Monday 20 May 2013

USA: Markets

Stock market indices

Index Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 12 Change
S&P 500 SPX 1,666.25 -0.07% 1,428 +16.85%
DJIA INDU 15,335.28 -0.12% 13,105 +17.02%
NASDAQ IXIC 3,496.43 -0.07% 3,020 +15.78%

PORTFOLIO

:-) Outperformed Today Change 31 Dec 12 Change
Portfolio Index (USD) 1.087 +1.26% 1.193 -8.92%
Trading Rate: USD/AUD 0.98679 +0.96% 1.04420 -5.50%
Portfolio Index (AUD) 1.101 +0.30% 1.143 -3.62%

Stock prices

Stock Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 12 Change
Apple AAPL $442.93 +2.23% $532.17 -16.77%
Amazon AMZN $267.63 -0.84% $250.87 +6.68%
Ebay EBAY $55.95 -1.34% $51.00 +9.71%
Facebook FB $25.759 -1.87% $26.62 -3.23%
Google GOOG $908.53 -0.07% $707.38 +28.44%
Linkedin LNKD $182.31 -0.02% $114.82 +58.78%
VMware VMW $76.76 -2.77% $94.14 -18.46%

Weekly Review: 18-19 May 2013

USA

Public debt

Public debt as of 16 May 2013 has fallen to $16.735 trillion [More] up $0.301 trillion on the $16.434 trillion statutory borrowing limit.

On 4 Feb 2013 President Barack Obama signed a suspension of the debt ceiling that runs until 19 May 2013 – this weekend. The statutory limit on federal public debt will be reinstated on that date. An Act passed on 9 May 2013 prioritises who will be paid if the debt limit is exceeded, which it will be on Monday.

Public debt appears to be reducing however, opening the possibility that a deferral of the borrowing limit may allow a similar situation to “trading out of trouble”. [More]

usdebt_20130516
Source: US Treasury Department

US market indices

Index 17 May 13 Week 10 May 13 Month 30 Apr 13 Year 31 Dec 12
S&P 500 1,633.70 +1.18% 1,633.70 +2.26% 1,597.57 +14.57% 1,426
DJIA 15,118.49 +0.97% 15,118.49 +1.88% 14,839.80 +15.36% 13,105
NASDAQ 3,436.58 +1.72% 3,436.58 +3.24% 3,328.79 +13.79% 3,020

PORTFOLIO: This week’s performance

:-( Apple’s 4.35% fall this week caused our index to under perform the market.
:-) Google hit a new record of $915.89 on Wednesday, and has remained above $900.
:-) Linkedin has recovered 4.93% to close at $182.35.

Portfolio index

Index 17 May 13 Week 10 May 13 Month 30 Apr 13 Year 31 Dec 12
USD Index 1.073 -2.18% 1.097 +0.42% 1.069 -10.05% 1.193
Trading USD/AUD 0.97740 -2.83% 1.00586 -6.17% 1.04167 -6.40% 1.04420
AUD Index 1.098 +0.67% 1.090 +7.03% 1.026 -3.90% 1.143

:-) The AUD continues its dramatic fall against the USD, down 7.8% since 12 Apr 2013. This has caused our AUD-denominated index to rise 7.03% so far this month.

AUD_20130517ytd
Source: xe.com
The main causes for the AUD weakness include:

  • primarily: the USD is strengthening on a 2-year optimistic forecast, and
  • to a lesser extent: the AUD is falling out of favour with Japanese traders. [More]

However, from a long term point of view, the decline of the AUD over the last month seems less significant. The Australian Industry Association is hoping that the AUD falls to USD0.88 (2010 level) at which point Australian industry would be more competitive.

AUD_ltv
Source: xe.com

Portfolio strategy: active trading experiment

No trades this week – ANZ remains out of our trading range. But don’t worry, it’ll return to the range.

