD 1.1855.
    Britain’s GBP fell 0.1% to USD 1.3464.
    Japan’s JPY fell 0.3% to 112.52 per USD.
    Bloomberg

    AUD

    AUD movements
    ^ AUD movements against the USD today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: xe.com

    Oil and Gas Futures

    Futures prices

    Prices are as at 15:47 ET

    • NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI): $57.40/barrel -1.64% Chart
    • ICE (London) Brent North Sea Crude: $62.36/barrel -2.15% Chart
    • NYMEX Natural gas futures: $2.97/MMBTU -3.01% Chart

    flag_australia AU: ABS Business Indicators. Sep 2017

    Press Release Extract [ser_abs_businessindicators]

    Chain volume (trend) estimates – September quarter 2017:

    • inventories rose 0.1%. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.2%.
    • manufacturing sales of goods and services rose 0.9%. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 2.0%.
    • wholesale trade sales of goods and services fell 0.4%. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.7%.

    Current price estimates (seasonally adjusted) – September quarter 2017:

    • company gross operating profits fell 0.2%.
    • wages and salaries rose 1.1% .

    Industry analysis

    Mining:

    • In current prices, the trend estimate for company gross operating profits fell 4.3% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 3.3%. In current price terms, the trend estimate for wages and salaries rose 1.4% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 1.5%.
    • In volume terms, the trend estimate for sales of goods and services rose 1.9% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 7.3%. In volume terms, the trend estimate for inventories fell 0.6% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 5.1%.

    Manufacturing:

    • In current prices, the trend estimate for company gross operating profits fell 2.0% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 6.4%. In current price terms, the trend estimate for wages and salaries rose 0.8% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.8%.
    • In volume terms, the trend estimate for sales of goods and services rose 0.9% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 2.0%. In volume terms, the trend estimate for inventories rose 1.2% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 2.0%.
    • The seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits fell 0.2% in the September quarter 2017. The seasonally adjusted estimate for wages and salaries rose 1.1% in the September quarter 2017.

    Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services:

    • In current prices, the trend estimate for company gross operating profits rose 5.4% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.4%. In current price terms, the trend estimate for wages and salaries rose 0.9% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.7%.
    • In volume terms, the trend estimate for sales of goods and services rose 1.8% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 1.5%. In volume terms, the trend estimate for inventories fell 2.3% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 2.0%.

    Construction:

    • In current prices, the trend estimate for company gross operating profits fell 4.5% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 0.5%. In current price terms, the trend estimate for wages and salaries rose 2.2% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 3.0%.
    • In volume terms, the trend estimate for sales of goods and services rose 2.0% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 1.6%.

    Wholesale Trade:

    • In current prices, the trend estimate for company gross operating profits rose 1.5% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 2.6%. In current price terms, the trend estimate for wages and salaries rose 0.1% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 0.2%.
    • In volume terms, the trend estimate for sales of goods and services fell 0.4% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.7%. In volume terms, the trend estimate for inventories fell 0.5% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.3%.

    Retail Trade:

    • In current prices, the trend estimate for company gross operating profits rose 1.6% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 4.3%. In current price terms, the trend estimate for wages and salaries rose 0.5% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.9%.
    • In volume terms, the trend estimate for sales of goods and services rose 0.3% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 0.1%. In volume terms, the trend estimate for inventories fell 0.4% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.1%.

    Accommodation and Food Services:

    • In current prices, the trend estimate for company gross operating profits fell 0.5% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 0.1%. In current price terms, the trend estimate for wages and salaries rose 1.7% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 2.1%.
    • In volume terms, the trend estimate for sales of goods and services rose 1.8% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 1.0%. In volume terms, the trend estimate for inventories rose 1.4% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 1.3%.

    Transport, Postal and Warehousing:

    • In current prices, the trend estimate for company gross operating profits fell 0.6% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 1.7%. In current price terms, the trend estimate for wages and salaries rose 0.5% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 1.3%.
    • In volume terms, the trend estimate for sales of goods and services rose 0.6% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.3%.

    Information, media and Telecommunications:

    • In current prices, the trend estimate for company gross operating profits rose 2.9% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 12.2%. In current price terms, the trend estimate for wages and salaries rose 0.1% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 3.3%.
    • In volume terms, the trend estimate for sales of goods and services rose 0.1% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 2.0%.

