Thu 2 Jul 2015

In Portfolioticker today

Today at the stock market Opinion

bull/bearU.S. stocks ended slightly lower on Thursday after the International Monetary Fund warned that Greece faces a financial hole ahead of its Sunday referendum, and as muted jobs data dampened the U.S. economic outlook.Reuters

Market indices

Index Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 14 YTD
S&P 500 SPX (INX) 2,076.78 -0.03% 2,058.90 +0.87%
DJIA INDU 17,730.11 -0.16% 17,823.05 -0.52%
NASDAQ IXIC 5,009.21 -0.08% 4,736.05 +5.77%

The shape of the day

Market indices today (Chart: Yahoo Finance)

Market indices today (Chart: Yahoo Finance)

Nightly Business Report: 2 Jul 2015 Watch

The portfolio today Opinion

Index values

:-) Outperformed Currency Today Change 31 Dec 14 YTD
Portfolio Index USD 2.034 +0.02% 1.741 +16.82%
Valuation Rate USD/AUD 0.76825 -0.24% 0.82153 -6.49%
Portfolio Index AUD 2.647 +0.26% 2.119 +24.92%

Stock price movements

The shape of the portfolio today (Chart: Yahoo Finance)

The shape of the portfolio today (Chart: Yahoo Finance)

Portfolio stocks and market indices: price changes today (%) (Chart: Bunting)

Portfolio stocks and market indices: price changes today (%) (Chart: Bunting)

Portfolio stock prices

Stock Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 14 YTD
Apple AAPL $126.44 -0.13% $110.38 +14.54%
Amazon AMZN $437.71 +0.07% $310.35 +41.03%
Ebay EBAY $61.85 +2.36% $56.12 +10.21%
Facebook FB $87.29 +0.43% $78.02 +11.88%
Google A GOOGL $547.34 +0.74% $530.66 +3.14%
Google C GOOG $523.40 +0.30% $526.40 -0.57%
Linkedin LNKD $207.76 -0.10% $229.71 -9.56%
Twitter TWTR $35.71 +0.88% $35.87 -0.45%
Visa V $68.24 +0.57% $65.55 +4.10%
VMware VMW $85.20 +0.40% $82.52 +3.24%

52-week performance Opinion

USD and AUD denominated indices over the last 52 weeks (Chart: Bunting)

USD and AUD denominated indices over the last 52 weeks (Chart: Bunting)

FX: USD/AUD

Australia’s persistent trade deficit dropped the AUD today, but then it recovered most of that fall.

AUD movements against the USD today (Chart: xe.com)

AUD movements against the USD today (Chart: xe.com)

Oil and Gas Futures

Futures prices

  • NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI): $56.58/barrel Chart
  • ICE (London) Brent North Sea Crude: $61.83/barrel Chart
  • NYMEX Natural gas futures: $2.83/MMBTU Chart

flag_australia Australia: International Trade in Goods & Services – May 2015 Opinion

Extract

BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,611m in May 2015, an increase of $318m (14%) on the deficit in April 2015.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,751m in May 2015, a decrease of $1,385m (33%) on the deficit in April 2015.

Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Apr – May 15
EXPORTS of goods and services (Credits)
Trend estimates $26,596m $26,215m $25,848m -1.40%
Seasonally adjusted $26,955m $25,322m $25,528m +0.81%
IMPORTS of goods and services (Debits)
Trend estimates $28,517m $28,508m $28,459m -0.17%
Seasonally adjusted $28,491m $29,458m $28,279m -4.00%
BALANCE on goods and services
Trend estimates -$1,921m -$2,293m -$2,611m -13.87%
Seasonally adjusted -$1,537m -4,136m -$2,751m -33.00%

Australian Bureau of Statistics, “5368.0 – International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, May 2015“, 2 Jul 2015 More

flag_usa USA: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – Week to 27 Jun 2015

Extract

In the week ending June 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 281,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 271,000. The 4-week moving average was 274,750, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 273,750.

ui_20150702

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.7 percent for the week ending June 20, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 20 was 2,264,000, an increase of 15,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 2,000 from 2,247,000 to 2,249,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,252,500, an increase of 15,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 2,237,000 to 2,237,500.

Employment and Training Administration, “Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – Week to 27 Jun 2015″, 2 Jul 2015 (08:30) More

flag_usa USA: Jobs Report – Jun 2015 Opinion

Nonfarm payrolls increased 223,000 last month, below the 230,000 that economists polled by Reuters had expected.Reuters

Extract

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in June, and the unemployment rate declined to 5.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, financial activities, and in transportation and warehousing.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 5.3 percent in June, and the number of
unemployed persons declined by 375,000 to 8.3 million.

Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, June 2013 – June 2015

Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, June 2013 – June 2015

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) declined by 381,000 to 2.1 million in June. These individuals accounted for 25.8 percent of the unemployed. Over the past 12 months, the number of long-term unemployed has declined by 955,000.

The civilian labor force declined by 432,000 in June, following an increase of similar magnitude in May. The labor force participation rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 62.6 percent in June. The employment-population ratio, at 59.3 percent, was essentially unchanged in June and has shown little movement thus far this year.

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 223,000 in June, compared with an average monthly gain of 250,000 over the prior 12 months. In June, job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, financial activities, and in transportation and warehousing.

Nonfarm payroll employment over-the-month change, seasonally adjusted

Nonfarm payroll employment over-the-month change, seasonally adjusted

In June, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls were unchanged at $24.95. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.0 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees edged up by 2 cents to $20.99 in June.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, “The Employment Situation – Jun 2015″, 2 Jul 2015 (08:30) More

flag_greece Greece update << Prev

State of Play

EC’s chief spokesman Margaritis Schinas has confirmed that talks with Athens are now on ice until Greece has voted on its future on Sunday.

However Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said on ANT1 television channel today that he expects a deal with lenders within 48 hours of a “no” vote on Sunday. Kathimerini

The European Central Bank plans to meet on Monday to discuss provision of Emergency Lending Assistance (ELA) to Greek banks. [Reuters]

IMF debt sustainability analysis

The International Monetary Fund released its debt sustainability analysis (DSA) that concluded that Greece’s debt is not sustainable and that it needs a 20-year grace period on its debt repayments, and an extra EUR 50 billion in new loans.

Mohamed El-Erian commented: “The IMF’s DSA (debt sustainability analysis) for Greece offers a stark reminder of the challenges faced by all those involved in this horrid tragedy. It points to an enormous need for economic reforms by a country that – repeatedly – has had huge difficulties sustaining a less ambitious effort under several governments. It speaks to the need for Europe to bite the bullet and deliver a credible “debt operation” (which, most probably, would involve debt forgiveness, the very mention of which has proven an anathema to some European governments).

And all this would need to happen if the IMF (and soon, possibly, also the ECB) is to stand a chance of being paid back in a full and more timely fashion.

While all sides are likely to use the IMF’s DSA to bolster their case ahead of Sunday’s referendum, it is increasingly possible that even a “yes” vote would prove insufficient to maintain the country’s membership of the European single currency. Every single day, an already challenging situation on the ground is slipping further away from the ability of politicians, whether in Greece or elsewhere in Europe, to deliver outcomes.

Ratings downgrades

Moody’s has put the ratings of National Bank of Greece, Piraeus Bank, Eurobank Ergasias, Alpha Bank and Attica Bank on review for a possible downgrade.

Fitch has downgraded the long-term senior debt rating of National Bank of Greece and Eurobank Ergasias from CCC to CC. Fitch concluded that Greek banks would have failed without capital controls. Fitch