Apple [AAPL]

  • Friday close: $433.26 -4.35% from $452.97.
  • Market value: $406.7bn -$18.5bn from $425.2bn.
  • P/E (historical): 10.34 ↓ from 10.81
  • P/E (1 year fwd): 10.86 ↓ from 11.42
  • Last quarterly earnings report: Mar 2013 quarter
  • Target (1 year): NASDAQ consensus $540, range $420 ↔ $725.
  • Analyst recommendations: 21 strong buy, 6 buy, 8 hold.

Amazon [AMZN]

  • Friday close: $269.90 +2.38% from $263.63
  • Market value: $122.9bn +$2.9bn from $120.0bn
  • P/E (historical): NE
  • P/E (1 year fwd): 197 ↑ from 190
  • Last quarterly earnings report: Dec 2012 quarter (PDF)
  • Target (1 year): NASDAQ consensus $307.5, range $260 ↔ $341.
  • Analyst recommendations: 19 strong buy, 2 buy, 10 hold.

Ebay [EBAY]

  • Friday close: $56.71 +1.90% from $55.65.
  • Market value: $73.598bn +$1.376bn from $72.222bn
  • P/E (historical): 27.53 ↑ from 27.01
  • P/E (1 year fwd): 23.25 ↑ from 22.99
  • Last quarterly earnings report: Mar 2013 quarter
  • Target (1 year): NASDAQ consensus $63, range $46 ↔ $70.
  • Analyst recommendations: 20 strong buy, 4 buy, 4 hold.

Facebook [FB]

  • Friday close: $26.25 -1.61% from $26.68
  • Market value: $63.470bn down $1.040bn from $64.510bn
  • P/E (historical): 1,313 ↓ from 1,334
  • P/E (1 year fwd): 68.76 ↓ from 71.16
  • Last quarterly earnings report: Mar 2013 quarter
  • Target (1 year): NASDAQ consensus $34, range $27 ↔ $40.
  • Analyst recommendations: 17 strong buy, 2 buy, 11 hold.

Google [GOOG]

  • Friday close: $909.18 +3.29% from $880.23.
  • Market value: $301.6bn +$11.6bn from $290.0bn
  • P/E (historical): 27.13 ↑ from 26.27
  • P/E (1 year fwd): 23.35 ↑ from 22.51
  • Last quarterly earnings report: Mar 2013 quarter
  • Target (1 year): NASDAQ consensus $895, range $780 ↔ $1,025.
    Consensus raised from $875. Upper limit raised from $1000.
  • Analyst recommendations: 20 strong buy, 3 buy, 6 hold.

Linkedin [LNKD]

  • Friday close: $182.35 +4.93% from $173.78.
  • Market value: $20.124bn, up $0.945bn from $19.179bn
  • P/E (historical): 521 ↑ from 487
  • P/E (1 year fwd): 1,067 ↑ from 1,043
  • Last quarterly earnings report: Mar 2013 quarter
  • Target (1 year): NASDAQ consensus $200, range $170 ↔ $218.
    Range narrowed from 145 ↔ $220.
  • Analyst recommendations: 14 strong buy, 0 buy, 15 (+1) hold.

VMware [VMW]

  • Friday close: $78.95 +2.67% from $76.90.
  • Market value: $33.804 up $0.877bn from $32.927bn
  • P/E (historical): 47.28 ↑ from 46.05
  • P/E (1 year fwd): 33.71 ↑ from 31.94
  • Last quarterly earnings report: Mar 2013 quarter (PDF)
  • Target (1 year): NASDAQ consensus $92.50, range $61 ↔ $125.
  • Analyst recommendations: 11 (-1) strong buy, 3 buy, 13 hold, 1 under perform, 1 sell.

Friday 17 May 2013

USA: Markets

Stock market indices

Index Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 12 Change
S&P 500 SPX 1,667.47 +1.03% 1,428 +16.93%
DJIA INDU 15,354.40 +0.80% 13,105 +17.16%
NASDAQ IXIC 3,498.97 +0.97% 3,020 +15.86%

PORTFOLIO

:-( Underperformed Today Change 31 Dec 12 Change
Portfolio Index (USD) 1.072 +0.12% 1.193 -10.05%
Trading Rate: USD/AUD 0.97740 -0.87% 1.04420 -6.40%
Portfolio Index (AUD) 1.098 +1.00% 1.143 -3.90%

The AUD fell to USD0.97148 today as the US market improves and Japan sells out of the AUD.