    Financial and Insurance Services:

    • In current prices, the trend estimate for company gross operating profits rose 10.8% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 12.4%. In current price terms, the trend estimate for wages and salaries rose 1.7% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 1.8%.
    • In volume terms, the trend estimate for sales of goods and services rose 4.4% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 3.6%.

    Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services:

    • In current prices, the trend estimate for company gross operating profits fell 4.1% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 9.2%. In current price terms, the trend estimate for wages and salaries rose 0.6% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 1.6%.
    • In volume terms, the trend estimate for sales of goods and services rose 0.1% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 1.0%.

    Professional, Scientific and Technical Services:

    • In current prices, the trend estimate for company gross operating profits rose 3.7% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 14.6%. In current price terms, the trend estimate for wages and salaries rose 2.4% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 2.6%.
    • In volume terms, the trend estimate for sales of goods and services rose 1.1% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.8%.

    Administrative and Support Services:

    • In current prices, the trend estimate for company gross operating profits fell 1.4% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 4.7%. In current price terms, the trend estimate for wages and salaries rose 1.2% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 1.4%.
    • In volume terms, the trend estimate for sales of goods and services rose 1.4% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.7%.

    Education and Training:

    • In current price terms, the trend estimate for wages and salaries fell 0.1% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.5%.

    Health Care and Social Assistance:

    • In current price terms, the trend estimate for wages and salaries rose 0.9% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 0.2%.

    Arts and Recreation Services:

    • In current prices, the trend estimate for company gross operating profits fell 1.9% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 0.7%. In current price terms, the trend estimate for wages and salaries rose 0.4% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 1.1%.
    • In volume terms, the trend estimate for sales of goods and services fell 0.3% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.4%.

    Other Services:

    • In current prices, the trend estimate for company gross operating profits rose 3.9% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 12.4%. In current price terms, the trend estimate for wages and salaries rose 0.7% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 1.5%.
    • In volume terms, the trend estimate for sales of goods and services fell 0.3% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 2.1%.

    Australian Bureau of Statistics, “5676.0 Business Indicators, Australia, September 2017.“, 4 Dec 2017 More

    flag_europe EU: Industrial Producer Prices, Domestic Market. Oct 2017

    Press Release Extract [ser_eu_ipp]

    In October 2017, compared with September 2017, industrial producer prices rose by 0.4% in both the euro area (EA19) and the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In September 2017, prices increased by 0.5% in both zones.

    eu_ipp_20171204

    In October 2017, compared with October 2016, industrial producer prices rose by 2.5% in the euro area and by 2.6% in the EU28.

    Monthly comparison by main industrial grouping and by Member State

    The 0.4% increase in industrial producer prices in total industry in the euro area in October 2017, compared with September 2017, is due to rises of 1.3% in the energy sector and of 0.3% for intermediate goods, while prices remained stable for both capital and durable consumer goods and fell by 0.2% for non-durable consumer goods.

    In the EU28, the 0.4% increase is due to rises of 1.2% in the energy sector and of 0.3% for intermediate goods, while prices remained stable for both capital and durable consumer goods and fell by 0.1% for non-durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy rose by 0.1%.

    The highest increases in industrial producer prices were observed in Belgium (+2.4%), Ireland (+1.5%), Romania (+1.0%) and Spain (+0.8%), while decreases were observed in Denmark (-1.5%), Cyprus and Latvia (both -0.5%) and Estonia (-0.4%).

    Annual comparison by main industrial grouping and by Member State

    The 2.5% increase in industrial producer prices in total industry in the euro area in October 2017, compared with October 2016, is due to rises of 3.5% for intermediate goods, of 3.1% in the energy sector, of 1.9% for non-durable consumer goods, of 0.9% for capital goods and of 0.6% for durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy rose by 2.3%.

    In the EU28, the 2.6% price increase is due to rises of 3.6% for intermediate goods, of 3.5% in the energy sector, of 2.3% for non-durable consumer goods and of 0.9% for both capital and durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy rose by 2.5%.

