Mon 26 Mar 2018


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In Portfolioticker today

read_this Hey Jarvis, how did we go today?

Today at the stock market

bull/bearWall Street’s three major indexes jumped to their greatest one-day gain in two-and-a-half years on Monday, led by the tech sector, as trade war fears eased on reports that the United States and China were willing to renegotiate tariffs and trade imbalances.

  • The S&P 500 index rose 70.29 points, or 2.72%, to 2,658.55
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 669.4 points, or 2.84%, to 24,202.60
  • The Nasdaq Composite index rose 227.88 points, or 3.26%, to 7,220.54.
  • The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), the most widely followed barometer of expected near-term volatility for the S&P 500, finished down 3.84 points at 21.03.
  • Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 3.04-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.27-to-1 ratio favored advancers.

The three major U.S. indexes saw their best percentage gains since 26 Aug 2015.

All 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 closed in positive territory, led by technology and finance indexes, up 4.0% and 3.2%, respectively. The rally, fuelled by technology stocks, came on the heels of the indexes’ worst weekly performance since Jan 2016, the S&P 500′s gain making up for less than half of the prior week’s near 6% loss.

“We saw a really good rally because of potential talks with China,” said Dennis Dick, Head of Markets Structure, Proprietary Trader at Bright Trading LLC in Las Vegas. “People are taking advantage of the huge dip last week. I don’t think you’re out of the woods yet. There’s political uncertainty,” Dick added.

Last week’s drop was fueled in part by tensions surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s move to levy tariffs on up to $60 billion of Chinese imports, in addition to those imposed on solar panels, steel and aluminum. But tensions were calmed as Chinese Premier Li Keqiang repeated pledges to maintain trade negotiations and ease access to American businesses.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said on Sunday he believed Washington could reach agreement with China on some issues but tariffs would not be put on hold “unless we have an acceptable agreement that the president signs off on.”

“It’s clearly the easing of trade tensions. The comments by Steve Mnuchin late yesterday gave room for negotiation with China,” said Oliver Pursche, Chief Market Strategist at Bruderman Asset Management in New York.

But China did call for unity among World Trade Organization (WTO) members to prevent the United States from “wrecking” the WTO, and urged opposition to Trump’s tariffs targeting China’s alleged intellectual property theft.

The tech sector saw its biggest daily percentage gain since Aug 2015 and financials had their best day since Nov 2016.

Microsoft pulled the indexes higher, rising 7.6%. Morgan Stanley upped its price target on the tech company’s stock, saying its market value could hit $1 trillion on improved margins and growth in cloud computing.

Intel rose 6.3% after brokerage Raymond James upgraded the technology to “market perform”.

Facebook rose 0.4% following several days of declines as the U.S. Federal Trade Commission announced it was investigating how the company allowed data of 50 million users to get into the hands of Cambridge Analytica.Reuters

Chipmakers and banks led gains as the S&P 500 Index posted its biggest one-day jump since Aug 2015, while 20 stocks climbed for every one that fell. The advance erased Friday’s drop, though the gauge still had a ways to go to make up all of last week’s losses. Facebook Inc. was a noticeable underperformer, ending just slightly higher after the Federal Trade Commission said it has an open, non-public probe into the company’s privacy practices.

The optimism toward U.S. stocks emerged after the limits of the Trump administration’s willingness to embrace protectionism came into view over the weekend. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told Fox News that he’s “cautiously hopeful” that China will reach a deal to avoid tariffs on $50 billion of U.S. exports, while European leaders demanded a permanent exclusion at the threat of retaliation and a deal was struck with South Korea.

The Trump administration tends “to negotiate to a more reasonable position, or more toward the center, as time goes on,” Maggie Gage, the head of Washington research at Credit Suisse Securities, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “We’re cautiously optimistic that that will apply here too with the Chinese tariffs.”