AUD_20130517
Source: xe.com

Stock prices

Stock Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 12 Change
Apple AAPL $433.26 -0.30% $532.17 -18.57%
Amazon AMZN $269.90 +2.19% $250.87 +7.59%
Ebay EBAY $56.71 +1.63% $51.00 +11.20%
Facebook FB $26.25 +0.46% $26.62 -1.39%
Google GOOG $909.18 +0.59% $707.38 +28.53%
Linkedin LNKD $182.35 +0.55% $114.82 +58.81%
VMware VMW $78.95 +0.09% $94.14 -16.14%

Thursday 16 May 2013

USA: Markets

Stock market indices

Index Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 12 Change
S&P 500 SPX 1,650.47 -0.50% 1,428 +15.74%
DJIA INDU 15,233.22 -0.28% 13,105 +16.24%
NASDAQ IXIC 3,465.24 -0.18% 3,020 +14.74%

PORTFOLIO

Our portfolio index improved a little as Apple rose 1.34% against a general fall in market indices. However it remains 38% below its peak of last September, and is down 18% so far this calendar year.

:-) Outperformed Today Change 31 Dec 12 Change
Portfolio Index (USD) 1.072 +0.59% 1.193 -10.15%
Trading Rate: USD/AUD 0.98599 -0.74% 1.04420 -5.57%
Portfolio Index (AUD) 1.087 +1.34% 1.143 -4.85%

The AUD continues to fall, which improves Australia’s competitiveness, and improves the performance of our AUD portfolio index:
xe_20130516
Source: xe.com

Stock prices

Stock Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 12 Change
Apple AAPL $434.578 +1.34% $532.17 -18.34%
Amazon AMZN $264.12 -0.92% $250.87 +5.28%
Ebay EBAY $55.80 -1.50% $51.00 +9.41%
Facebook FB $26.13 -1.77% $26.62 -1.84%
Google GOOG $903.87 -1.31% $707.38 +27.78%
Linkedin LNKD $181.36 -1.87% $114.82 +57.95%
VMware VMW $78.88 +2.26% $94.14 -16.21%

BY THE WAY

Melbourne incubator AngelCube introduced its class of 2013 to mentors tonight. We think this is their best class we’ve seen: good teams and good product ideas. It was also great to see how Inspire9‘s co-working space has developed.

angelcube_engage

Wednesday 15 May 2013

USA: Markets

Stock market indices

Index Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 12 Change
S&P 500 SPX 1,657.84 +0.45% 1,428 +16.26%
DJIA INDU 15,275.69 +0.40% 13,105 +16.56%
NASDAQ IXIC 3,471.62 +0.26% 3,020 +14.95%

PORTFOLIO

:-( Underperformed Today Change 31 Dec 12 Change
Portfolio Index (USD) 1.066 -1.98% 1.193 -10.68%
Trading Rate: USD/AUD 0.99338 -0.06% 1.04420 -4.87%
Portfolio Index (AUD) 1.073 -1.92% 1.143 -6.11%

Stock prices

Google pushed through $900 to a new record price of $915.89, up 3.25%. But the shine came off Apple, down 3.38% to $428.85.

Google has introduced music streaming and updated Google Maps, the Android operating system, Glass and Chrome. [More]

Lloyd says: Yes, I should have gone to Google IO Extended with the Google Developer Group last night/early morning. 34 brighter, and younger, people were at the function which ran from 1.30am to 5:30am at the York Butter Factory (co-working space for tech startups) in Melbourne.