    Industrial producer prices rose in all Member States, with the largest increases recorded in Belgium (+6.9%), Bulgaria (+5.5%), Poland (+4.5%), Hungary (+4.4%) and Ireland (+4.3%).

    Eurostat, “Industrial Producer Prices, Domestic Market. Oct 2017“, 4 Dec 2017 More

    flag_usa US: Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, Orders. Oct 2017

    Press Release Extract [ser_us_durables]

    Summary
    New orders for manufactured goods in October, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $479.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.7 percent September increase. Shipments, up ten of the last eleven months, increased $2.7 billion or 0.6 percent to $484.2 billion. This followed a 1.1 percent September increase. Unfilled orders, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.2 billion or virtually unchanged to $1,135.1 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent September increase. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.68, unchanged from September.
    Inventories, up eleven of the last twelve months, increased $1.2 billion or 0.2 percent to $661.6 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent September increase. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.37, unchanged from September.

    New Orders

    New orders for manufactured durable goods in October, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $1.9 billion or 0.8 percent to $237.4 billion, up from the previously published 1.2 percent decrease. This followed a 2.4 percent September increase. Transportation equipment, also down following two consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $3.4 billion or 4.2 percent to $77.4 billion. New orders for manufactured nondurable goods increased $1.6 billion or 0.7 percent to $242.2 billion.

    Shipments

    Shipments of manufactured durable goods in October, up five of the last six months, increased $1.1 billion or 0.4 percent to $242.0 billion, up from the previously published 0.1 percent increase. This followed a 1.2 percent September increase. Primary metals, up three of the last four months, led the increase, $0.3 billion or 1.6 percent to $19.9 billion. Shipments of manufactured nondurable goods, up six of the last seven months, increased $1.6 billion or 0.7 percent to $242.2 billion. This followed a 1.0 percent September increase. Petroleum and coal products, up four consecutive months, led the increase, $1.2 billion or 2.6 percent to $46.2 billion.

    Unfilled Orders

    Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in October, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.2 billion or virtually unchanged to $1,135.1 billion, unchanged from the previously published decrease. This followed a 0.3 percent September increase. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $1.8 billion or 0.2 percent to $770.0 billion.

    Inventories

    Inventories of manufactured durable goods in October, up fifteen of the last sixteen months, increased $0.6 billion or 0.2 percent to $404.2 billion, up from the previously published 0.1 percent increase. This followed a 0.6 percent September increase. Primary metals, also up fifteen of the last sixteen months, led the increase, $0.3 billion or 0.8 percent to $34.0 billion. Inventories of manufactured nondurable goods, up five consecutive months, increased $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent to $257.3 billion. This followed a 0.7 percent September increase. Chemical products, up three of the last four months, drove the increase, $0.9 billion or 1.0 percent to $84.1 billion. By stage of fabrication, October materials and supplies decreased 0.4 percent in durable goods and decreased 0.3 percent in nondurable goods. Work in process increased 1.0 percent in durable goods and decreased 0.3 percent in nondurable goods. Finished goods decreased 0.4 percent in durable goods and increased 0.9 percent in nondurable goods.

    US Census Bureau, “Monthly Full Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders, Oct 2017“, 4 Dec 2017 (10:00) More

    flag_japan Japan update

    Consumer Confidence Index. Nov 2017

    The Consumer Confidence Index in Japan increased to 44.9 in November of 2017 from 44.5 in the prior month and slightly above market consensus of 44.8. It was the highest reading since September 2013, as perception improved for all components: overall livelihood (up 0.2 points from the prior month to 43.2), income growth (up 0.5 points to 43.0), employment (up 0.6 points to 49.3) and the willingness to buy (up 0.4 points to 44.0). TradingEconomics

    Currency: USD/JPY

    JPY movements
    ^ JPY movements against the USD over the past month (mouseover for inverse) Chart: xe.com

    Stockmarket: Nikkei 225

    N225 movements
    ^ Nikkei N225 movements over the past week Chart: Google Finance

    flag_china China update

    Currency: USD/CNY

    CNY movements
    ^ CNY movements against the USD over the past month (mouseover for inverse) Chart: xe.com

    Stockmarket: CSI300

    CSI300 movements
    ^ Shanghai CSI300 movements over the past week Chart: Google Finance