Microsoft Corp.’s 7.6% surge was the biggest contributor to the S&P 500’s advance, followed by the 4.8% gain in Apple Inc. Gains in financial shares were led by Comerica Inc. and Metlife Inc.Bloomberg

Market indices

Market indices
^ S&P500 Index today (mouseover for 12 month view) [Chart: Google Finance]

Index Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 17 YTD
S&P 500 SPX (INX) 2,658.55 +2.71% 2,673.61 -0.57%
DJIA INDU 24,202.60 +2.84% 24,719.22 -2.09%
NASDAQ IXIC 7,220.54 +3.25% 6,903.39 +4.59%

Portfolio Indices

USD and AUD denominated indices over the past 52 weeks (Chart: Bunting)
^ USD and AUD denominated indices over the past 52 weeks Chart: Bunting

Index values

Index Currency Today Change 31 Dec 17 YTD
USD-denominated Index USD 3.221 +4.07% 3.068 +5.00%
Valuation Rate USD/AUD 0.77953 +0.50% 0.78528 -0.74%
AUD-denominated Index AUD 4.134 +3.55% 3.909 +5.76%

Portfolio stock prices

Stock Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 17 YTD
Alphabet A GOOGL $1,054.09 +2.68% $1,053.00 +0.10%
Alphabet C GOOG $1,053.21 +3.09% $1,045.65 +0.72%
Apple AAPL $172.77 +4.74% $169.23 +2.09%
Amazon AMZN $1,555.86 +4.03% $1,169.54 +33.03%
Ebay EBAY $41.01 +3.27% $37.76 +8.60%
Facebook FB $160.06 +0.42% $176.46 -9.30%
PayPal PYPL $78.95 +3.28% $73.61 +7.25%
Twitter TWTR $31.91 +2.83% $24.01 +32.90%
Visa V $120.64 +3.11% $114.02 +5.80%
VMware VMW $126.03 +3.25% $125.32 +0.56%

FX: USD/AUD

USD

DXY movements
^ Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (DXY) movements today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: Bloomberg

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (DXY) fell 0.4% to the lowest in 5 weeks.
The EUR rose 0.8 percent to USD 1.2456.
Britain’s GBP rose 0.7% to USD 1.4232, the strongest since 1 Feb 2018.
Japan’s JPY fell 0.7% to 105.46 per USD.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed 4 basis points to 2.85%.
Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 0.52%.
Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 1.44%.
Bloomberg

AUD

AUD movements
^ AUD movements against the USD today (mouseover for 12 month view) Chart: xe.com

Oil and Gas Futures

Futures prices

Prices are as at 15:47 EDT

  • NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI): $65.50/barrel -0.58% Chart
  • ICE (London) Brent North Sea Crude: $70.04/barrel -0.58% Chart
  • NYMEX Natural gas futures: $2.63/MMBTU +1.54% Chart

flag_europe EU: International Trade in Goods. 2017

Press Release Extract [eu_trade]

In 2017, the United States (€631 billion, or 16.9% of total EU trade in goods) and China (€573 bn, or 15.3%) continued to be the two main goods trading partners of the European Union (EU), well ahead of Switzerland (€261 bn, or 7.0%), Russia (€231 bn, or 6.2%), Turkey (€154 bn, or 4.1%) and Japan (€129 bn, or 3.5%).

eu_trade1_20180326

However, the trends observed over time differ for these top trading partners of the EU. After recording a significant and almost continuous fall until 2011, the share of the United States in EU total trade in goods had increased to nearly 18% in 2015 and 2016, before decreasing again slightly in 2017. The share of China has almost tripled since 2000, rising from 5.5% to 15.3% in 2017. The share of Russia in total EU trade had been decreasing since 2012 from nearly 10% to around 6% in 2016, and slightly picked up in 2017. The share of trade with Japan has fallen by more than a half since 2000 – from 7.5% in 2000 to 3.5% in 2017. As for Switzerland and Turkey, their respective shares in trade remained relatively unchanged over the entire period.

In 2017, machinery and transport equipment, other manufactured goods and chemicals represented the main categories of product traded by the EU.

Germany, main export destination for a majority of Member States

In almost all EU Member States, the main partner for exports of goods in 2017 was another member of the European Union, except for Germany, Ireland, and the United Kingdom (the United States was the main destination of exports) as well as Cyprus (Libya) and Lithuania (Russia).