Stock Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 12 Change
Apple AAPL $428.85 -3.38% $532.17 -19.41%
Amazon AMZN $266.56 -0.66% $250.87 +6.25%
Ebay EBAY $56.65 +0.68% $51.00 +11.08%
Facebook FB $26.60 -1.74% $26.62 -0.08%
Google GOOG $915.89 +3.25% $707.38 +29.48%
Linkedin LNKD $184.81 +0.22% $114.82 +60.96%
VMware VMW $77.14 -0.32% $94.14 -18.06%

Tuesday 14 May 2013

USA: Markets

Stock market indices

Index Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 12 Change
S&P 500 SPX 1,650.34 +1.01% 1,428 +15.73%
DJIA INDU 15,215.25 +0.82% 13,105 +16.10%
NASDAQ IXIC 3,462.61 +0.69% 3,020 +14.66%

PORTFOLIO

Despite another record high price at Google and a 5.38% rise at Linkedin, our index underperformed the marked because of a fall in Apple’s share price.

:-( Underperformed Today Change 31 Dec 12 Change
Portfolio Index (USD) 1.087 -1.16% 1.193 -8.87%
Trading Rate: USD/AUD 0.99402 -0.64% 1.04420 -4.81%
Portfolio Index (AUD) 1.099 -0.52% 1.143 -4.27%

Stock prices

Source: NASDAQ

Stock Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 12 Change
Apple AAPL $443.86 -2.39% $532.17 -16.59%
Amazon AMZN $268.33 +1.44% $250.87 +6.96%
Ebay EBAY $56.27 +1.70% $51.00 +10.33%
Facebook FB $27.07 +0.93% $26.62 +1.69%
Google GOOG $887.10 +1.09% $707.38 +25.41%
Linkedin LNKD $184.44 +5.38% $114.82 +60.63%
VMware VMW $77.39 +0.81% $94.14 -17.79%

Monday 13 May 2013

USA: Markets

Stock market indices

Index Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 12 Change
S&P 500 SPX 1,632.54 -0.07% 1,428 +14.48%
DJIA INDU 15,o91.91 -0.18% 13,105 +15.16%
NASDAQ IXIC 3,438.79 +0.06% 3,020 +13.87%

PORTFOLIO

:-) Outperformed Today Change 31 Dec 12 Change
Portfolio Index (USD) 1.100 +0.26% 1.193 -7.80%
Trading Rate: USD/AUD 1.00047 -0.54% 1.04420 -4.19%
Portfolio Index (AUD) 1.099 +0.80% 1.143 -3.77%

Stock prices

Source: NASDAQ

Stock Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 12 Change
Apple AAPL $454.74 +0.39% $532.17 -14.55%
Amazon AMZN $264.51 +0.33% $250.87 +5.44%
Ebay EBAY $55.33 -0.58% $51.00 +8.49%
Facebook FB $26.82 +0.52% $26.62 +0.75%
Google GOOG $877.53 -0.31% $707.38 +23.95%
Linkedin LNKD $175.09 +0.75% $114.82 +52.49%
VMware VMW $76.77 -0.17% $94.14 -18.45%

Weekly Review: 11-12 May 2013

AUSTRALIA: Fiscal Incompetence

2013 was promised to be the year that the Labor government would deliver its first fiscal surplus – a surplus of $1.5bn. However next Tuesday’s budget looks like delivering a deficit of AUD17bn. A major problem has been wildly optimistic estimates of revenue from existing and new taxes (e.g. mining tax and carbon tax) compounded by profligate spending programs which spent expected revenues before they were validated or received.

hfv
“Hypothetical Future Value” (from: “Enron – The Smartest Guys in the Room)

The principles of Jeff Skilling’s spoof of mark-to-market accounting appear to explain the revenue forecasting approach adopted by Australia’s Treasurer.

