Fri 22 May 2015

In Portfolioticker today

Today at the stock market Opinion

bearU.S. stocks ended weaker on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen indicated that the central bank was poised to raise interest rates this year, in line with Wall Street’s expectations.

Lackadaisical trading volume during the session ended a week of slow activity that has left many investors unconvinced that recent record-high levels are likely to last. Investors have enjoyed an extended period of low volatility and steady gains, but with the Fed on track to raise rates this year and major indexes near records, the market could get a bit choppier in coming weeks.Reuters

Market indices

Index Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 14 YTD
S&P 500 SPX (INX) 2,126.06 -0.22% 2,058.9 +3.26%
DJIA INDU 18,232.02 -0.29% 17,823.05 +2.29%
NASDAQ IXIC 5,089.36 -0.03% 4,736.05 +7.46%

The shape of the day

Market indices today (Chart: Yahoo Finance)

Market indices today (Chart: Yahoo Finance)

Nightly Business Report: 22 May 2015 Watch
Comment

I think what Janet Yellen and all of the Fed officials have been doing is very carefully choreographing their move. I think this is probably the most telegraphed Fed liftoff in some time. They’re concerned about the markets’ reaction.
Bruce Zaro, Chief Technical Strategist, Bolton Global Asset Management Reuters

The portfolio today Opinion

Index values

:-) Outperformed Currency Today Change 31 Dec 14 YTD
Portfolio Index USD 2.099 +0.56% 1.741 +20.55%
Valuation Rate USD/AUD 0.78671 -0.93% 0.82153 -4.24%
Portfolio Index AUD 2.668 +1.50% 2.119 +25.89%

Stock price movements

The shape of the portfolio today (Chart: Yahoo Finance)

The shape of the portfolio today (Chart: Yahoo Finance)

Portfolio stocks and market indices: price changes today (%)

Portfolio stocks and market indices: price changes today (%)

Portfolio stock prices

Stock Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 14 YTD
Apple AAPL $132.54 +0.88% $110.38 +20.07%
Amazon AMZN $427.63 -0.93% $310.35 +37.78%
Ebay EBAY $59.72 -0.03% $56.12 +6.41%
Facebook FB $80.54 +0.07% $78.02 +3.22%
Google A GOOGL $554.52 -0.41% $530.66 +4.49%
Google C GOOG $540.11 -0.44% $526.40 +2.60%
Linkedin LNKD $196.23 -0.41% $229.71 -14.58%
Twitter TWTR $36.60 -0.22% $35.87 +2.03%
Visa V $69.62 +0.36% $65.55 +6.20%
VMware VMW $87.72 +0.65% $82.52 +6.3%

52-week performance Opinion

USD and AUD denominated indices over the last 52 weeks (Chart: Bunting)

USD and AUD denominated indices over the last 52 weeks (Chart: Bunting)

FX: USD/AUD

AUD movements against the USD today (Chart: xe.com)

AUD movements against the USD today (Chart: xe.com)

Oil and Gas Futures

Futures prices

  • NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI) (Jul 2015): $59.86/barrel Chart
  • ICE (London) Brent North Sea Crude (Jul 2015) $65.56/barrel Chart
  • NYMEX Natural gas futures (Jun 2015): $2.89/MMBTU Chart

USA: Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Apr 2015

The cost of living excluding food and fuel rose at a faster pace than expected in April, indicating inflation is inching toward the Federal Reserve’s goal. The core consumer-price index climbed 0.3 percent, the biggest gain since January 2013, reflecting broad-based increases… The median forecast of 84 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 0.2 percent advance. Prices including food and fuel rose 0.1 percent.Bloomberg

Extract

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index declined 0.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Percent change in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), sa, Apr. 2014 - Apr. 2015

Percent change in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), sa, Apr. 2014 – Apr. 2015

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in April and led to the slight increase in the seasonally adjusted all items index. The index for shelter rose, as did the indexes for medical care, household furnishings and operations, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles. In contrast, the indexes for apparel and airline fares declined in April.

