Markit / JMMA Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI – Aug 2014
“Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI at 52.4 (50.5 in July). Modest improvement in growth registered in August.
Flash Japan Manufacturing Output Index at 53.2 (49.8 in July). Output increased at solid pace.”
Markit / JMMA, “Markit/JMMA Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI – PMI points to strongest manufacturing expansion since March“, 21 Aug 2014 More
HSBC/Markit Flash China Manufacturing PMI – Aug 2014
“Flash China PMI: 50.3 in August (51.7 in July). Three-month low.
Flash China Manufacturing Output Index at 51.3 in August (52.8 in July). Three-month low.”
HSBC/Markit, “HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI – Output and new orders both expand at weaker rates in August 2014“, 21 Aug 2014 More
“Pressure for more policy easing will mount further and we continue to expect more targeted stimulus measures to be rolled out. The bank is sticking to its 2014 forecast of 7.4 percent economic growth but this will only be possible if Beijing acts quickly to prop up aggregate demand.”
Dariusz Kowalczyk, Senior Economist, Credit Agricole CIB (Hong Kong) More
“The government is supporting the economy, but compared with 2009 it’s still mini. They are trying to protect the bottom line of growth which is around 7.5 percent, so with a lot of difficulty probably will achieve it.”
Wang Tao, Head of China Wconomic Research, UBS AG (Hong Kong) More
Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index – Aug 2014
“Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index at 52.8 (53.8 in July). 2-month low.
Flash Eurozone Services PMI Activity Index at 53.5 (54.2 in July). 2-month low.”
Markit / JMMA, “Markit Flash Eurozone PMI® – Eurozone recovery makes steady progress in August, as France stabilises“, 21 Aug 2014 More
“For the euro zone right now, bad news is good news, as bad news intensifies expectations for QE. I’m sticking to my range-bound view. The current soft patch in the economy is offset by increased QE expectations. The ECB will keep those expectations alive.”
Gunther Westen, Head of Asset Allocation and Fund Management, Meriten Investment Management GmbH (Dusseldorf) ($35bn) More
The Kansas City Fed’s Economic Symposium commences today at Jackson Hole, Wyoming
Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report: Week to 16 Aug 2014
Jobless claims to 298,000 – below the forecast 303,000. Ongoing claims fell to the lowest level in more than 7 years.
“In the week ending August 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 298,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 311,000 to 312,000. The 4-week moving average was 300,750, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 295,750 to 296,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.9 percent for the week ending August 9, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending August 9 was 2,500,000, a decrease of 49,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since June 16, 2007 when it was 2,453,000. The previous week’s level was revised up 5,000 from 2,544,000 to 2,549,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,527,500, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,250 from 2,528,250 to 2,529,500.”
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, “Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – Week to 16 Aug 2014“, 21 Aug 2014 (08:30am) More
“We have seen significant progress in the labor market over the last three years, and particularly this year. As we look at the healing we’ve seen in the economy and that progress, we’re in a good place to begin talking about normalisation.”
Esther George, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (speaking at Jackson Hole) More
“The job market is doing well right now, there’s no doubt about it. There’s a good chance we’ll get another solid month of payrolls. Lower layoffs, together with faster hiring, mean better prospects for consumer spending.”
Guy Berger, Economist, RBS Securities Inc. More
Markit Flash US Manufacturing PMI – Aug 2014
“PMI flash 58.0 vs 55.8 prior, and 55.7 expected
Employment 54.6 vs 51.2 prior
Output 60.2 vs 59.7 prior”
Markit, “Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI – U.S. Manufacturing PMI rises to highest level since April 2010“, 21 Aug 2014 (09:45) More
Existing home sales – Jul 2014
“Existing-home sales increased in July to their highest annual pace of the year, and the ongoing decline in distressed sales reached an important milestone, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 2.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.15 million in July from a slight downwardly-revised 5.03 million in June. Sales are at the highest pace of 2014 and have risen four consecutive months, but remain 4.3 percent below the 5.38 million-unit level from last July, which was the peak of 2013.
The median existing-home price for all housing types in July was $222,900, which is 4.9 percent above July 2013. This marks the 29th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains.
Total housing inventory at the end of July rose 3.5 percent to 2.37 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 5.5-month supply at the current sales pace. Unsold inventory is 5.8 percent higher than a year ago, when there were 2.24 million existing homes available for sale.
Distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales – accounted for 9 percent of July sales, down from 15 percent a year ago and the first time they were in the single-digits since NAR started tracking the category in October 2008. Six percent of July sales were foreclosures and 3 percent were short sales. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 20 percent below market value in July, while short sales were discounted 14 percent.”
National Association of Realtors, “Existing-Home Sales Continue to Climb in July 2014“, 21 Aug 2014 (10:00) More
“We’re moving from a market that was driven by the overcorrection, driven by distressed asset sales, to a market that’s returning to being based on the fundamentals. It’s jobs and wages, it’s traditional homebuyers and particularly first-time buyers.”
Budge Huskey, President and Chief Executive Officer, Coldwell Banker Real Estate (New Jersey) More
Stock market indices
The S&P 500 index achieved a new record high of 1,992.37, exceeding its previous record of 1,987.98 on 24 Jul 2014, and approaching 2,000. At 17,039.49 the DJIA is nearing its record of 17,113.54 achieved on 22 Jul 2014.
||31 Dec 13
The shape of the day
Market indices today (Chart: Yahoo Finance)
Nightly Business Report: 21 Aug 2014 Watch
“The market is really in a sweet spot for U.S. stocks, fundamentals continue to be very good.”
Jeff Kravetz, Regional Investment Director, US Bank’s Private Client Reserve More
“We’ve had a paradigm where good economic news is bad news, but it’s clear this week that good news is just good news. The package of data today was strong and the market is responding accordingly.”
Quincy Krosby, Market Strategist, Prudential Financial Inc. ($1 trillion) More
||31 Dec 13
USD and AUD denominated indices over the last 52 weeks (Chart: Bunting)
Stock price movements
Portfolio stocks and market indices: price changes today (%) (Chart: Bunting)
PayPal spinoff rumour
Ebay rose 4.66% on a rumour that PayPal may be split from Ebay. (Chart: Yahoo Finance)
Ebay’s 4.66% price rise is driven by this morning’s rumour that PayPal may be spun off as a separate company. This is not a new issue – activist Carl Icahn has been pushing for this since at least Jan 2014 More
However tech news website The Information reported this morning that “Ebay has been telling potential recruits for the position of PayPal CEO that it’s considering spinning off the payments business as soon as next year, according to two people briefed on the conversations. The search for a new head of the unit began in June after former PayPal CEO David Marcus said he was leaving for Facebook.” More
eBay spokeswoman Amanda Miller has commented “The board will continue to assess all alternatives to create that long-term value and to enhance the growth and competitive positions of both eBay and PayPal. This position has not changed.” More
“Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel” (Movie: Wall Street)
Portfolio records today
Apple added a cent to yesterday’s record high close price, closing today at $100.58.
Portfolio stock prices
||31 Dec 13