Update 14 May 2013 The fiscal outcome for 2012/2013 will not be the promised $1.5bn surplus – instead it will be a deficit of $19.4bn (much larger than the most pessimistic expectations), followed by another deficit of $18bn in 2013/2014. [More]

USA

Public debt

Public debt as of 9 May 2013 has fallen to $16.755 trillion [More] up $0.321 trillion on the $16.434 trillion statutory borrowing limit. On 4 Feb 2013 President Barack Obama signed a suspension of the debt ceiling that runs until 19 May 2013, next weekend. The statutory limit on federal public debt will be reinstated on that date. [More]

US market indices

Index 10 May 13 Week 3 May 13 Month 30 Apr 13 Year 31 Dec 12
S&P 500 1,633.70 +1.18% 1,614.64 +2.26% 1,597.57 +14.57% 1,426
DJIA 15,118.49 +0.97% 14,973.88 +1.88% 14,839.80 +15.36% 13,105
NASDAQ 3,436.58 +1.72% 3,378.63 +3.24% 3,328.79 +13.79% 3,020

PORTFOLIO: This week’s performance

Portfolio index

Index 10 May 13 Week 3 May 13 Month 30 Apr 13 Year 31 Dec 12
USD Index 1.097 +1.09% 1.085 +2.66% 1.069 -8.05% 1.193
Trading USD/AUD 1.00586 -3.01% 1.03712 -3.44% 1.04167 -3.67% 1.04420
AUD Index 1.090 +4.23% 1.046 +6.31% 1.026 -4.54% 1.143

The AUD has fallen 3.4% during the past month, reaching USD parity on Friday because of:

  • Strength of the USD, e.g. against the JPY
  • Australian factors including weakening growth outlook and a reduction in the RBA’s official cash rate

XE_20130511
Source: xe.com

Portfolio strategy: active trading experiment

No trades this week – ANZ remains out of our trading range. But don’t worry, it’ll return to the range.

Apple [AAPL]

  • Friday close: $452.97 +0.66% from $449.98.
  • Market value: $425.2bn +$2.8bn from $422.4bn.
  • P/E (historical): 10.81 ↑ from 10.74
  • P/E (1 year fwd): 11.42 ↑ from 11.11
  • Last quarterly earnings report: Mar 2013 quarter
  • Target (1 year): NASDAQ consensus $540, range $420 ↔ $725
    Upper limit raised from $710.
  • Analyst recommendations: 21 strong buy, 6 buy, 8 hold.

Amazon [AMZN]

  • Friday close: $263.63 +2.16% from $258.05
  • Market value: $120.0bn +$2.5bn from $117.5bn
  • P/E (historical): NE
  • P/E (1 year fwd): 190 ↑ from 184
  • Last quarterly earnings report: Dec 2012 quarter (PDF)
  • Target (1 year): NASDAQ consensus $307.5, range $260 ↔ $341.
  • Analyst recommendations: 19 strong buy, 2 buy, 10 hold.

Ebay [EBAY]

  • Friday close: $55.65 +2.66% from $54.21.
  • Market value: $72.222bn +$1.869bn from $70.353bn
  • P/E (historical): 27.01 ↑ from 26.32
  • P/E (1 year fwd): 22.99 ↑ from 22.22
  • Last quarterly earnings report: Mar 2013 quarter
  • Target (1 year): NASDAQ consensus $63, range $46 ↔ $70.
  • Analyst recommendations: 20 strong buy, 4 buy, 4 hold.

Facebook [FB]

  • Friday close: $26.68 -5.76% from $28.31
  • Market value: $64.510bn
  • P/E (historical): 1,334 ↓ from 1,415
  • P/E (1 year fwd): 71.16 ↓ from 80.47
  • Last quarterly earnings report: Mar 2013 quarter
  • Target (1 year): NASDAQ consensus $34, range $27 ↔ $40.
  • Analyst recommendations: 17 strong buy, 2 buy, 11 hold.

Google [GOOG]

  • Friday close: $880.23 +4.08% from $845.72.
  • Market value: $290.0bn +$9.4bn from $280.6bn
  • P/E (historical): 26.27 ↑ from 25.24
  • P/E (1 year fwd): 22.51 ↑ from 21.44
  • Last quarterly earnings report: Mar 2013 quarter
  • Target (1 year): NASDAQ consensus $875, range $780 ↔ $1,000.
  • Analyst recommendations: 20 strong buy, 3 buy, 6 hold.

