In Portfolioticker today
- Energy: Oil and Gas Futures
- AU: International Trade in Goods and Services. Nov 2017
- EU: Flash Estimate Euro Area Inflation. Dec 2017
- EU: Industrial Producer Prices, Domestic Market. Nov 2017
- US: International Trade in Goods and Services. Nov 2017
- US: Employment Situation. Dec 2017
- US: ISM Report on Business (PMI) – Non-Manufacturing. Dec 2017
- US: Full Report – Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders. Nov 2017
Today at the stock market
“The S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched their best weekly gains in more than a year on Friday as technology stocks helped lift major indexes to records. It was the strongest start to a year for all three major indexes since 2013.
A U.S. tax overhaul last month that includes hefty corporate tax cuts helped to fuel late-year gains and was the first major legislative victory in President Donald Trump’s pro-growth agenda since he took office a year ago.
U.S. stocks this week have been adding to momentum from 2017, driven by a series of strong economic reports from across the globe and expectations for strong fourth-quarter earnings, with all three major indexes hitting milestones in the last few days.
The Dow broke above 25,000 for the first time on Thursday, while the S&P closed above 2,700 on Wednesday and the Nasdaq settled above 7,000 earlier in the week.
- The S&P 500 indices gained 19.16 points, or 0.70%, to 2,743.15
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 220.74 points, or 0.88%, to 25,295.87,
- The Nasdaq Composite index rose 58.64 points, or 0.83%, to 7,136.56.
- Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.52-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.47-to-1 ratio favored advancers.
- About 6.3 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, the same as the 6.3 billion daily average for the past 20 trading days, according to Thomson Reuters data.
“We’re up over 2% for the first 4 days of 2018, so that’s pretty good. Markets are still working to figure out the implications of tax cuts, and that’s provided some of the lift along with already good economic forecasts,” said Mike Baele, managing director at U.S. Bank Private Client Wealth Management in Portland, Oregon.
Weaker-than-expected Dec 2017 U.S. jobs data also could help the Federal Reserve stick to its policy of gradual interest rate hikes in 2018, which would be good for stocks, Baele said.
U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in Dec 2017 amid a decline in retail employment, but a pickup in monthly wages pointed to labor market strength. Non-farm payrolls increased by 148,000 jobs in Dec 2017, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a rise of 190,000.
The S&P technology index’s 1.2% gain led the advancers among the 11 major S&P sectors, with gains in Microsoft, Apple and Google-parent Alphabet boosting the index.
The year’s strong start follows a surprisingly sharp rally in 2017 that ended with the S&P 500 up 19.4% on the year.
For the week, the Dow rose 2.3%, the S&P 500 gained 2.6% and the Nasdaq climbed 3.4%. Those were the biggest weekly gains for the S&P and Nasdaq since Dec 2016.” Reuters
^ Market indices today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: Google Finance
Major market indices closed on record highs today.
|Index||Ticker||Today||Change||31 Dec 17||YTD|
|S&P 500||SPX (INX)||2,743.15||+0.70%||2,673.61||+2.60%|
^ USD and AUD denominated indices over the past 52 weeks Chart: Bunting
Our USD denominated index closed on a record high.
|Index||Currency||Today||Change||31 Dec 17||YTD|
Portfolio stock prices
All of our portfolio stocks, other than for Apple and Twitter, closed on record highs.
Apple remains $1.42 (0.80%) below its 18 Dec 2017 record high of $176.42.
|Stock||Ticker||Today||Change||31 Dec 17||YTD|
^ Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (DXY) movements today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: Bloomberg
“The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (DXY) was little changed after dropping 0.1%. It declined for a 4th straight week.
The EUR fell 0.2% to USD 1.204.