In some Member States, over a quarter of exports went to one single partner. This partner was Germany for the Czech Republic (33% of exports of goods), Austria (29%), Hungary (28%), Poland (27%) and Luxembourg (26%). 27% of exports of Ireland went to the United States and 25% of exports of Portugal went to Spain. Overall, Germany was the main destination of goods exports for 17 Member States and among the top three in 22 Member States.

For extra-EU trade, that is trade with non-EU countries, the 3 main destinations of EU exports in 2017 were the United States (20% of all extra-EU exports), China (11%) and Switzerland (8%).

Intra-EU exports prevail in all Member States apart from Cyprus and the United Kingdom

In 2017, the 28 EU Member States exported a total of €5 226 bn of goods, of which €3 347 bn (or 64%) were destined for another Member State of the EU (intra-EU trade).

With about three-quarters or more of goods exported to other EU Member States, Slovakia (86% intra-EU in total exports), Luxembourg and the Czech Republic (both 84%), Hungary (81%), Poland (80%), Romania and Slovenia (both 76%) and the Netherlands (75%) recorded in 2017 the highest shares of intra-EU exports. At the opposite end of the scale, Cyprus (37%) and the United Kingdom (48%) were the only Member States that exported more goods to non-EU countries than within the EU in 2017.

Germany, also main source of imports for more than half of EU Member States

As for exports, the main partner for imports of goods in 2017 was another member of the European Union in all Member States except Lithuania, for which Russia was the main country of origin of goods imported, and the Netherlands (China).

In seven Member States, more than 25% of imports of goods came from a single partner country in 2017: Austria (42% of imports of goods originated from Germany), Luxembourg (32% from Belgium), Portugal (32% from Spain), the Czech Republic (30% from Germany), Ireland (29% from the United Kingdom), Poland (28% from Germany) and Hungary (26% from Germany). Overall, Germany was among the top three countries of origin of goods imported in all EU Member States except Ireland and Cyprus.

For extra-EU trade, the main country of origin of goods imported into the EU in 2017 remained China (20% of all extra-EU imports), followed by the United States (14%) and Russia (8%).

Intra-EU imports prevail in almost all Member States

In 2017, the 28 EU Member States imported a total of €5 131 bn of goods, of which €3 276 bn (or 64%) came from another EU Member State (intra-EU trade).

Over three-quarters of total imports of goods originated from another EU Member State in Luxembourg (83%), Estonia (81%), Slovakia (80%), Latvia (79%), the Czech Republic and Croatia (both 78%), Austria (77%), Portugal, Hungary and Romania (all 76%). In contrast, the Netherlands (46%) was the only Member State where less than half of the imports came from within the EU. This is largely due to the so-called ‘Rotterdam effect’.

Machinery & transport equipment dominated both EU exports and imports

In 2017, machinery and transport equipment continued to play a major role in EU trade in goods with the rest of the world, accounting for 42% of total extra-EU exports and 32% of imports. Other manufactured goods (23% of extra- EU exports and 26% of extra-EU imports) as well as chemicals (18% of extra-EU exports and 10% of extra-EU imports) also played a significant role in EU trade in goods in 2017. Mineral fuels made up a minor share of extra- EU exports (5%), but accounted for 18% of all imports.

Eurostat, “International trade in goods in 2017: A third of EU trade is with the United States and
China, At Member State level, trade within the EU largely prevails.
“, 26 Mar 2018 More

flag_japan Japan update

Currency: USD/JPY

JPY movements
^ JPY movements against the USD over the past month (mouseover for inverse) Chart: xe.com

Stockmarket: Nikkei 225

n225 movements
^ Nikkei 225 movements over the past week [Chart: Google Finance]

flag_china China update

Currency: USD/CNY

CNY movements
^ CNY movements against the USD over the past month (mouseover for inverse) Chart: xe.com

Stockmarket: CSI300

CSI300 movements
^ CSI 300 movements over the past week [Chart: Google Finance]