Thursday 22 Feb 2018


Shows:  watch Nightly Business Report. watch PBS NewsHour. watch Bloomberg Technology.
CNBC:   watch St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks on monetary policy.
Indices: chart Market Today. Market (52 weeks). Portfolio (52 weeks).
FX:        chart USD Today. USD Year. AUD Today. AUD Year.


In Portfolioticker today

read_this Hey Jarvis, how did we go today?

  • Today at the stock market Opinion
  • The portfolio today Opinion
  • News
  • flag_japan Japan Update
  • flag_china China Update
  • Today at the stock market

    bull/bearThe Dow and S&P 500 advanced on Thursday to halt a two-session losing skid, buoyed by gains in industrial and energy shares as U.S. Treasury yields eased, while the Nasdaq lost ground for a third straight session.

    • The S&P 500 index rose 2.63 points, or 0.10%, to 2,703.96
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 164.7 points, or 0.66%, to 24,962.48
    • The Nasdaq Composite index dropped 8.14 points, or 0.11%, to 7,210.09
    • Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.09-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.41-to-1 ratio favored decliners.
    • The S&P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and nine new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 58 new highs and 47 new lows.
    • Volume on U.S. exchanges was 6.81 billion shares, compared to the 8.44 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

    Major indexes advanced early as worries about a faster pace of interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve were eased by comments by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who expressed concerns that a “bunch of hikes” could turn Fed policy restrictive. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields retreated from the more than 4-year highs hit on Wednesday. Those gains faded, however, and major indexes finished well off session highs as investors exercised caution in what is likely to be a rising interest rate environment.

    “The rally on Bullard was a little overzealous,” said Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading in Greenwich, Connecticut. “I wouldn’t be out there aggressively buying stocks because until the interest rate picture clarifies, and it probably will do so at a higher level, it is just going to create problems for equities,” he said.

    The concerns over rising interest rates have dogged Wall Street of late, and stocks stumbled on Wednesday after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s Jan 2018 meeting showed the central bank’s rate-setting committee grew more confident in the need to keep raising rates. Market participants are still largely expecting the Fed to raise rates 3 times this year, beginning with its next meeting in Mar 2018.

    Despite the recent climb in rates, many analysts expect the stock market to be able to absorb the rise as long as economic data remain supportive and the pace of the increase is modest.

    Industrial shares rosed 0.59%, led by a 3.04% gain in Quanta Services Inc after its quarterly results and a 3.34% rise in United Technologies Corp after the aero parts maker said it is exploring a breakup of its business portfolio.

    Energy stocks, up 1.08%, also helped support gains, as oil prices advanced on a surprise draw in U.S. crude inventories.Reuters

    Market indices

    Market indices
    ^ Market indices today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: Google Finance

    Index Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 17 YTD
    S&P 500 SPX (INX) 2,703.96 +0.09% 2,673.61 +1.13%
    DJIA INDU 24,962.48 +0.66% 24,719.22 +0.98%
    NASDAQ IXIC 7,210.09 -0.12% 6,903.39 +4.44%

    Portfolio Indices

    USD and AUD denominated indices over the past 52 weeks (Chart: Bunting)
    ^ USD and AUD denominated indices over the past 52 weeks Chart: Bunting

    Index values

    Index Currency Today Change 31 Dec 17 YTD
    USD-denominated Index USD 3.236 +0.69% 3.068 +5.51%
    Valuation Rate USD/AUD 0.78935 +0.46% 0.78528 +0.51%
    AUD-denominated Index AUD 4.103 +0.23% 3.909 +4.97%

    Portfolio stock prices

    :-) Amazon keeps breaking records every day, closing at $1,485.34 up 0.16% on yesterday’s record $1,482.92.
    :-( In other stocks the market seems to be having difficulty determining a direction and rationale. Taking Apple as an example …
    Lloyd Notes:  The market seems to be having difficulty determining a direction and rationale.  In the meantime it just hops around ... taking Apple as an example

    Stock Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 17 YTD
    Alphabet A GOOGL $1,109.90 -0.35% $1,053.00 +5.40%
    Alphabet C GOOG $1,106.63 -0.43% $1,045.65 +5.83%
    Apple AAPL $172.85 +1.04% $169.23 +2.13%
    Amazon AMZN $1,485.34 +0.16% $1,169.54 +27.00%
    Ebay EBAY $42.83 -0.68% $37.76 +13.42%
    Facebook FB $178.99 +0.60% $176.46 +1.43%
    PayPal PYPL $77.70 +1.55% $73.61 +5.55%
    Twitter TWTR $32.11 -3.81% $24.01 +33.73%
    Visa V $120.38 -0.05% $114.02 +5.57%
    VMware VMW $125.23 +1.86% $125.32 -0.08%

    FX: USD/AUD

    USD

    DXY movements
    ^ Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (DXY) movements today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: Bloomberg

    The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (DXY) fell 0.4%, the first retreat in a week.
    The EUR rose 0.3% to USD 1.2325, the largest advance in a week.
    Japan’s JPY rose 1% to 106.701 per USD, the first advance in a week and the largest climb in more than 2 weeks.
    The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index rose 0.2%.