Japan’s JPY weakened for a third day, dropping 0.3% to 113.13 per USD.” Bloomberg
^ AUD movements against the USD today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: xe.com
Oil and Gas Futures
Prices are as at 15:49 ET
- NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI): $61.55/barrel -0.74% Chart
- ICE (London) Brent North Sea Crude: $67.73/barrel -0.50% Chart
- NYMEX Natural gas futures: $2.79/MMBTU -3.09% Chart
AU: International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia. Nov 2017
Press Release Extract [ser_45]
“Credits (Exports of Goods and Services)
In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $141m to $31,853m. Non-rural goods rose $394m (2%) and rural goods rose $25m (1%). Non-monetary gold fell $425m (23%). Net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $53m. Services credits rose $147m (2%).
Debits (Imports of Goods and Services)
In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $467m (1%) to $32,481m. Consumption goods rose $213m (3%), capital goods rose $190m (3%) and intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $81m (1%). Non-monetary gold fell $100m (25%). Services debits rose $83m (1%).
Balance on Goods and Services
In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $194m in November 2017, a turnaround of $296m on the surplus in October 2017.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $628m in November 2017, an increase of $326m on the deficit in October 2017.”
Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Change EXPORTS of goods and services (Credits) Trend estimates $32,060m $31,955m $31,852m -0% Seasonally adjusted $32,595m $31,712m $31,853m +0% IMPORTS of goods and services (Debits) Trend estimates $31,637m $31,852m $32,047m +1% Seasonally adjusted $31,426m $32,014m $32,481m +1% BALANCE on goods and services Trend estimates +$423m +$102m -$194m loss Seasonally adjusted +$1,169m -$302m -$628m -108%
Australian Bureau of Statistics, “5368.0 – International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, Nov 2017“, 5 Jan 2018 More
EU: Flash Estimate Euro Area Inflation. Dec 2017
Press Release Extract [eu_cpi]
Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 1.4% in December 2017, down from 1.5% in November 2017, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.
Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in December (3.0%, compared with 4.7% in November), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (2.1%, compared with 2.2% in November), services (1.2%, stable compared with November) and non-energy industrial goods (0.5%, compared with 0.4% in November).”
Eurostat, “Flash estimate – December 2017: Euro area annual inflation down to 1.4%“, 5 Jan 2018 More
EU: Industrial Producer Prices, Domestic Market. Nov 2017
Press Release Extract [eu_ipp]
In November 2017, compared with October 2017, industrial producer prices rose by 0.6% in both the euro area (EA19) and the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In October 2017, prices increased by 0.4% in both zones.
In November 2017, compared with November 2016, industrial producer prices rose by 2.8% in the euro area and by 3.1% in the EU28.
Monthly comparison by main industrial grouping and by Member State
The 0.6% increase in industrial producer prices in total industry in the euro area in November 2017, compared with October 2017, is due to rises of 2.3% in the energy sector, of 0.2% for intermediate goods and of 0.1% for capital goods, while prices remained stable for durable consumer goods and fell by 0.2% for non-durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy remained stable.
In the EU28, the 0.6% increase is due to rises of 2.5% in the energy sector, of 0.2% for intermediate goods and of 0.1% for both capital goods and durable consumer goods, while prices fell by 0.2% for non-durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy remained stable.
The highest increases in industrial producer prices were observed in the Netherlands (+1.9%), Denmark (+1.8%), Belgium (+1.7%) and France (+1.4%), while decreases were observed in Cyprus (-0.5%), Ireland (-0.3%) and the Czech Republic (-0.1%).
Annual comparison by main industrial grouping and by Member State
The 2.8% increase in industrial producer prices in total industry in the euro area in November 2017, compared with November 2016, is due to rises of 4.9% in the energy sector, of 3.2% for intermediate goods, of 1.7% for nondurable consumer goods, of 1.0% for capital goods and of 0.7% for durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy rose by 2.1%.
In the EU28, the 3.1% price increase is due to rises of 5.9% in the energy sector, of 3.4% for intermediate goods, of 1.9% for non-durable consumer goods and of 1.0% for both capital goods and durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy rose by 2.2%.
Industrial producer prices rose in all Member States. The largest increases were recorded in Belgium (+7.1%), Bulgaria (+5.8%), the United Kingdom (+5.1%), Hungary (+4.7%) and the Netherlands (+4.6%).”