Linkedin [LNKD]

  • Friday close: $173.78 -1.03% from $175.59.
  • Market value: $19.179bn
  • P/E (historical): 497 ↓ from 502
  • P/E (1 year fwd): 1,043 ↑ from 695
  • Last quarterly earnings report: Mar 2013 quarter
  • Target (1 year): NASDAQ consensus $200, range $145 ↔ $220.
    Consensus raised from $180, lower limit raised from $140.
  • Analyst recommendations: 14 (+1) strong buy, 0 buy, 14 hold.

VMware [VMW]

  • Friday close: $76.90 +3.22% from $74.50.
  • Market value: $32.927bn
  • P/E (historical): 46.05 ↑ from 42.79
  • P/E (1 year fwd): 31.94 ↓ from 32.03
  • Last quarterly earnings report: Mar 2013 quarter (PDF)
  • Target (1 year): NASDAQ consensus $92.50, range $61 ↔ $125.
  • Analyst recommendations: 12 strong buy, 3 buy, 13 hold, 1 under perform, 1 sell.

Friday 10 May 2013

USA: Markets

Stock market indices

Index Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 12 Change
S&P 500 SPX 1,633.70 +0.43% 1,428 +14.57%
DJIA INDU 15,118.49 +0.24% 13,105 +15.36%
NASDAQ IXIC 3,436.58 +0.80% 3,020 +13.79%

PORTFOLIO

:-( Underperformed Today Change 31 Dec 12 Change
Portfolio Index (USD) 1.097 -0.38% 1.193 -8.05%
Trading Rate: USD/AUD 1.00586 -0.67% 1.04420 -3.67%
Portfolio Index (AUD) 1.091 +0.30% 1.143 -4.54%

The AUD fell below parity with the USD for a while today:

xe_20120510
Source: xe.com

Stock prices

:-) Google closed on a new record high of $880.23, beating Wednesday’s record of $873.63.

Stock Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 12 Change
Apple AAPL $452.97 -0.83% $532.17 -14.88%
Amazon AMZN $263.63 +1.33% $250.87 +5.09%
Ebay EBAY $55.65 +0.87% $51.00 +9.12%
Facebook FB $26.68 -1.33% $26.62 +0.23%
Google GOOG $880.23 +1.00% $707.38 +24.44%
Linkedin LNKD $173.78 -2.04% $114.82 +51.35%
VMware VMW $76.90 +2.02% $94.14 -18.31%

Thursday 9 May 2013

USA: Markets

  • Applications for unemployment insurance payments fell 4,000 to 323,000 in the week ended 4 May 2013, below expectations of 335,000.[More]

Stock market indices

Index Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 12 Change
S&P 500 SPX 1,625.31 -0.40% 1,428 +13.98%
DJIA INDU 15,082.62 -0.15% 13,105 +15.09%
NASDAQ IXIC 3,409.17 -0.12% 3,020 +12.89%

PORTFOLIO

:-( Underperformed Today Change 31 Dec 12 Change
Portfolio Index (USD) 1.101 -1.12% 1.193 -7.70%
Trading Rate: USD/AUD 1.01263 -0.90% 1.04420 -3.02%
Portfolio Index (AUD) 1.087 -0.22% 1.143 -4.82%

The AUD fell further today:

xe_20130509
Source: xe.com

Stock prices

Source: NASDAQ

Stock Ticker Today Change 31 Dec 12 Change
Apple AAPL $456.77 -0.87% $532.17 -14.17%
Amazon AMZN $260.16 +0.57% $250.87 +3.70%
Ebay EBAY $55.17 +0.38% $51.00 +8.18%
Facebook FB $27.04 -0.29% $26.62 +1.58%
Google GOOG $871.48 -0.25% $707.38 +23.20%
Linkedin LNKD $177.39 +0.14% $114.82 +54.49%
VMware VMW $75.38 -2.07% $94.14 -19.96%