    The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell 3 basis points to 2.92%.
    The 2-year yield fell one basis point to 2.25%.
    Germany’s 10-year yield decreased 2 basis points to 0.706%.
    Bloomberg

    AUD

    AUD movements
    ^ AUD movements against the USD today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: xe.com

    Oil and Gas Futures

    Futures prices

    Prices are as at 15:49 ET

    • NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI): $62.61/barrel +1.51%% Chart
    • ICE (London) Brent North Sea Crude: $66.21/barrel +1.21%% Chart
    • NYMEX Natural gas futures: $2.62/MMBTU -1.62%% Chart

    flag_australia AU: Average Weekly Earnings. Nov 2017

    Press Release Extract [au_awe]

    Trend Estimates

    In the twelve months to November 2017, Full-Time Adult Average Weekly Ordinary Time Earnings increased by 2.3% to $1,567.90.
    The Full-Time Adult Average Weekly Total Earnings in November 2017 was $1,628.10, a rise of 2.2% from the same time last year.

    Private and Public Sector Earnings

    In November 2017, the Full-Time Adult Average Weekly Ordinary Time Earnings was $1,721.50 in the Public sector. Private sector Full-Time Adult Average Weekly Ordinary Time Earnings was $1,529.50.

    Looking at Full-Time Adult Average Weekly Ordinary Time Earnings for November 2017 in more detail:

    • the Full-Time Adult Male Average Weekly Ordinary Time Earnings were $1,826.90 in the Public sector, and $1,634.30 in the Private sector; and
    • the Full-Time Adult Female Average Weekly Ordinary Time Earnings were $1,625.50 in the Public sector, and $1,322.50 in the Private sector.

    Average Weekly Cash Earnings

    In November 2017, on average, full-time adult employees in Australia salary sacrificed $45.70 (Full-time adult ordinary time cash earnings $1,615.30 minus Full-time adult ordinary time earnings $1,569.60). This is a decrease of $5.20 from May 2017.

    Industry Earnings

    In November 2017, employees in the Mining industry had the highest Full-Time Adult Average Weekly Ordinary Time Earnings in Australia at $2,580.70. The industry with the lowest level of Full-Time Adult Average Weekly Ordinary Time Earnings was the Accommodation and food services industry ($1,112.90).

    State and Territory Earnings

    In November 2017, Full-Time Adult Average Weekly Ordinary Time Earnings was highest for the Australian Capital Territory and Western Australia, $1,803.10, and $1,742.80 respectively.

    Australian Bureau of Statistics, “6302.0 Average Weekly Earnings. Nov 2017“, 21 Feb 2018 More

    flag_usa US: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

    Press Release Extract [ser_4]

    In the week ending February 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 1,000 from 230,000 to 229,000. The 4-week moving average was 226,000, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 250 from 228,500 to 228,250.

    Claims taking procedures in Puerto Rico and in the Virgin Islands have still not returned to normal.

    us_ui_20180222

    The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.3 percent for the week ending February 10, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending February 10 was 1,875,000, a decrease of 73,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 6,000 from 1,942,000 to 1,948,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,926,500, a decrease of 16,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,500 from 1,941,250 to 1,942,750.

    us_ue_20180222

    Unadjusted Data

    The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 213,328 in the week ending February 17, a decrease of 19,477 (or -8.4 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 11,927 (or -5.1 percent) from the previous week. There were 239,322 initial claims in the comparable week in 2017.

    The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.6 percent during the week ending February 10, unchanged from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 2,261,742, a decrease of 61,813 (or -2.7 percent) from the preceding week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 25,320 (or 1.1 percent) from the previous week. A year earlier the rate was 1.8 percent and the volume was 2,489,682.

    The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending February 3 was 2,360,760, an increase of 13,383 from the previous week. There were 2,508,785 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2017.

    Extended benefits were available in Alaska and the Virgin Islands during the week ending February 3.

    Initial claims for UI benefits filed by former Federal civilian employees totaled 709 in the week ending February 10, a decrease of 213 from the prior week. There were 649 initial claims filed by newly discharged veterans, a decrease of 91 from the preceding week.

    There were 13,683 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending February 3, an increase of 1,408 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 8,453, a decrease of 373 from the prior week.

    The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending February 3 were in the Virgin Islands (11.7), Alaska (4.2), Puerto Rico (3.6), Connecticut (3.0), New Jersey (3.0), Montana (2.8), Pennsylvania (2.7), Rhode Island (2.7), Massachusetts (2.6), California (2.4), and Illinois (2.4).

    The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending February 10 were in Michigan (+565), Tennessee (+291), Kansas (+204), Minnesota (+190), and New Jersey (+186), while the largest decreases were in California (-2,533), Pennsylvania (-1,420), Puerto Rico (-1,366), New York (-1,043), and South Carolina (-569).

    Employment and Training Administration, “Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report“, 22 Feb 2018 (08:30) More

    flag_japan Japan update

    Currency: USD/JPY

    JPY movements
    ^ JPY movements against the USD over the past month (mouseover for inverse) Chart: xe.com

    Stockmarket: Nikkei 225

    n225 movements
    ^ Nikkei 225 movements over the past week Chart: Google Finance

    flag_china China update

    Currency: USD/CNY

    CNY movements
    ^ CNY movements against the USD over the past month (mouseover for inverse) Chart: xe.com

    Stockmarket: CSI300

    CSI300 movements
    ^ Shanghai CSI300 movements over the past week Chart: Google Finance