The energy index declined in April, while the food index was unchanged. The indexes for gasoline, natural gas, and fuel oil all declined, while the electricity index was unchanged. The food at home index declined for the second month in a row, offsetting an increase in the index for food away from home. Major grocery store food group indexes were mixed.

The all items index declined 0.2 percent for the 12 months ending April. This represented a slightly larger decrease than the 0.1-percent decline for the 12 months ending March. The decline was driven by the energy index, which fell 19.4 percent over the last 12 months, with all the major components declining except electricity. The food index rose 2.0 percent over the last year, and the index for all items less food and energy rose 1.8 percent.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Apr 2015“, 22 May 2015 (08:30) More

flag_usa USA: Real Earnings – Apr 2015

Extract

Real average hourly earnings for all employees were unchanged from March to April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.1-percent increase in average hourly earnings being offset by a 0.1-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

Real average weekly earnings were unchanged over the month due to no change in both real average hourly earnings and the average workweek.

Percentage change in real average hourly earnings for all employees, sa, Apr 2014 – Apr 2015

Percentage change in real average hourly earnings for all employees, sa, Apr 2014 – Apr 2015

Over-the-month percentage change in real average hourly earnings for all employees, seasonally adjusted, April 2014 – April 2015

Bureau of Labor Statistics, “USA: Real Earnings – Apr 2015“, 22 May 2015 (08:30) More

flag_greece Greece update << Previous Next >>

State of play

In last night’s meeting with Alexis Tsipras, Angela Merkel and François Hollande said the any deal or disbursement requires the agreement of the International Monetary Fund. Merkel repeated that at Riga today: “The deal must be concluded with the three institutions. There is very, very intensive work to be done.FT

Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of International Monetary Fund commented: “I know there is a lot of work to be done. Parties are now working, receiving proposals, working in cooperation and we will continue to do so as fast as we can. It has to be a comprehensive approach, not a quick and dirty job.

A senior Brussels Group official said the Greeks “have been listening to too many people who think that there may be some partial agreement. There will be no such thing. And there will be no agreement without IMF. And the IMF is super tough.FT

Germany is ‘ready to take this brinkmanship very far,’ with Wolfgang Schäuble in the role of ‘attack dog’, Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (IIE) in Washington, said by phone. ‘The risks of contagion to other euro-area countries from a deterioration in Greece is very low.Bloomberg

No report yet from the brief meeting between Alexis Tsipras and Jean-Claude Juncker. Otherwise, the message to Tsipras is keep working on getting those reforms to the Institutions as soon as possible.

Schäuble considered a parallel currency for Greece (or did he?)

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble raised the possibility that Greece may need a parallel currency alongside the euro if the country’s talks with creditors fail, people familiar with his views said.Bloomberg

But these days, when anyone says anything you just have to wait a few hours for the denial …

French Finance Minister Michel Sapin commented that there is no Plan B for Greece and no plan for a parallel currency.

‘Greece’s economy isn’t competitive on the basis of the euro so it would be better for the Greeks to introduce a parallel currency,’ Anton Börner, head of the German BGA, the Federation of German Wholesale, Foreign Trade and Services, said in an interview. ‘It would be a way to avoid a chaotic collapse.’Bloomberg

Timetable

Greek debt repayment schedule to end of Aug 2015 (Chart: Die Welt)

Greek debt repayment schedule to end of Aug 2015 (Chart: Die Welt)