Eurostat, “November 2017 compared with October 2017: Industrial producer prices up by 0.6% in both euro area and EU28“, 5 Jan 2018 More
US: International Trade in Goods and Services. Nov 2017
Press Release Extract [us_trade]
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $50.5 billion in November, up $1.6 billion from $48.9 billion in October, revised. November exports were $200.2 billion, $4.4 billion more than October exports. November imports were $250.7 billion, $6.0 billion more than October imports.
The November increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $1.7 billion to $70.9 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $20.4 billion.
Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $53.4 billion, or 11.6 percent, from the same period in 2016. Exports increased $112.7 billion or 5.6 percent. Imports increased $166.1 billion or 6.7 percent.
Goods and Services Three-Month Moving Averages
The average goods and services deficit increased $2.1 billion to $48.1 billion for the three months ending in November.
- Average exports of goods and services increased $2.2 billion to $197.3 billion in November.
- Average imports of goods and services increased $4.2 billion to $245.4 billion in November.
Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $5.5 billion from the three months ending in November 2016.
- Average exports of goods and services increased $11.1 billion from November 2016.
- Average imports of goods and services increased $16.6 billion from November 2016.
Exports of goods increased $4.4 billion to $134.6 billion in November.
Exports of goods on a Census basis increased $4.3 billion.
- Capital goods increased $2.5billion.
o Civilian aircraft increased $1.2 billion.
- Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines increased $1.0 billion.
o Passenger cars increased $0.6 billion.
- Consumer goods increased $0.7 billion.
Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.1 billion.
Exports of services increased $0.1 billion to $65.7 billion in November.
- Other business services, which includes research and development services; professional and management services; and technical, trade-related, and other services, increased $0.1 billion.
- Financial services increased $0.1 billion.
- Maintenance and repair services decreased $0.1 billion.
Imports of goods increased $6.0 billion to $205.5 billion in November.
Imports of goods on a Census basis increased $6.0 billion.
- Consumer goods increased $2.4 billion.
o Cell phones and other household goods increased $1.1 billion.
- Industrial supplies and materials increased $2.2 billion.
o Crude oil increased $1.1 billion.
- Capital goods increased $1.6 billion.
o Semiconductors increased $0.8 billion.
Net balance of payments adjustments increased less than $0.1 billion.
Imports of services decreased less than $0.1 billion to $45.3 billion in November.
- Transport decreased $0.2 billion.
- Travel (for all purposes including education) increased $0.1 billion.
- Charges for the use of intellectual property increased $0.1 billion.
Real Goods in 2009 Dollars – Census Basis
The real goods deficit increased $1.1 billion to $66.7 billion in November.
- Real exports of goods increased $3.1 billion to $128.6 billion.
- Real imports of goods increased $4.2 billion to $195.3 billion.
Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis
The November figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with Hong Kong ($2.8), South and Central America ($2.6), Singapore ($1.0), United Kingdom ($0.4), and Brazil ($0.3). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($33.5), European Union ($13.5), Mexico ($5.8), Japan ($5.8), Germany ($5.3), Italy ($2.8), India ($2.4), South Korea ($1.7), OPEC ($1.3), France ($1.3), Canada ($1.1), Taiwan ($0.9), and Saudi Arabia ($0.2).
- The deficit with China increased $1.5 billion to $33.5 billion in November. Exports increased $0.2 billion to $10.8 billion and imports increased $1.8 billion to $44.2 billion.
- The deficit with the European Union increased $1.5 billion to $13.5 billion in November. Exports decreased $1.0 billion to $24.0 billion and imports increased $0.5 billion to $37.5 billion.
- The deficit with South Korea decreased $1.0 billion to $1.7 billion in November. Exports increased $0.3 billion to $4.0 billion and imports decreased $0.7 billion to $5.7 billion.
Revisions to October exports
- Exports of goods were revised down $0.1 billion.
- Exports of services were revised up less than $0.1 billion.
