In Portfolioticker today
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Today at the stock market
“U.S. stocks ended slightly lower on Thursday after the International Monetary Fund warned that Greece faces a financial hole ahead of its Sunday referendum, and as muted jobs data dampened the U.S. economic outlook.” Reuters
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|S&P 500||SPX (INX)||2,076.78||-0.03%||2,058.90||+0.87%|
The shape of the day
Nightly Business Report: 2 Jul 2015 Watch
The portfolio today
|Outperformed||Currency||Today||Change||31 Dec 14||YTD|
Stock price movements
Portfolio stock prices
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Australia’s persistent trade deficit dropped the AUD today, but then it recovered most of that fall.
Oil and Gas Futures
- NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI): $56.58/barrel Chart
- ICE (London) Brent North Sea Crude: $61.83/barrel Chart
- NYMEX Natural gas futures: $2.83/MMBTU Chart
Australia: International Trade in Goods & Services – May 2015
“BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES
In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,611m in May 2015, an increase of $318m (14%) on the deficit in April 2015.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,751m in May 2015, a decrease of $1,385m (33%) on the deficit in April 2015.”
|Mar 2015||Apr 2015||May 2015||Apr – May 15|
|EXPORTS of goods and services (Credits)|
|IMPORTS of goods and services (Debits)|
|BALANCE on goods and services|
Australian Bureau of Statistics, “5368.0 – International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, May 2015“, 2 Jul 2015 More
USA: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – Week to 27 Jun 2015
“In the week ending June 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 281,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 271,000. The 4-week moving average was 274,750, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 273,750.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.7 percent for the week ending June 20, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 20 was 2,264,000, an increase of 15,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 2,000 from 2,247,000 to 2,249,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,252,500, an increase of 15,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 2,237,000 to 2,237,500.”
Employment and Training Administration, “Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – Week to 27 Jun 2015″, 2 Jul 2015 (08:30) More
USA: Jobs Report – Jun 2015
“Nonfarm payrolls increased 223,000 last month, below the 230,000 that economists polled by Reuters had expected.” Reuters
“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in June, and the unemployment rate declined to 5.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, financial activities, and in transportation and warehousing.
Household Survey Data
The unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 5.3 percent in June, and the number of
unemployed persons declined by 375,000 to 8.3 million.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) declined by 381,000 to 2.1 million in June. These individuals accounted for 25.8 percent of the unemployed. Over the past 12 months, the number of long-term unemployed has declined by 955,000.
The civilian labor force declined by 432,000 in June, following an increase of similar magnitude in May. The labor force participation rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 62.6 percent in June. The employment-population ratio, at 59.3 percent, was essentially unchanged in June and has shown little movement thus far this year.
Establishment Survey Data
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 223,000 in June, compared with an average monthly gain of 250,000 over the prior 12 months. In June, job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, financial activities, and in transportation and warehousing.
In June, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls were unchanged at $24.95. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.0 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees edged up by 2 cents to $20.99 in June.”
Bureau of Labor Statistics, “The Employment Situation – Jun 2015″, 2 Jul 2015 (08:30) More
Greece update << Prev
State of Play
EC’s chief spokesman Margaritis Schinas has confirmed that talks with Athens are now on ice until Greece has voted on its future on Sunday.
However Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said on ANT1 television channel today that he expects a deal with lenders within 48 hours of a “no” vote on Sunday. Kathimerini
The European Central Bank plans to meet on Monday to discuss provision of Emergency Lending Assistance (ELA) to Greek banks. [Reuters]
IMF debt sustainability analysis
The International Monetary Fund released its debt sustainability analysis (DSA) that concluded that Greece’s debt is not sustainable and that it needs a 20-year grace period on its debt repayments, and an extra EUR 50 billion in new loans.
Mohamed El-Erian commented: “The IMF’s DSA (debt sustainability analysis) for Greece offers a stark reminder of the challenges faced by all those involved in this horrid tragedy. It points to an enormous need for economic reforms by a country that – repeatedly – has had huge difficulties sustaining a less ambitious effort under several governments. It speaks to the need for Europe to bite the bullet and deliver a credible “debt operation” (which, most probably, would involve debt forgiveness, the very mention of which has proven an anathema to some European governments).
And all this would need to happen if the IMF (and soon, possibly, also the ECB) is to stand a chance of being paid back in a full and more timely fashion.
While all sides are likely to use the IMF’s DSA to bolster their case ahead of Sunday’s referendum, it is increasingly possible that even a “yes” vote would prove insufficient to maintain the country’s membership of the European single currency. Every single day, an already challenging situation on the ground is slipping further away from the ability of politicians, whether in Greece or elsewhere in Europe, to deliver outcomes.”
Moody’s has put the ratings of National Bank of Greece, Piraeus Bank, Eurobank Ergasias, Alpha Bank and Attica Bank on review for a possible downgrade.
Fitch has downgraded the long-term senior debt rating of National Bank of Greece and Eurobank Ergasias from CCC to CC. Fitch concluded that Greek banks would have failed without capital controls. Fitch