Schedule      Event / activity
30 May 2015 warning Greece payment of salaries and pensions: around EUR2.5 billion Reuters
3 Jun 2015 Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt.
5 Jun 2015 warning Greece repayment to International Monetary Fund (IMF) for 240 million Special Drawing Rights (SDR): EUR 305 million.
12 Jun 2015 warning Greece repayment to International Monetary Fund (IMF) for 270 million Special Drawing Rights (SDR): EUR 343 million. This is a loan from the IMF’s first bailout loan in 2010.
12 Jun 2015 Greece must roll over EUR 3.6 billion of Treasury bills. This is made up of EUR 1.6 billion short term Treasury bills (2.70%) and another EUR 2 billion in short-term Treasury bills (2.15%).
16 Jun 2015 warning Greece repayment to International Monetary Fund (IMF) for 451 million Special Drawing Rights (SDR): EUR 581 million. This is a loan from the IMF’s first bailout loan in 2010.
16 Jun 2015 warning Greece repayment to International Monetary Fund (IMF): EUR 572 million. This is a loan from the IMF’s first bailout loan in 2010.
17 Jun 2015 warning Governing Council of the ECB: non-monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt.
18 Jun 2015 warning Eurogroup meeting (Luxembourg). This is the last meeting of the Eurogroup before the financial support agreement for Greece ends on 30 Jun 2015.
18 Jun 2015 warning General Council meeting of the ECB in Frankfurt.
19 Jun 2015 warning Greece repayment to International Monetary Fund (IMF) for 270 million Special Drawing Rights (SDR): EUR 343 million. This is a loan from the IMF’s first bailout loan in 2010.
19 Jun 2015 Greece must roll over EUR 1.6 billion of Treasury bills (2.70%).
25-26 Jun 2015 warning European Council meeting (Brussels).
30 Jun 2015 warning Master Financial Assistance Facility Agreement (MFFA) expires EFSF Agreement.

Unless there is an extension or a new agreement with the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), “this means the end of access to the funds left over from the euro zone bailout. From then on, to get any money from the euro zone, Greece would have to negotiate a new bailout agreement from scratchReuters This would take time, and in the meantime Greece would be at high(er) risk of default.

Wolfgang Schäuble (15 Apr 2015): “The (financial support program) program has been extended twice. It now runs through June 30. If Greece wants to avail itself of the remaining funds in this program the solution must be found, by June 30 … the deadline of the program.

30 Jun 2015 warning Greece payment of salaries and pensions: around EUR2.5 billion?
1 Jul 2015 warning Governing Council of the ECB: non-monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt.
10 Jul 2015 Greece must roll over EUR 2 billion of 26-week Treasury bills (2.30%).
13 Jul 2015 warning Greece repayment to International Monetary Fund (IMF) for 360 million Special Drawing Rights (SDR): EUR 500 million. This is a loan from the IMF’s first bailout loan in 2010.
14 Jul 2015 Greece of maturing government bonds: EUR 90 million.
16 Jul 2015 Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt.
19 Jul 2015 warning Government bond interest due: EUR 225 million.
19 Jul 2015 warning Government bond interest due: EUR 381 million.
20 Jul 2015 warning Greek EUR 3.5 billion bond held by the ECB matures. This is made up of EUR 2.096 billion of bonds held by ECB exempted from the 2012 default (3.70%), EUR 1.361 billion bonds held by national central banks exempted from the 2012 default (3.70%) and EUR 25 million bonds held by the European Investment Bank exempted from the 2012 default (3.70%). On 4 Feb 2015 Greece said it had enough money to last up to this point (but not including these payments). FT
30 Jul 2015 warning Greece payment of salaries and pensions: around EUR2.5 billion?
5 Aug 2015 Governing Council of the ECB: non-monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt.
7 Aug 2015 Greece must roll over EUR 1 billion of 26-week Treasury bills (2.75%).
20 Aug 2015 warning Greek EUR 3.88 billion bond held by the ECB matures. This is made up of EUR 3.020 billion bonds held by ECB exempted from the 2012 default (6.10%) and EUR 0.168 billion bonds held by national central banks exempted from the 2012 default (6.10%).

Note: Financial obligation details are sourced from:

  • Greek Public Debt Management Agency website
  • WSJ website: “Greece’s Debt Due: What Greece Owes When” WSJ