Revisions to October imports
- Imports of goods were revised up less than $0.1 billion
- Imports of services were revised up less than $0.1 billion.“
Bureau of Economic Analysis and US Census Bureau, “International Trade in Goods and Services. Nov 2017“, 5 Jan 2018 (08:30) More
US: Employment Situation. Dec 2017
Press Release Extract [us_jobs]
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 148,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in health care, construction, and manufacturing.
Household Survey Data
In December, the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent for the third consecutive month. The number of unemployed persons, at 6.6 million, was essentially unchanged over the month. Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons were down by 0.6 percentage point and 926,000, respectively.
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for teenagers declined to 13.6 percent in December, offsetting an increase in November. In December, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.8 percent), adult women (3.7 percent), Whites (3.7 percent), Blacks (6.8 percent), Asians (2.5 percent), and Hispanics (4.9 percent) showed little or no change.
Among the unemployed, the number of new entrants decreased by 116,000 in December. New entrants are unemployed persons who never previously worked.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.5 million in December and accounted for 22.9 percent of the unemployed. Over the year, the number of long-term unemployed declined by 354,000.
The labor force participation rate, at 62.7 percent, was unchanged over the month and over the year. The employment-population ratio was unchanged at 60.1 percent in December but was up by 0.3 percentage point over the year.
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged at 4.9 million in December but was down by 639,000 over the year. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.
In December, 1.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, about unchanged from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
Among the marginally attached, there were 474,000 discouraged workers in December, little changed from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.1 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in December had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.
Establishment Survey Data
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 148,000 in December. Job gains occurred in health care, construction, and manufacturing. In 2017, payroll employment growth totaled 2.1 million, compared with a gain of 2.2 million in 2016.
Employment in health care increased by 31,000 in December. Employment continued to trend up in ambulatory health care services (+15,000) and hospitals (+12,000). Health care added 300,000 jobs in 2017, compared with a gain of 379,000 jobs in 2016.
Construction added 30,000 jobs in December, with most of the increase among specialty trade contractors (+24,000). In 2017, construction employment increased by 210,000, compared with a gain of 155,000 in 2016.
In December, manufacturing employment rose by 25,000, largely reflecting a gain in durable goods industries (+21,000). Manufacturing added 196,000 jobs in 2017, following little net change in 2016 (-16,000).
Employment in food services and drinking places changed little in December (+25,000). Over the year, the industry added 249,000 jobs, about in line with an increase of 276,000 in 2016.
In December, employment changed little in professional and business services (+19,000). In 2017, the industry added an average of 44,000 jobs per month, in line with its average monthly gain in 2016.
Employment in retail trade was about unchanged in December (-20,000). Within the industry, employment in general merchandise stores declined by 27,000 over the month. Retail trade employment edged down in 2017 (-67,000), after increasing by 203,000 in 2016.
Employment in other major industries, including mining, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, and government, changed little over the month.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.5 hours in December. In manufacturing, the workweek edged down by 0.1 hour to 40.8 hours, while overtime remained at 3.5 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.8 hours.
In December, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 9 cents to $26.63. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 65 cents, or 2.5 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 7 cents to $22.30 in December.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised down from +244,000 to +211,000, and the change for November was revised up from +228,000 to +252,000. With these revisions, employment gains in October and November combined were 9,000 less than previously reported. After revisions, job gains have averaged 204,000 over the last 3 months.”
Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Employment Situation. Dec 2017“, 5 Jan 2018 (08:30) More
US: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Dec 2017
Press Release Extract [us_ism_psi]
- Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®): 55.9%
- Business Activity Index: 57.3%
- New Orders Index: 54.3%
- Employment Index: 56.3%
Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in December for the 96th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.
- The NMI® registered 55.9 percent, which is 1.5 percentage points lower than the November reading of 57.4 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate.
- The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 57.3 percent, 4.1 percentage points lower than the November reading of 61.4 percent, reflecting growth for the 101st consecutive month, at a slower rate in December.
- The New Orders Index registered 54.3 percent, 4.4 percentage points lower than the reading of 58.7 percent in November.
