USA
Public debt
Public debt as of 16 May 2013 has fallen to $16.735 trillion [More] up $0.301 trillion on the $16.434 trillion statutory borrowing limit.
On 4 Feb 2013 President Barack Obama signed a suspension of the debt ceiling that runs until 19 May 2013 – this weekend. The statutory limit on federal public debt will be reinstated on that date. An Act passed on 9 May 2013 prioritises who will be paid if the debt limit is exceeded, which it will be on Monday.
Public debt appears to be reducing however, opening the possibility that a deferral of the borrowing limit may allow a similar situation to “trading out of trouble”. [More]
Source: US Treasury Department
US market indices
| Index |
17 May 13 |
Week |
10 May 13 |
Month |
30 Apr 13 |
Year |
31 Dec 12 |
| S&P 500 |
1,633.70 |
+1.18% |
1,633.70 |
+2.26% |
1,597.57 |
+14.57% |
1,426 |
| DJIA |
15,118.49 |
+0.97% |
15,118.49 |
+1.88% |
14,839.80 |
+15.36% |
13,105 |
| NASDAQ |
3,436.58 |
+1.72% |
3,436.58 |
+3.24% |
3,328.79 |
+13.79% |
3,020 |
PORTFOLIO: This week’s performance
Apple’s 4.35% fall this week caused our index to under perform the market.
Google hit a new record of $915.89 on Wednesday, and has remained above $900.
Linkedin has recovered 4.93% to close at $182.35.
Portfolio index
| Index |
17 May 13 |
Week |
10 May 13 |
Month |
30 Apr 13 |
Year |
31 Dec 12 |
| USD Index |
1.073 |
-2.18% |
1.097 |
+0.42% |
1.069 |
-10.05% |
1.193 |
| Trading USD/AUD |
0.97740 |
-2.83% |
1.00586 |
-6.17% |
1.04167 |
-6.40% |
1.04420 |
| AUD Index |
1.098 |
+0.67% |
1.090 |
+7.03% |
1.026 |
-3.90% |
1.143 |
The AUD continues its dramatic fall against the USD, down 7.8% since 12 Apr 2013. This has caused our AUD-denominated index to rise 7.03% so far this month.
Source: xe.com
The main causes for the AUD weakness include:
- primarily: the USD is strengthening on a 2-year optimistic forecast, and
- to a lesser extent: the AUD is falling out of favour with Japanese traders. [More]
However, from a long term point of view, the decline of the AUD over the last month seems less significant. The Australian Industry Association is hoping that the AUD falls to USD0.88 (2010 level) at which point Australian industry would be more competitive.
Source: xe.com
Portfolio strategy: active trading experiment
No trades this week – ANZ remains out of our trading range. But don’t worry, it’ll return to the range.
- Friday close: $433.26 -4.35% from $452.97.
- Market value: $406.7bn -$18.5bn from $425.2bn.
- P/E (historical): 10.34 ↓ from 10.81
- P/E (1 year fwd): 10.86 ↓ from 11.42
- Last quarterly earnings report: Mar 2013 quarter
- Target (1 year): NASDAQ consensus $540, range $420 ↔ $725.
- Analyst recommendations: 21 strong buy, 6 buy, 8 hold.
- Friday close: $269.90 +2.38% from $263.63
- Market value: $122.9bn +$2.9bn from $120.0bn
- P/E (historical): NE
- P/E (1 year fwd): 197 ↑ from 190
- Last quarterly earnings report: Dec 2012 quarter (PDF)
- Target (1 year): NASDAQ consensus $307.5, range $260 ↔ $341.
- Analyst recommendations: 19 strong buy, 2 buy, 10 hold.
- Friday close: $56.71 +1.90% from $55.65.
- Market value: $73.598bn +$1.376bn from $72.222bn
- P/E (historical): 27.53 ↑ from 27.01
- P/E (1 year fwd): 23.25 ↑ from 22.99
- Last quarterly earnings report: Mar 2013 quarter
- Target (1 year): NASDAQ consensus $63, range $46 ↔ $70.
- Analyst recommendations: 20 strong buy, 4 buy, 4 hold.
- Friday close: $26.25 -1.61% from $26.68
- Market value: $63.470bn down $1.040bn from $64.510bn
- P/E (historical): 1,313 ↓ from 1,334
- P/E (1 year fwd): 68.76 ↓ from 71.16
- Last quarterly earnings report: Mar 2013 quarter
- Target (1 year): NASDAQ consensus $34, range $27 ↔ $40.
- Analyst recommendations: 17 strong buy, 2 buy, 11 hold.
- Friday close: $909.18 +3.29% from $880.23.
- Market value: $301.6bn +$11.6bn from $290.0bn
- P/E (historical): 27.13 ↑ from 26.27
- P/E (1 year fwd): 23.35 ↑ from 22.51
- Last quarterly earnings report: Mar 2013 quarter
- Target (1 year): NASDAQ consensus $895, range $780 ↔ $1,025.
Consensus raised from $875. Upper limit raised from $1000.
- Analyst recommendations: 20 strong buy, 3 buy, 6 hold.
- Friday close: $182.35 +4.93% from $173.78.
- Market value: $20.124bn, up $0.945bn from $19.179bn
- P/E (historical): 521 ↑ from 487
- P/E (1 year fwd): 1,067 ↑ from 1,043
- Last quarterly earnings report: Mar 2013 quarter
- Target (1 year): NASDAQ consensus $200, range $170 ↔ $218.
Range narrowed from 145 ↔ $220.
- Analyst recommendations: 14 strong buy, 0 buy, 15 (+1) hold.
- Friday close: $78.95 +2.67% from $76.90.
- Market value: $33.804 up $0.877bn from $32.927bn
- P/E (historical): 47.28 ↑ from 46.05
- P/E (1 year fwd): 33.71 ↑ from 31.94
- Last quarterly earnings report: Mar 2013 quarter (PDF)
- Target (1 year): NASDAQ consensus $92.50, range $61 ↔ $125.
- Analyst recommendations: 11 (-1) strong buy, 3 buy, 13 hold, 1 under perform, 1 sell.