- The Employment Index increased 1 percentage point in December to 56.3 percent from the November reading of 55.3 percent.
- The Prices Index increased by 0.1 percentage point from the November reading of 60.7 percent to 60.8 percent, indicating that prices increased in December for the seventh consecutive month.
According to the NMI®, 14 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. There has been a second consecutive month of pullback in the rate of growth. Overall, the majority of respondents’ comments indicate that they finished the year on a positive note. They also indicate optimism for business conditions and the economic outlook going forward.”
The 14 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in December — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Utilities; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Accommodation & Food Services; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Mining; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.
The 3 industries reporting contraction in December are: Information; Educational Services; and Management of Companies & Support Services.”
Institute for Supply Management, “Report on Business (PMI) – Non-Manufacturing“, 5 Jan 2018 (10:00) More
US: Full Report – Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders. Nov 2017
Press Release Extract [us_durg]
New orders for manufactured goods in November, up five of the last six months, increased $6.5 billion or 1.3 percent to $488.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.4 percent October increase. Shipments, up eleven of the last twelve months, increased $5.7 billion or 1.2 percent to $491.2 billion. This followed a 0.8 percent October increase. Unfilled orders, up three consecutive months, increased $1.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $1,137.1 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent October increase. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.60, down from 6.68 in October. Inventories, up twelve of the last thirteen months, increased $2.5 billion or 0.4 percent to $665.1 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent October increase. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.35, down from 1.36 in October.
New orders for manufactured durable goods in November, up three of the last four months, increased $3.0 billion or 1.3 percent to $241.4 billion, unchanged from the previously published increase. This followed a 0.4 percent October decrease. Transportation equipment, also up three of the last four months, drove the increase, $3.2 billion or 4.1 percent to $80.8 billion. New orders for manufactured nondurable goods increased $3.4 billion or 1.4 percent to $246.7 billion.
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in November, up six of the last seven months, increased $2.3 billion or 0.9 percent to $244.4 billion, down from the previously published 1.0 percent increase. This followed a 0.5 percent October increase. Transportation equipment, up two of the last three months, led the increase, $2.0 billion or 2.6 percent to $81.3 billion. Shipments of manufactured nondurable goods, up seven of the last eight months, increased $3.4 billion or 1.4 percent to $246.7 billion. This followed a 1.1 percent October increase. Petroleum and coal products, up five consecutive months, led the increase, $2.8 billion or 6.0 percent to $49.6 billion.
Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in November, up three consecutive months, increased $1.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $1,137.1 billion, unchanged from the previously published increase. This followed a 0.1 percent October increase. Fabricated metal products, up ten of the last eleven months, led the increase, $0.5 billion or 0.6 percent to $81.3 billion.
Inventories of manufactured durable goods in November, up sixteen of the last seventeen months, increased $0.9 billion or 0.2 percent to $405.3 billion, unchanged from the previously published increase. This followed a 0.2 percent October increase. Primary metals, also up sixteen of the last seventeen months, led the increase, $0.3 billion or 0.8 percent to $34.4 billion. Inventories of manufactured nondurable goods, up six consecutive months, increased $1.6 billion or 0.6 percent to $259.8 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent October increase. Petroleum and coal products, up five consecutive months, led the increase, $1.1 billion or 2.7 percent to $40.0 billion. By stage of fabrication, November materials and supplies increased 0.1 percent in durable goods and increased 1.0 percent in nondurable goods. Work in process increased 0.5 percent in durable goods and increased 1.5 percent in nondurable goods. Finished goods were virtually unchanged in durable goods and decreased 0.1 percent in nondurable goods.”
US Census Bureau, “Full Report – Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders“, 5 Jan 2018 (10:00) More
^ JPY movements against the USD over the past month (mouseover for inverse) Chart: xe.com
Stockmarket: Nikkei 225
^ Nikkei 225 movements over the past week Chart: Google Finance
^ CNY movements against the USD over the past month (mouseover for inverse) Chart: xe.com
^ Shanghai CSI300 movements over the past week Chart: Google Finance